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Everything posted by OSUmetstud

  1. I think that's fairly normal in the strongest, right? The flight level winds and surface winds are close with the big max in between.
  2. Yeah, you're probably talking about a surge approaching 20 ft at the mouth of the Mississippi here as opposed to 28 ft observed in Katrina in Mississippi.
  3. The article I read suggested they were built for a 1 in 100 year storm in 2057. So they were assuming some sea level rise too.
  4. In terms of track comparisons, you'd have to think Betsy (1965) is somewhat comparable here.
  5. IKE is pretty impressive here. Large storm. Katrina was just over 120. This is 95 TJ.
  6. It's probably fine but I wouldn't want to bet my life on it.
  7. It was designed for a 1 in 100 year storm and 15 ft of surge.
  8. We're so used to rapid intensification the last decade or two that steady strengthening of like 2mb an hour all day seems disappointing.
  9. If you don't know why a storm is not rapidly intensifying, best to blame dry air...because why not?
  10. More likely that the rich have left and the poor have stayed
  11. You've been solid on catching that. Where is our diabatic ridge coupling???
  12. People kinda forgot that strengthening is proportional to strength. (much easier for a stronger storm to strengthen quickly)
  13. That's fair. Recon looks like it missed the center, so some of that might be because they didn't come in perpendicular.
  14. I'm not seeing that. The max wind band was about .2 degrees of the lowest pressure they found. It is a large storm with decent-sized eye and that might limit strengthening, but it's where it "should be."
  15. There's a large seeding operation in southern and central Alberta that's meant to decrease hail size. Even though I'm not sure it works, at least it gives me an out if my forecast for Calgary or Red Deer doesn't work out.
  16. That's what it's showing. The forecast interpolation is SW of the actual position, therefore its intensity estimation is crap.
  17. Advanced Dvorak Technique doesn't always best describe it... On a serious note, that's a nice demonstration of the NW of track deviation that has been observed of late.
  18. It is, it may not be a cat 1 anymore.
  19. raw Advanced Dvorak Technique is up to T5.6. It's clearly strengthening. Just have to confirm how much via next recon.
  20. It looks like mission 8 is getting more impressive readings overall for whatever reason. They had 983 mb with a 16 kt wind at splashdown along with flight level winds of 82 knots and SFMR of 67 knots.
  21. Hurricane Whiskey and X-Ray seem fun.
  22. If the NHC didn't want regular folks calling storms "he" or "she" then they probably shouldn't use a list of names that clearly alternates between male and female sounding names. I know its more properly an "It" but I understand why people would call it a "she" or a "he."
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