OSUmetstud

yeah for sure. I was kinda pushing against the idea our immune systems can't work or something because of masks and/or distancing.

From what I can find in a google search (and I don't remember) the only articles specifically mentioning "2 weeks to flatten the curve" where from Trump and the Surgeon General. I remember others suggesting that this was going to be more of a slog than that. The second idea always kinda seemed more realistic to me.

We already do this though. There's still plenty of other viruses and bacteria that we are exposed to and live with on a regular basis. You'd literally have to live in a bubble to not develop proper immunity from exposure.

Lol. If we were talking about that year or two then sure. I was making a general point about death rate improvements which is far more tied to sanitation and public health.

Yeah. Toilets, antibiotics, and vaccines are really something.

The background annual fatality rate back then was about triple what it is today, hence why covid ends up as such an anomaly.

Watching things last night I think the Niagara Peninsula would have gotten the most. Any report a bit east of you on the escarpment?

I threw about 2-3" in Windsor and 4 to 5" for the Niagara Peninsula on our storm report.

In the aggregate if it hospitalized 5 times more kids than flu in a given year it's more dangerous imo at least.

I thought this was kinda interesting. I know there is extreme age-stratified risk on Covid, but some of the "less dangerous than flu for kids" thing is way overstated. In terms of hospitalizations, it looks like COVID blows seasonal flu out of the water. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2016-2017.html There was about 34K hospitalization under 17 along with 251 deaths https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html There was about 137k hospitalizations under 17 as of the end of December. There's been 258 deaths confirmed so far.

Lol yeah. They do an estimate for age groups. 65+ is about 20 percent.

This is the estimate for all infections. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html 4.1 million for 83 million infected. Approximately 2 percent.

Theres b cells and t cells that are tough to test for. We dont have lots of antibodies just circulating in our blood on the reg.

My uneducated opinion but given that sars cov 2 has a proof reading mechanism and that it only goes antigenic drift and not shift unlike flu I think its really unlikely we'd need a vaccine every year. Good to prepare logistical for those possibilities though.

We shouldn't ignore those who have been infected and there's a fairly wide range of estimates on that People are not acting normally across the US. Mobility is down and people are taking precautions. There is no hard line between when herd immunity is achieved and herd immunity isn't achieved. Young kids potentially being less susceptible to infection and less productive spreaders and non homogeneous population mixing may lower the herd immunity threshold a bit from a simple Ro calculation.

Do you think an alarm bell goes off when herd immunity is reached?

There was a 19% increase in accidental death due mainly due to overdose last year. The increase was far higher than the background trend. We can argue why those happened. But mental health has gotten considerably worse during the pandemic. Maybe it's the fear of the virus...maybe it's the negative media...maybe it's the lockdowns. But either way the other ways people suffer during this thing can't be cast aside.

Isn't this already a thing?

I get it. It's frustrating. There's 2 other vaccines with ample supply that are currently used. Theyre upholding their commitment to safety. You and I both know there's almost no appetite for poor vaccine outcomes in the US. I hope they look for a few day make recommendations and get back to business.

I guess we'll see who the real bills fans are.

Okay. So he supports the other government agencies that made the decision. Why is this a problem? It's exactly how the system is supposed to work. This is why they are constantly monitoring.

You live in hamburg. I'm not terribly surprised lol.

Indeed

Fauci is not part of the fda lol.

Definitely fair.