OSUmetstud

Lightning CGs. It's just flashes. The GLM is an optical instrument. Doesn't know what type of lightning.

Lol

Enough. I'm a meteorologist who does this for a living offering my thoughts on what I think the most likely scenario is.

I'll be sure not to offer my thoughts next time on the most likely scenario since you and sno ski don't like it.

I dont think so. The central Atlantic ridge is tending to weak. I think it affects bermuda and exits right.

Every single member of the eps didn't make landfall. I'm not surprised that Eric compared a single op run to a hugo plot...and the storm still missed... Most of the guidance has the trough sitting on the east coast not cutting off that far southwest...and a trough in the position makes sense with a massive ridge over Ontario.

500mb is just all wrong for a US landfall. Theres a trough where you'd want a ridge and a ridge where'd you want a trough. So much has to change for it to happen. I'd put it at less than 10 percent...and that might be generous.

West or East? So anywhere?

It really doesnt look all that different. This include tropical storms. The other graphic just included hurricanes.

lol I didn't even look at that. I was just curious where from Day 5 onward it would look like. The average track error at Day 5 is 172 NM so it's not completely without basis. I mean you could run all storms from the current point and see what it looks like if you want.

These are the historic tracks in September/October within 200 NM of the NHC day 5 forecast point. Most recurve out to sea, a few makes to the US southeast, a few to the US northeast, and a few to Atlantic Canada.

BUF is running warm, about +2F this summer. It's more likely an instrument issue than UHI.

The winds here were probably like a 1 in 10 to 20 year event. We gusted to 85 knots in a March 2017 low that was 952mb or so and came up the same bay as Larry and that was strongest wind gust here in 40 years. It's the second highest gust for a TC here on record behind Ione in 1955. Far more damage than the March 2017 windstorm though. Probably second behind our snowmaggeden super blizzard in Jan 2019 in terms of anomaly and overall impact.

The surge on Placentia Bay (about 5 ft or so above high tide) might be one of the most impressive aspects of Larry.

Hurricane warnings are now up for the Avalon Peninsula given a track adjustment westward over the past day or so.

Agreed. My post is intended to give a ceiling for any potential reintensification. It would still be tough for Larry to regain major hurricane status given its broad windfield. Most likely it may just become more efficient at mixing down winds to remain a hurricane. Perhaps regain Category 2 intensity at best. Current maximum winds on the 11AM AST advisory is 90 mph sustained. Yeah I'm a little annoyed as this idea that it's weakening from the NHC. I think it was overestimated yesterday based on SFMR and lack of convection. So this morning's data is more indicative of its real intensity. It may have actually been weaker yesterday. The pressure fell 2mb in 95 minutes between passes and the microwave looked nice this morning.

@thecamizzx

What is wrong with this thing?

Night time for potential landfall unfortunately.

I usually do most of my weather stuff on twitter nowadays but I'll provide some updates. The bifurcation between the gfs emcwf and gdps and their ensembles compared to the hmon hwrf and coamps is interesting. Hurricane models are near or just east of the avalon whereas the globals track over placentia bay/western avalon Peninsula. Makes a huge difference re: wind damage. This is not Igor. Igor was basically fully et/post tropical. It had been embedded with a 500mb trough in excess of 12 h...so much so that even though it made landfall in Cape Race it produce hurricane force winds all the way back northwest to Bonavista. Strong winds with Larry will be mostly found east and south of track. Also, rainfall doesn't appear to be a big deal with this one which was really Igor's most damaging element. The stationary front is well to to west over the Maritimes and not in east central Newfoundland like it was with Igor. If Larry does take the western avalon/placentia Bay track than the wind damage could be worse for stj and the avalon than it was for Igor.

Gfs had the least track MAE of any of the operational models. The three bars to the right are concensus blends.

I don't think those equivalent to Laura in insured losses calls are looking good right now either...

the shrimp industry will be decimated for sure

Oh sure. I'm just saying that from what we've seen today, I think they'll be alright. Am I not allowed to give an opinion on it?

Katrina was a semi-man made disaster. This will actually be worse for a lot of areas in SE LA than Katrina was, meteorological speaking. The surge in NOLA will actually probably end up similar. The thing that's different is the levees.