OSUmetstud

There's definitely some increase in deaths due to missed care. I think that's a given. It's still rather small compared to the huge mortality event that is COVID. You might also consider that there's some decrease in other deaths. Like less childhood mortality (reduced disease, accidents) and maybe less workplace and car accidents. Of the 225 530 excess deaths, 150 541 (67%) were attributed to COVID-19. Joinpoint analyses revealed an increase in deaths attributed to causes other than COVID-19, with 2 reaching statistical significance. US mortality rates for heart disease increased between weeks ending March 21 and April 11 (APC, 5.1 [95% CI, 0.2-10.2]), driven by the spring surge in COVID-19 cases. Mortality rates for Alzheimer disease/dementia increased twice, between weeks ending March 21 and April 11 (APC, 7.3 [95% CI, 2.9-11.8]) and between weeks ending June 6 and July 25 (APC, 1.5 [95% CI, 0.8-2.3]), the latter coinciding with the summer surge in sunbelt states. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2771761

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/luke-letlow-dead-heart-attack-covid-19 LSU Health Shreveport Chancellor G.E. Ghali told the Monroe News-Star that Letlow, 41, experienced the heart attack following a hospital procedure related to the virus. "It's devastating to our entire team," Ghali told the outlet, adding that Letlow had no underlying conditions. "It was just COVID," the chancellor said. LSU Health directed Fox News to Letlow family spokesperson Andrew Bautsch, who did not immediately respond to a request for more information.

Yeah, some of that is biased towards early on in the year. Plus, there are scoring effects. The Bills are usually on top, so the basic defensive stats will look worse than they are for garbage time.

I mean our pass defense is better than our rush defense for sure (this is ideal in the modern NFL, anyway). But this defense has been solid since the mid part of the season. It was really bad early on.

I haven't seen any large studies on Ivermectin, but I've heard some of the optimism. Remdesivir seems to have very limited efficacy. Like it might work a bit on patients with low-flow oxygen, but otherwise not really. The steroids still remain the main effective drug for sure since the early days.

We held Henry to 57 yards on 19 carries during the first game. Have you watched how this defense has played the past half of the season? It's been one of the best in the league.

December 23rd update to December 30th update Week 48>+7361 55748 to 63109 Week 47>+2984 61323 to 64307 Week 46>+1536 63592 to 65124 Week 45>+882 63163 to 64045 Week 44>+541 62641 to 63182

Then you would know that deaths from week 48 have gone up by 7361 since December 23rd then. 55748 to 63109. There's a huge lag because it's taking time to tabulate the unusually high death numbers. The numbers for the last several weeks have gone up on each daily update. They are not complete, unlike the bad flu season of 2017-2018, which are. https://www.foxnews.com/politics/luke-letlow-dead-heart-attack-covid-19 LSU Health Shreveport Chancellor G.E. Ghali told the Monroe News-Star that Letlow, 41, experienced the heart attack following a hospital procedure related to the virus. "It's devastating to our entire team," Ghali told the outlet, adding that Letlow had no underlying conditions. "It was just COVID," the chancellor said. LSU Health directed Fox News to Letlow family spokesperson Andrew Bautsch, who did not immediately respond to a request for more information.

Nope. Listen, you've been shown data consistently through the beginning of the pandemic that this is not the flu and you continue to ignore it.

*Data during this period are incomplete because of the lag in time between when the death occurred and when the death certificate is completed, submitted to NCHS and processed for reporting purposes. This delay can range from 1 week to 8 weeks or more, depending on the jurisdiction and cause of death. Read the caveats. The mortality data for the past several weeks is incomplete. If you look at it on a regular basis, the last several weeks go up.

My 68-year old uncle is hospitalized with COVID19 in Pittsburgh. He's been feverish with lung and kidney issues. They have him on Remdesivir (whatever) and steroids. Hoping for the best there. This is the latest CDC estimate of total infections through the end of November. 91 million, 28% of the US population. 49 million in the 18 to 49 cohort, 36%. (9 million in the 65+ cohort, 17%) While the individual risk of dying of COVID19 as a young or middle aged adult is relatively low, only about 0.02%, given the number of people infected, its a large population-level mortality and morbidity event with about 12000 deaths or so and 888k hospitalizations. Excess deaths by age is quite high in that cohort because so many of have been infected, given the number of essential workers, and those who have been convinced this is just an older person's disease and have been taking little or no precautions. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html

The composite over the next 10 days look like the bootleg -NAO you see in El Nino patterns where pac air invades the country with downstream ridging. Its why you don't see lower heights in the US underneath the "block."

I hate the new radar gui. My God what shit.

My mom lives in West seneca on Kirkwood Dr. Im imagining they got it pretty good last night.

Im way more optimistic for the synoptic snow for BUF than I am the lake-effect. Weird lol.

I never seriously use NAM/RDPS out near 60-72 h. Mesomodels do screwy things with overall synoptic pattern as you go further out. It's just something to give pause. I'm not sure if it's right, but the ecmwf pattern is not good for lake effect for BUF and it's definitely a model I'd want in my camp if I wanted a significant event to unfold. The whole system is very convoluted. It's not a slam dunk. The upper level low is diving down in the OV/TN valley while a surface low is over Quebec. That evolution i think is causing some of the uncertainties. If you had a stacked low over Huron/south of James Bay we wouldn't be in a holding pattern right now.

Eh.. It's not great at depicting band strength. But the model literally has westerly flow at 850mb over the lake after the low departs Friday morning through Saturday. I wouldn't say that's exactly exciting if you like lake effect in BUF.

Yeah it's fine on a temporary basis (a few hours or something), but the idea that you're going to be getting 0.30"-0.50"/3 hr of freezing rain on the west side of the surface low is tough. If the precip were lighter/lift weaker then it would be easier to maintain the warm air aloft.

I don't buy the rdps/gdps with all that freezing rain west of the low center. They seem overzealous. It's really tough to drag in the low-level cold air while at the same time maintain a warm nose on the west side of a low. You'll have a tendency to go isothermal snow as lift increases.

All models are wrong, some give useful information.

That sounds right. 4-6"?

I think Saturday morning is the best chance for good LES in BUF now as some warm advection kicks on the tail end of the trough. At least with the synoptic low trending east, you end up getting more snow for Christmas morning.

I think the band starts Friday morning regardless of model qpf outputs. It's a bit sheared then for sure, but good enough for a moderate band of lake effect over the southern side of BUF. It gets better later in the day due to increased instability and less shear.

It doesnt look like a big lightning producer to me, maybe an odd strike or two. The inversion is close to 700mb which is fine for heavy snow in a cold airmass, but its not great for lightning as the -10c isotherm is so close to the ground.

The westward trends with the synoptic low are better for BUF, it increases the duration of southwesterlies on the backside.