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OSUmetstud

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by OSUmetstud

  1. Link me up to scientific literature saying that the covid vaccine is unsafe.
  2. I wasn't talking about you. I will listen to arguments about reopening businesses to 100% in Texas but I have a really hard time with the removal of the mask mandate at this stage in the game. Most of the population there should be vaccinated by the summer and there's no business cost to masks. Masks help but they aren't a panacea...and where people mask matters. If they are just masking at the grocery store but having their neighbors over for dinner without masks than they aren't really helping those individuals very much.
  3. I think the general theme going forward is that we may get a secondary uptick in cases soon but hospitalizations and deaths will continue to gradually fall through the spring and summer as a larger percentage of high risk folks get vaccinated. I'm somewhat concerned of another wave in the winter if immunity wanes enough/variants but I think the pandemic phase of this is mostly over.
  4. I don't blindly accept shit. Theres all kind of literature out there to feast your eyes on with respect to vaccine safety.
  5. I'm not skeptical of the efficacy of diet and exercise for individual health. I'm skeptical that's a reasonable way to fight an ongoing pandemic. None of the major players in public health from what I can see have though to go down that road. And I'm going to defer to their wisdom here. Comparing anti mask and anti vax rhetoric to this is really something though lol.
  6. Counter to the idea that if the US had more European obesity rate there would have been a much lesser effect. Italy Spain France and southern American countries don't have particularly higher obesity...certainly nothing like North America. I'm well aware that obesity is a considerable risk factor for covid generally.
  7. The same folks who were against/skeptical of social distancing, masks, vaccines, and any restrictions are the same folks pushing for excercise/diet mitigation. Just would like to point that out lol.
  8. I'd like to see the study. But Spain, Italy, France and some South American countries are clear counter examples.
  9. Right. I usually like to use the Cobb 11 technique on bufkit. It takes into account rh t and omega. It generally had like 12 or 13:1 for BUF which was wrong too. I imagine what happened is that the models misplaced the omega a little too high above the warm nose. If the omega verified closer to the warm nose that 12:1 turns into 8:1 quite easily.
  10. Kuchera algorithm does not know where the rh or the omega or the snow production is in the sounding. That's why they often fail. In mixing scenarios, even the 10:1 maps that people post often include sleet.
  11. Kuchera maps will work in Lake effect and maybe in pure mid level def/fronto well nw of a surface low. Elsewhere theyre just shit. Regardless, some weenie will post them again for the next one only to have their soul crushed come verification.
  12. Well objectively, forecasts are better today than they were 10, 20, 30 years ago. Having an impressive repertoire of pattern recognition is fantastic but it can only get you so far. I think the public demands more every year.
  13. See my professional judgement a few days ago suggested that this low would be put through the shredder and squeeze east west between the pv to the north and the ridge to the se resulting in a nam/emcwf like look. This was wrong but I don't believe I was model hugging. I sided with that idea instead of the idea of convection pumping up heights (which is a common model error, too).
  14. The old timers didn't know what was going to happen the next day. I'm sure they would have know the storm was going to come 200 miles north in the last 36 hours too....
  15. Heh. St. John's Newfoundland. Going alright. You? Were kinda on the wrong end of this one. Only going to get like 2" followed by freezing rain then rain.
  16. lol. I just notice people do that sometimes. If it's windy and there's riming you'll hear the snow hit the window, but to get proper sleet, you really need more melting aloft (like 1C or greater). This just doesn't in the right setup for sleet for WNY. Even though the GFS say sleet on the ptype maps, if you look the sounding, there's no where in the sounding above zero. The larger concern is that the models are overdoing qpf a bit given that the system is all front end warm advection and the dryslot is always closer than you think.
  17. I dont think you'll have to worry about sleet where you are.. Some idiots will no doubt report it after midnight tonight when the lift is lower down in the column and there's significant riming and poor snow growth.
  18. Needles are common around -5C. That's where the warm nose is at and it's pretty dry with weak omega. The lift will increase tonight and increase in depth with the incoming low, so they'll be clumps of different kinds of flakes then.
  19. The Burlington area got 12-15", on the 12th, then a similar area got 4-6" on the 13th. You won't find it in the Hamilton airport totals because they're much further inland. Those easterly lake effect bands usually form in very light low-level synoptic flow in arctic airmass, so they don't extend very far.
  20. There was 888k hospitalizations, 49 million infections, and about 12000 deaths in the 18-49 age group per the CDC through the end of November. 36% of that whole cohort. Small fatality risk from an individual standpoint, but a substantial hospitalization risk, and I believe it represents the largest mortality event in the US for young and middle aged adults since Vietnam.
  21. I wouldn't call 28% particularly close, but I get your point. We are racing against time. The 17% in the 65+ is nowhere near herd immunity, and those are the ones who would obviously most benefit from the vaccine.
  22. @BuffaloWeather You liked my post on the previous page that discussed that study in detail already... Lol
  23. If you look at that study further, they estimate 36% of 18 to 49 cohort infected but only 17% of the 65+. So the 0.4% is the effective IFR due to more younger people infected than old. If every age group was equally infected it would be about double that.
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