OSUmetstud
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Everything posted by OSUmetstud
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Laura hit the least populated area in LA. This is no Katrina, but this is worse than Laura in terms of population affected.
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The surge at Shell Beach, LA is just above 7 ft.
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This place is like somebody's memory of a town, and the memory is fading. It's like there was never anything here but jungle
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Apparently the surge in New Orleans with Betsy was 10 ft or so. I think this might out-do that in New Orleans. For SE Louisiana, I'm definitely expecting over 15 ft. It's a much larger hurricane than Michael was.
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Laura was about 17-18 ft apparently.
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Overweighted childhood memories became dogma.
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06z ecmwf is not ideal, another adjustment to the right.
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It's probably more like 931mb because the extrap and dropsonde pressure are off by about 4mb.
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I think that's fairly normal in the strongest, right? The flight level winds and surface winds are close with the big max in between.
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Yeah, you're probably talking about a surge approaching 20 ft at the mouth of the Mississippi here as opposed to 28 ft observed in Katrina in Mississippi.
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The article I read suggested they were built for a 1 in 100 year storm in 2057. So they were assuming some sea level rise too.
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Do you have a webcam link?
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In terms of track comparisons, you'd have to think Betsy (1965) is somewhat comparable here.
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IKE is pretty impressive here. Large storm. Katrina was just over 120. This is 95 TJ.
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It's probably fine but I wouldn't want to bet my life on it.
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It was designed for a 1 in 100 year storm and 15 ft of surge.
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We're so used to rapid intensification the last decade or two that steady strengthening of like 2mb an hour all day seems disappointing.
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If you don't know why a storm is not rapidly intensifying, best to blame dry air...because why not?
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More likely that the rich have left and the poor have stayed
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You've been solid on catching that. Where is our diabatic ridge coupling???
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People kinda forgot that strengthening is proportional to strength. (much easier for a stronger storm to strengthen quickly)
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That's fair. Recon looks like it missed the center, so some of that might be because they didn't come in perpendicular.
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I'm not seeing that. The max wind band was about .2 degrees of the lowest pressure they found. It is a large storm with decent-sized eye and that might limit strengthening, but it's where it "should be."
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There's a large seeding operation in southern and central Alberta that's meant to decrease hail size. Even though I'm not sure it works, at least it gives me an out if my forecast for Calgary or Red Deer doesn't work out.
