CoastalWx

The illustration also shows you what I was saying about that kicker. Look how that Ridge axis goes from Northern California right into the Canadian prairies. You definitely don’t want to see that, you want to see that more oriented north to south.

It certainly has potential of more than that in the next 10+ days or so… But I’m looking at it from a point of view where we can get at least two chances within a small window perhaps more chances over say a 20 day period where we have an opportunity to make a run for a bit. I’m not looking at this from a KU perspective at all.

Never mind the outcome, verbatim… That’s what I’m kind of looking for for something other than a glancing blow… Something that will give us at least a couple of chances.

OK, this 12z euro run is exactly what you hope to see if you want something conducive. Look at that ridge over the West Coast right into Alaska. You don’t have that stupid nagging trough over Alaska That’s kicking down the ridge and just shitting on us all the time. That pokes right up into Santa‘s fanny. That’s what you want. Whether it happens or not, who knows.

Ahh see the euro is another solution that might work and kind of deliver something high-end advisory, low and warning. It actually meanders the cut off down south so that the confluence weekends north of New England after day seven and allows a weak low to come up the coast and bring some snow. Then the trough sharpens in the plains and perhaps tries to deliver something after that timeframe.

Yeah sometimes it extends there, but I notice it more in the larger events with strong erly to nerly flow. i’m trying to take out any recent confirmation bias in my head… But there might be a meteorological reason too.

It was maybe him, but I think HM did this too. No disrespect to him, he’s a good met…but at times I was questioning that.

There is something about that Rhode Island semi Snow hole. I’ve seen it in too many storms. I know someone will come back and say blah blah Blizzard of 78… But there’s been enough of those for me to think it might be almost a climatological standing wave issue where perhaps they are somewhat always in the sub zone.

It’s like that guy who used to use some sort of voodoo and predict when there would be a storm a month out on the East Coast. I forget who it was but he would always say something like I predict they’ll be a major East Coast storm between January 10 and 20th. And he’ll give himself like 500 miles either way of leeway and oh by the way, the odds of something between January 10 and January 20 in general probably aren’t half bad anyways lol, because of Climo.

Yep

I don’t have the energy to do a nice illustration of this, but go on the website like tropical tidbits, pick the North America sector, and look at the 500 MB height anomalies on the GEFS. You’ll see a trough over the Bering Sea, a ridge sort of positively tilted from California up to the Western Canadian prairies, and a trough over the Midwest that looks like it should do something here. Now go to hr 174. Notice that Bering sea trough sends a s/w into the nrn plains of the US while the east coast trough almost tries to sharpen to make things interesting. However, that nrn plains s/w acts as a kicker and does not allow it to sharpen to bring a low up the coast. But here is the fun part, that s/w digs enough the of course the ridge retros into AK just enough to sharpen that and bring a more messier system into the northeast. That’s been our luck. Go forward through day 8 and you’ll see. Now the reason why I’m saying it’s a non-0 chance is because it wouldn’t take much to bring that storm up the coast and at least graze us with a high-end advisory snow… But it just goes back to what I’ve been saying there’s just too much crap interfering in this flow.

Love when people do that. The ole CYA. And then if the outer banks get snow, they’ll claim victory because that’s part of the “East Coast.”

I saw that on the AI ensemble. What he conveniently left out is that that trough does not amplify and just sort of broadens and flatten out because of another kicker in the flow and also the fast flow period. it’s not a 0% chance, but I think the 15th is still a low probability. For us anyways.

People only like him because it’s always positive all the time. Nobody on this forum likes reality.

Canadian trying for the 15th, but it’s the Canadian. Even a weak system after that. for the love of God, just something break right for once.

It is fake because I slept through it.

12z GFS is close to something nice but it’s the same crap we’ve seen with just troughs folding over each other and fast Northwest flow out of Canada.

Just keeping it real

Enjoy up there. Looks decent in your hood to Winni.

It’s mild aside for a day. A lot of very mild nights and mild days. Maybe Thursday is a tad AN and finally cooling off later Friday and the following weekend. I don’t know why this is hard to accept. Nobody said a week of 60.

It’s blood red on all guidance. Be mad at the pattern not me. Like I said over a week ago. Garbage pattern.

It’s pretty mild dude. Accept the mud, it’s the only mud you got.

It’s a shame we get a high building in and can’t get more than a flip to snow at the end because that is a good SWfE track, airmass just sucks of course. Maybe all snow LCI to LEW?

Congrats on 55 tomorrow evening. And probably again next week.

I’ll say this, if we can salvage something on the 15th, it would go a long way in changing the tenor of this season. Still looks like a low chance, but not impossible.