Thanks. I didn't realize that it was that cold there at the moment. The upwelling part makes sense. It doesn't show up very well on the broader SST charts.
Yeah I guess I was just saying that it's independent. It's based on average track error at the lead time. it's not model spread or confidence dependent.
Definitely has a good chance to take off tomorrow, but the shear has titled the vortex and the outflow is restricted to the north for now. Objective guidance has been running around T3.5, which supports strong TS, not hurricane.
So it looks like to me that a stronger storm initially through the next day or so pushes the storm southwest (shear vector is out of the northeast). The after, a stronger storm should help build the WAR to the west of it. If you have a weak pos those two things don't happen.
At initialization it's fine I think but given it doesn't spin up into much the whole run you might not put as much weight on it as normal. Intensity matters to track here I think.
The loop thing seems actually more supported in some respect. Henri gets absorbed into that weak MA trough and just sits underneath the eastern Canadian ridge. There's not much push for a proper landfall.
blatant trolling? Delete half the tread then. Good lord lol. PhineasC has double the post of anyone here and does that all the time.
it seems that some accept only the "right kind" of trolling.
Calling vaccines poison is gross.
Trolling over hospitalizations and deaths in the middle of a terrible pandemic that has killed 750000 Americans is gross.
Free speech (which is not really relevant on a private forum) is often gross.
Its incredible to me that you would read this thread with all its toxic trolling about hospitals filling up and anti vax rhetoric from your bros and think that people who just showed up the past few days are a problem. This place is gross and has been for awhile.
This was a community mask study. They were all flimsy cloth masks. I think there should have been more of an effort to get n95s to essential workers but alas.
I think the best done mask study in terms of RCT on a population level was the Danish one imo. There was a 23% risk reduction... unfortunately they powered the study before hand to find statistical significant at 50%.
The biological plausibility is all there on an individual level. Maybe it gets more washed out when people don't wear them properly and touch them too much.