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OSUmetstud

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by OSUmetstud

  1. They changed the guidance on this because people "blame" the country of discovery/origin and there's harassment and hate crimes against those individuals. There's efforts also to not name variants of the county of discovery also...to name it via the number instead of SA or Brazil or whatever.
  2. Someone from a few years ago would be very confused reading this headline.
  3. The cdc guidance if anything has been late to the party. Other scientists have been suggesting that there should be "benefits" to vaccination. The data is becoming more clear that the vaccine not only imparts good immunity but also reduces onward transmission. You dont want to construct this reality where you get a vaccine but then still have to do all the same shit you've been doing for the last year. If anything, that would increase vaccine hesitancy. I'm pretty sure it's just looking at your scenario as a low risk activity.
  4. Idk but the weekly excess deaths per the cdc are still in epidemic territory (I think its at least several percent above baseline?) I'm hoping that by early to mid summer it falls below that threshold.
  5. We need to get to the point where this is no longer a pandemic. We can't eliminate all risk. I'm a quite certain theres going to be some covid deaths every winter for years to come.
  6. Yeah, the risks of serious vaccine complications are on the order of 1 in 1 million or less that have been observed occasionally in past vaccines. Deaths are even more rare than that, even if Rasmus's ordeal is rare for a healthy person on my awful hockey team. US COVID Age Deaths 0-17 208 18-29 1764 30-39 5198 40-49 13997 These numbers are huge relative to any risk a vaccine would impart for younger and middle-aged people.
  7. Dr. Paul Offit who is like the vaccine guy discusses that in this short interview here. All the serious rare side effects that have occurred with vaccines occur within 6 weeks of receiving the vaccine. https://www.chop.edu/centers-programs/vaccine-education-center/video/what-are-the-long-term-side-effects-of-covid-19-vaccine This is also not a zero-sum choice. If you don't take a vaccine, you run a significantly higher risk of complications and/or death from covid.
  8. All those backwater areas of social media have some sort of astroturfing element to them. It's not all grassroots for sure.
  9. One piece of scientific evidence that there is safety issue. Not a news article. Not some backwater asshole on twitter.
  10. A doctor is asking you to provide some scientific evidence that the vaccines arent effective and you chalk it up as some sort of divided political issue? Why? Vaccines are not political. This is one of the greatest scientific achievements of modern medicine, much like the other vaccines that have come around over the past 100 years. Why do you do this?
  11. Yes, Q does have an unfortunately large following.
  12. Link me up to scientific literature saying that the covid vaccine is unsafe.
  13. I wasn't talking about you. I will listen to arguments about reopening businesses to 100% in Texas but I have a really hard time with the removal of the mask mandate at this stage in the game. Most of the population there should be vaccinated by the summer and there's no business cost to masks. Masks help but they aren't a panacea...and where people mask matters. If they are just masking at the grocery store but having their neighbors over for dinner without masks than they aren't really helping those individuals very much.
  14. I think the general theme going forward is that we may get a secondary uptick in cases soon but hospitalizations and deaths will continue to gradually fall through the spring and summer as a larger percentage of high risk folks get vaccinated. I'm somewhat concerned of another wave in the winter if immunity wanes enough/variants but I think the pandemic phase of this is mostly over.
  15. I don't blindly accept shit. Theres all kind of literature out there to feast your eyes on with respect to vaccine safety.
  16. I'm not skeptical of the efficacy of diet and exercise for individual health. I'm skeptical that's a reasonable way to fight an ongoing pandemic. None of the major players in public health from what I can see have though to go down that road. And I'm going to defer to their wisdom here. Comparing anti mask and anti vax rhetoric to this is really something though lol.
  17. Counter to the idea that if the US had more European obesity rate there would have been a much lesser effect. Italy Spain France and southern American countries don't have particularly higher obesity...certainly nothing like North America. I'm well aware that obesity is a considerable risk factor for covid generally.
  18. The same folks who were against/skeptical of social distancing, masks, vaccines, and any restrictions are the same folks pushing for excercise/diet mitigation. Just would like to point that out lol.
  19. I'd like to see the study. But Spain, Italy, France and some South American countries are clear counter examples.
  20. Right. I usually like to use the Cobb 11 technique on bufkit. It takes into account rh t and omega. It generally had like 12 or 13:1 for BUF which was wrong too. I imagine what happened is that the models misplaced the omega a little too high above the warm nose. If the omega verified closer to the warm nose that 12:1 turns into 8:1 quite easily.
  21. Kuchera algorithm does not know where the rh or the omega or the snow production is in the sounding. That's why they often fail. In mixing scenarios, even the 10:1 maps that people post often include sleet.
  22. Kuchera maps will work in Lake effect and maybe in pure mid level def/fronto well nw of a surface low. Elsewhere theyre just shit. Regardless, some weenie will post them again for the next one only to have their soul crushed come verification.
  23. Well objectively, forecasts are better today than they were 10, 20, 30 years ago. Having an impressive repertoire of pattern recognition is fantastic but it can only get you so far. I think the public demands more every year.
  24. See my professional judgement a few days ago suggested that this low would be put through the shredder and squeeze east west between the pv to the north and the ridge to the se resulting in a nam/emcwf like look. This was wrong but I don't believe I was model hugging. I sided with that idea instead of the idea of convection pumping up heights (which is a common model error, too).
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