TheDreamTraveler

Nasty dew point at 74. I really can't remember a summer that's been this humid this much. I haven't looked at raw data but I swear I don't remember the dew being so bad for so long.

We go through this every year pretty much when it hits July/Early August people just start calling the season cancelled because for some reason they expect storms to form in June and July lol. Season doesn't truly start until middle/late August but I guess you can't get it through peoples dense heads no matter how many times you explain to them. I guess that's why people end up believing other stupid things no matter how much proof you show them. Once they are decided on something it's very hard to change their perspective.

The storms curved and angled slightly over. Been pouring heavily here now for a while. I thought we were gonna miss it too earlier

Besides Irene and Sandy in 2011/2012 the east coast really hasn't been hit by anything major. There was the scare with Florence which was forecast to come in as a category 3 or 4 but then weakened dramatically before landfall. Then there was Joaquin in 2015 that almost pulled another Sandy. Then Matthew and Dorian coming right up to the east coast of Florida but turning at the last second. So many close call examples that it's amazing none of them struck at full power.

Would be wild if we got a December system this year. 2020 and 2021 didn't even have that. Quite rare to have anything develop. Last time we had anything develop was a subtropical storm in December during 2013's season which was a very quiet year overall. You then have to go back to 2007, 2005, 2004 and 2003 for December systems.

Some rain anywhere in the eastern US would be nice. The US had its driest October since 1895 in some places. Hopefully this thing recurves north.

lol 12z GFS has that hurricane in the Caribbean bottoming out to 915mb on Nov 16th. Definitely seems like there's a signal for something to develop though but that's still 6 days or so before it shows anything actually developing.

12z GFS is pretty wild. Has at least 4 systems develop through the entire run and possibly a 5th storm lol

It's possible we get to our S named storm in the next week or two. Maybe the models really weren't wrong about this potentially being hyperactive. Obviously depends if all 3 areas develop but still.

And now the global operational 0z GFS just drops the hurricane in the Caribbean completely lol

I thought so too. That Hazel graphic really shows how intense and unique of a storm it was. You rarely get a strong hurricane like that that late in the season barreling up the whole east coast with winds that extreme that far inland and north. Though it transitioning also helped the wind speeds too.

This season has been one of the weirdest ones I can think of. So many things have seemed out of sync. From the formation of Beryl in late June becoming the earliest cat 5 on record and the strongest storm that far east in the Atlantic that early in the season beating many records. And it went through the graveyard in early July as a category 5. Then things became very quiet. 8/20 through 9/23 which is the climatological peak of the season was the quietest stretch of ACE accumulation since 1994 which is to this day one of the quietest seasons recorded. Then everything that happened with the African monsoon ITCZ during August/September breaking a record for being so far north which was cutting off tropical waves so they could not develop. Now we're in October and suddenly the Atlantic thinks it's early September with three hurricanes spinning at once a few days ago with 2 at the same time both breaking records at the same time being the most powerful hurricanes that far east in October. And I guess we can include how bizarre Milton's track was. Either way it's been a very strange season for sure.

Seeing this thing still as a category 5 when we're this close to landfall is very concerning. I know it's going to weaken but it really is going to be a nail biter seeing how much it weakens. Intensity forecasts have always been the hardest thing about hurricanes. Forecasting track has gotten exceptionally well over the past 2 decades but intensity still has a lot to work on.

Rita was 895mb in the Gulf and is currently the strongest recorded for that area

Yep noticed that too. It's been offline the past 10-15 minutes. It's been a while since a hurricane was forecast to take a direct hit on a city this populated.