CoastalWx
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Everything posted by CoastalWx
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And Nam too far SE
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The biggest totals will be west of them I think. I saw a lot of talk from many around here on TV about upslope and all that probably because hi res love to treat every 500’ hill as the Sierra. But it’s all about convergence as we spoke about. That area getting crushed is downsloped on SE flows. Atmosphere don’t care when there is a good convergence zone and moisture conduit off the deck.
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Yeah for the entire system Hudson valley ftw. Low looks a little east of earlier guidance.
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Here it comes for SWCT. Just as we suspected.
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I still think he’ll get a decent drink. Although he can’t hate me for a 5 mile STD error. STD being Stein Deviation
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Not sure there is an elevation component to this. These events usually are strictly convergence/frontal or meso low type deals.
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Stein as you are, as you were?
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Actually, the 18 nam was kind of what I pictured yesterday, but I know it’s the nam lol. But it kind of shows you what I was sort of envisioning. I find these events very difficult to predict, you gotta look at synoptics and sort of climatology and try to figure out where the best rain would be and not knee jerk model to model or run to run.
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It’s gonna depend on what develops over the water tonight and how that moves up to the north.
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Yeah, I could see that too, I mentioned that earlier. Plus they already had an inch or whatever today in some spots. I was thinking more tonight until Thursday. Earlier, I was kind of envisioning a little sort of low retrograding back and throwing some moisture in, becoming more stratiform tomorrow night to Thursday, but some of the models disagree now on that, so it might be closer to Worcester.
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Maybe it’s closer to Western CT, but you gotta remember Low will develop later on tonight and at night as that happens the LLJ increases just saying to watch that area that’s all. Maybe it’ll be more progressive.
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I just spent as far as SNE goes. We’ll see.
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I still like my two jacks. The only one I’m a little shaky on is in the east because it could be Worcester or could be somewhere east of that.
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Like that scene in war of the worlds when the bodies are floating down the river.
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Gonna be nasty Berks to the Bodies next 6 hrs.
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Man lets see that. Lets wash out Oxford.
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Don't think we see more east of berks until later tonight.
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Precision steining for Tolland.
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Absolutely. Glad we are rolling back regulations. Makes total sense.
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Still some disagreement, which is no surprise with these cold season synoptics in the warm season. I do think someone’s gonna get dumped on, especially if we have these little embedded meso lows to enhance the rainfall locally.
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Garbage model. Although I still like SW CT Jack and a secondary one out east. Models did seem to back off a bit in wrn CT but it could easily come back so no need to knee jerk.
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Meanwhile Nam will stein western CT. I’ll toss that.
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Gonna setup a gravy train further east at the end of jts run. That depiction makes sense overall on HRRR.
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00z hrrr shows you how to flood western CT
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Gene that video is nuts. Man what a mundane stretch here compared to 95% of the rest of the country.
