OSUmetstud

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by OSUmetstud

  1. This is an old article. The NYT article which does a better job at describing the issue discusses why. Its likely that these people are being caught too late in their illness/infection when they get their positive test. Michael Mina discusses this back a few months ago on this week in virology. The average cycle to positive was 35 on the the RT-PCR meaning the majority of people are being caught after they are infectious. The point of care antigen testing thats being done more now is less sensitive so if you're positive from that you're more likely to fall in the infectious band. The high sensitivity RT-PCR test is still needed for clinic diagnosis. When people are late in their illness and show up at the hospital sometimes they have very little virus left. The inflammatory response is whats killing people generally not when they have a huge amount of virus.
  2. When there's a high volume of cases...its really difficult to do effective contract tracing. So its hard to say where the most likely source is of the majority of infections.
  3. More likely to catch staph or gonorrhea at the gym...
  4. It's because it seems like a very circuitous way to get to your end goal. Scientist and health folks certainly know that being overweight leads to poor health outcomes in general, but you're going to get far more bang for your buck with social distancing, masking then you are with hoping that some people listen and get healthier. I don't believe obesity is as big of a problem in Europe as it is in US, but they're still having a hell of a time.
  5. I think your point is well taken from an individual risk standpoint. You could potentially reduce your risk a bit by losing a bit of weight and exercising. The idea that we can exercise our way out of a pandemic though seems pretty tough, though.
  6. Nice. This estimates look much more reasonable imo than his previous model estimates. His previous model had the summer wave like double the size of the spring wave which just didn't seem reasonable and wasn't consistent with the CDC antibody studies. I still might peg the summer wave a bit smaller than he does. I'm not sure equal size makes sense.
  7. The population being infected does not represent a perfect slice of the US population. The implied IFR lowers since older folks are protecting themselves more than younger folks. You can see this reflected in the age stratified CDC commercial lab survey. https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#national-lab I know the CDC IFR estimates from March/April is slightly over 1% when adjusted for population distribution and afaik we have not cut the disease IFR by better treatments in excess of 60 percent. The UK hospitalization data is better than the US because its more nationalized. The in-hospital death rate there appears about 45% lower than the first wave. 16x early on is too high imo. The antibody data from that time averaged more like 12x.
  8. This is the result of broken govt. No one should have to choose between death/health and financial ruin.
  9. I think we're about 3 weeks away from 3000 deaths per day on average. The 21 day lagged CFR has been running near 1.8 percent or so.
  10. I agree he's trash. I'm still in the camp that scientifically speaking, I dont believing sending back stabilized patients well after peak infectiousness would significantly increase spread. Most of the spread would be from staff bringing in the virus from the outside.
  11. No. I didnt say any of that. I'm questioning why he's responsible for every single nursing home death in his state while I never hear a damn thing about any other governor and their responsibility for nursing home deaths. NY was hit harder than any of other state early. Nursing home deaths are proportional to community transmission.
  12. Why is Cuomo the only governor responsible for all the nursing home deaths in his state? Nursing home deaths are still about 40% of all deaths across the entire country. Nursing home deaths are a huge problem and a large percentage of deaths in Europe, too.
  13. The original comment seemed to be more about how bad things are getting (like NYC) instead of the proper use of field hospitals. But hey you do your thing.
  14. The hospitals were still overwhelmed whether the field hospitals were used or not. Seems like people don't understand its not just a physical bed and equipment issue but if staff is asked to care for more than typical patients or if non icu docs are having to take of icu patients then the standard of care begins to dropping quickly and the death rate goes up.
  15. Idk. But here you can watch this and see what you think. He said the vast majority of them would show up early. Plus, I think you have to consider what the chance of getting sick and dying from covid as being likely much higher probability than a theoretical vaccine side effect.
  16. The stage 3 vaccine trial is being run like any other vaccine trial. The thing that we won't have is long term safety data for the EUA. But, basically all vaccine complications would show up in the first 6 weeks...according to Dr. Offett who is a vaccine expert on the board meeting in December. Hopefully as more people get it and there's no issues and it stays very effective...less people will be hesitant.
  17. That's exactly how the trial went. These two groups of people went out into the world a few months. The placebo people got infected far more often than the vaccinated group.
  18. In pure numbers I agree. But if you adjust per capita you can see the worst areas currently are places like North and South Dakota which are decidedly rural.
  19. I think a good deal of the worst spread is now in rural areas actually. The virus took awhile to spread from the cities to the burbs to the rural areas.
  20. 23 percent reduction in infection from control to mask but it was underpowered so it didn't reach significance. Also didn't address whether others wearing masks protect you from them which was the original driver of wearing masks.
  21. Theres three cases here today. We've been trying to dam up covid with our travel restrictions but things are getting more leaky.
  22. The falls here are fairly long as we get the SST lag with temps and snow. But we dont seem to get great color. We dont get great radiational cooling and wet and windy falls can lead to a lot of yellow and brown leaves that get blown off the trees prematurely...
  23. I was a bit snippy I apologize. I know its not often easy for people to get up and move to another location. I love snow but I still hate the cold springs and early summers out here.
  24. I'm from Buffalo and I'm still an American. So I'm just saying if its so great there and you have the means then move.