OSUmetstud
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Everything posted by OSUmetstud
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@thecamizzx
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What is wrong with this thing?
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Night time for potential landfall unfortunately.
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I usually do most of my weather stuff on twitter nowadays but I'll provide some updates. The bifurcation between the gfs emcwf and gdps and their ensembles compared to the hmon hwrf and coamps is interesting. Hurricane models are near or just east of the avalon whereas the globals track over placentia bay/western avalon Peninsula. Makes a huge difference re: wind damage. This is not Igor. Igor was basically fully et/post tropical. It had been embedded with a 500mb trough in excess of 12 h...so much so that even though it made landfall in Cape Race it produce hurricane force winds all the way back northwest to Bonavista. Strong winds with Larry will be mostly found east and south of track. Also, rainfall doesn't appear to be a big deal with this one which was really Igor's most damaging element. The stationary front is well to to west over the Maritimes and not in east central Newfoundland like it was with Igor. If Larry does take the western avalon/placentia Bay track than the wind damage could be worse for stj and the avalon than it was for Igor.
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Gfs had the least track MAE of any of the operational models. The three bars to the right are concensus blends.
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I don't think those equivalent to Laura in insured losses calls are looking good right now either...
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the shrimp industry will be decimated for sure
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Oh sure. I'm just saying that from what we've seen today, I think they'll be alright. Am I not allowed to give an opinion on it?
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Katrina was a semi-man made disaster. This will actually be worse for a lot of areas in SE LA than Katrina was, meteorological speaking. The surge in NOLA will actually probably end up similar. The thing that's different is the levees.
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Laura hit the least populated area in LA. This is no Katrina, but this is worse than Laura in terms of population affected.
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The surge at Shell Beach, LA is just above 7 ft.
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This place is like somebody's memory of a town, and the memory is fading. It's like there was never anything here but jungle
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Apparently the surge in New Orleans with Betsy was 10 ft or so. I think this might out-do that in New Orleans. For SE Louisiana, I'm definitely expecting over 15 ft. It's a much larger hurricane than Michael was.
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Laura was about 17-18 ft apparently.
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Overweighted childhood memories became dogma.
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06z ecmwf is not ideal, another adjustment to the right.
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It's probably more like 931mb because the extrap and dropsonde pressure are off by about 4mb.
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I think that's fairly normal in the strongest, right? The flight level winds and surface winds are close with the big max in between.
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Yeah, you're probably talking about a surge approaching 20 ft at the mouth of the Mississippi here as opposed to 28 ft observed in Katrina in Mississippi.
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The article I read suggested they were built for a 1 in 100 year storm in 2057. So they were assuming some sea level rise too.
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Do you have a webcam link?
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In terms of track comparisons, you'd have to think Betsy (1965) is somewhat comparable here.
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IKE is pretty impressive here. Large storm. Katrina was just over 120. This is 95 TJ.
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It's probably fine but I wouldn't want to bet my life on it.
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It was designed for a 1 in 100 year storm and 15 ft of surge.
