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OSUmetstud

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by OSUmetstud

  1. There probably will be a blizzard right at the lakeshore. I've seen that in Oswego when I lived there too but from what I've seen BUF wouldn't issue a blizzard warning unless the conditions were more widespread than that. This storm doesn't have really cold air and high pressure on its nw flank to get really strong winds during the heaviest snowfall.
  2. Yeah I'd think so...obviously it can go too far if it really moves se.
  3. Yeah there's more of a squeeze as the ov shortwave is coming in from the northwest. You can see the se movement from the Toronto decrease and Rochester increase.
  4. That's not where the increase occurred. It's because you dryslotted less in the initial heavier qpf part. The se upper level low and surface low was bodily a bit further southeast.
  5. Possibly. Here is the nam3km at buf with steep 3 to 6km lapse rates of 7.1 c/km.
  6. These algorithms seem a little too keen on mixing on the rdps to me. These soundings look like snow to me.
  7. Wind and rain. It's been a shitty winter in Eastern NL so far. PEI and SE NB got the snow goods with this one. Well probably gust close to hurricane force tonight.
  8. Lol. I mean the that trough isn't pushing the storm off the coast. It's partially phasing with the southern low.
  9. It's a good discussion but I dont like calling that trough a kicker..its actually the reason this thing is getting tugged west and not slamming nyc and new england with snow.
  10. The Hudson Valley shadow for this event is really something. Very strong ese 850-900mb flow will do that.
  11. It's a red flag to me that the 12 is too crazy when the nam3km is less amplified.
  12. I think this is a good dynamic way to look at things. You want to be near the northwest edge of the 700mb jet where the mid level lift is maximized. Anywhere within the strong speed zone is going to at considerable risk of mixing and the dryslot.
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