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OSUmetstud

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by OSUmetstud

  1. Kuchera maps will work in Lake effect and maybe in pure mid level def/fronto well nw of a surface low. Elsewhere theyre just shit. Regardless, some weenie will post them again for the next one only to have their soul crushed come verification.
  2. Well objectively, forecasts are better today than they were 10, 20, 30 years ago. Having an impressive repertoire of pattern recognition is fantastic but it can only get you so far. I think the public demands more every year.
  3. See my professional judgement a few days ago suggested that this low would be put through the shredder and squeeze east west between the pv to the north and the ridge to the se resulting in a nam/emcwf like look. This was wrong but I don't believe I was model hugging. I sided with that idea instead of the idea of convection pumping up heights (which is a common model error, too).
  4. The old timers didn't know what was going to happen the next day. I'm sure they would have know the storm was going to come 200 miles north in the last 36 hours too....
  5. Heh. St. John's Newfoundland. Going alright. You? Were kinda on the wrong end of this one. Only going to get like 2" followed by freezing rain then rain.
  6. lol. I just notice people do that sometimes. If it's windy and there's riming you'll hear the snow hit the window, but to get proper sleet, you really need more melting aloft (like 1C or greater). This just doesn't in the right setup for sleet for WNY. Even though the GFS say sleet on the ptype maps, if you look the sounding, there's no where in the sounding above zero. The larger concern is that the models are overdoing qpf a bit given that the system is all front end warm advection and the dryslot is always closer than you think.
  7. I dont think you'll have to worry about sleet where you are.. Some idiots will no doubt report it after midnight tonight when the lift is lower down in the column and there's significant riming and poor snow growth.
  8. Needles are common around -5C. That's where the warm nose is at and it's pretty dry with weak omega. The lift will increase tonight and increase in depth with the incoming low, so they'll be clumps of different kinds of flakes then.
  9. The Burlington area got 12-15", on the 12th, then a similar area got 4-6" on the 13th. You won't find it in the Hamilton airport totals because they're much further inland. Those easterly lake effect bands usually form in very light low-level synoptic flow in arctic airmass, so they don't extend very far.
  10. There was 888k hospitalizations, 49 million infections, and about 12000 deaths in the 18-49 age group per the CDC through the end of November. 36% of that whole cohort. Small fatality risk from an individual standpoint, but a substantial hospitalization risk, and I believe it represents the largest mortality event in the US for young and middle aged adults since Vietnam.
  11. I wouldn't call 28% particularly close, but I get your point. We are racing against time. The 17% in the 65+ is nowhere near herd immunity, and those are the ones who would obviously most benefit from the vaccine.
  12. @BuffaloWeather You liked my post on the previous page that discussed that study in detail already... Lol
  13. If you look at that study further, they estimate 36% of 18 to 49 cohort infected but only 17% of the 65+. So the 0.4% is the effective IFR due to more younger people infected than old. If every age group was equally infected it would be about double that.
  14. There's definitely some increase in deaths due to missed care. I think that's a given. It's still rather small compared to the huge mortality event that is COVID. You might also consider that there's some decrease in other deaths. Like less childhood mortality (reduced disease, accidents) and maybe less workplace and car accidents. Of the 225 530 excess deaths, 150 541 (67%) were attributed to COVID-19. Joinpoint analyses revealed an increase in deaths attributed to causes other than COVID-19, with 2 reaching statistical significance. US mortality rates for heart disease increased between weeks ending March 21 and April 11 (APC, 5.1 [95% CI, 0.2-10.2]), driven by the spring surge in COVID-19 cases. Mortality rates for Alzheimer disease/dementia increased twice, between weeks ending March 21 and April 11 (APC, 7.3 [95% CI, 2.9-11.8]) and between weeks ending June 6 and July 25 (APC, 1.5 [95% CI, 0.8-2.3]), the latter coinciding with the summer surge in sunbelt states. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2771761
  15. https://www.foxnews.com/politics/luke-letlow-dead-heart-attack-covid-19 LSU Health Shreveport Chancellor G.E. Ghali told the Monroe News-Star that Letlow, 41, experienced the heart attack following a hospital procedure related to the virus. "It's devastating to our entire team," Ghali told the outlet, adding that Letlow had no underlying conditions. "It was just COVID," the chancellor said. LSU Health directed Fox News to Letlow family spokesperson Andrew Bautsch, who did not immediately respond to a request for more information.
  16. Yeah, some of that is biased towards early on in the year. Plus, there are scoring effects. The Bills are usually on top, so the basic defensive stats will look worse than they are for garbage time.
  17. I mean our pass defense is better than our rush defense for sure (this is ideal in the modern NFL, anyway). But this defense has been solid since the mid part of the season. It was really bad early on.
  18. I haven't seen any large studies on Ivermectin, but I've heard some of the optimism. Remdesivir seems to have very limited efficacy. Like it might work a bit on patients with low-flow oxygen, but otherwise not really. The steroids still remain the main effective drug for sure since the early days.
  19. We held Henry to 57 yards on 19 carries during the first game. Have you watched how this defense has played the past half of the season? It's been one of the best in the league.
  20. December 23rd update to December 30th update Week 48>+7361 55748 to 63109 Week 47>+2984 61323 to 64307 Week 46>+1536 63592 to 65124 Week 45>+882 63163 to 64045 Week 44>+541 62641 to 63182
  21. Then you would know that deaths from week 48 have gone up by 7361 since December 23rd then. 55748 to 63109. There's a huge lag because it's taking time to tabulate the unusually high death numbers. The numbers for the last several weeks have gone up on each daily update. They are not complete, unlike the bad flu season of 2017-2018, which are. https://www.foxnews.com/politics/luke-letlow-dead-heart-attack-covid-19 LSU Health Shreveport Chancellor G.E. Ghali told the Monroe News-Star that Letlow, 41, experienced the heart attack following a hospital procedure related to the virus. "It's devastating to our entire team," Ghali told the outlet, adding that Letlow had no underlying conditions. "It was just COVID," the chancellor said. LSU Health directed Fox News to Letlow family spokesperson Andrew Bautsch, who did not immediately respond to a request for more information.
  22. Nope. Listen, you've been shown data consistently through the beginning of the pandemic that this is not the flu and you continue to ignore it.
  23. *Data during this period are incomplete because of the lag in time between when the death occurred and when the death certificate is completed, submitted to NCHS and processed for reporting purposes. This delay can range from 1 week to 8 weeks or more, depending on the jurisdiction and cause of death. Read the caveats. The mortality data for the past several weeks is incomplete. If you look at it on a regular basis, the last several weeks go up.
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