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Everything posted by CoastalWx

  1. Pretty stormy look on the EPS around the 12th give or take.
  2. Yep, I hear you. Get Weiss on that.
  3. The irony is that 95% of the time the super ensemble blend work. It's those high leverage situations where those models shit the bed for the event and you need to human input. It's definitely pervasive in private and NWS. Some call it a human over the loop...but you need that to help insert local climo knowledge/experience. Just hope the meteorologist over the loop is good.
  4. GFS op with troughing to Baja doesn't look like suppression to me next week for sure. There's the volatility.
  5. It's not a cutter though. Will get sheared out and redevelop near or under on the GFS.
  6. I did. It was a nasty cutter too that day lol. Wait, violence is not in your nature?? Lets get a couple of CJ events and test that theory.
  7. Scooter Smash. I'm cool...I feel like I've mellowed a bit as I get older. If were all in this together...it's more comforting. I also have been very fortunate and I take that into account. I get more aggravated at shitty rainy days and kids driving me nuts.
  8. Yeah I initially said post 12/5, but that was maybe 2 weeks ago? So don’t come after me with a pitchfork lol. I agree with Will for the 8-9 and then looks like after 12-12 is really one to watch. It makes sense. I remember even posting that when patterns change, it’s not instantly realized.
  9. I believe it will get better. I feel the tropics will help with that. Of course lingering troughing out west has been occurring so we may need to consider that? I think it will become “less hostile” at first, but then improve to a more -EPO? Just my guess.
  10. Late October and November was cold out west and into the Plains.
  11. Oh Tim. That’s not how it works sweetheart.
  12. Pacific starting to get that look in the 11-15 day. Still not sure how good I feel about that period around the 11-13 or so, but like Will said…..maybe we can get something prior? Sort of low chances on each, but we watch.
  13. They’re coming. If 12-12 is a cutter, I fully expect all hell to break loose.
  14. Let me give the disclaimer that I don't care if the heights over SC were 5 meters higher than 00z. I am talking from a more broader look. I'm not getting into the nitty gritty of minor details. For instance the GFS guidance definitely was a change. That deserves a discussion.
  15. I will say guidance around the 11th 12th 13th seems to be a little volatile. So it wouldn’t shock me if that window is a little shaky. But I mean overall I can’t complain. EPS really looks good to me. Its too early to get too deterministic with storm chances imo. I just try to look at it from a broad or holistic point of view. Everything I see looks pretty good.
  16. I see no issues on the EPS compared to 00z. Maybe even slightly better in 11-15 day.
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