3/16/26 Severe Weather Event Thread (Moderate Risk) | Latest: 15% TOR, 60% WIND, 5% HAIL

[Scraff]

Tor Watch just went up for me here in Hoco. 

[LP08]

Tor watch for basically all of LWX.  

[ibawahu]

My wife and son are at home in the Marshall/Delaplane area.  Watching that curved area in the line hoping it goes to the east but it is going to be close.

[Warm Nose]

Thunder here

[EastCoast NPZ]

The radar looks a lot better than the ground truth here.  We got moderate rain for about 15 minutes and light rain now.  A couple rumbles of thunder.  Sounds like the good stuff is to my southeast. 

[arlwx12]

Loudoun County public schools (for now) is NOT dismissing early, will hold students if its' not safe at regular dismissal time.

Home | Loudoun County Public Schools

(text)

We are closely monitoring the severe weather forecast for our area later today. As you may know, weather systems like this can change quickly in timing and intensity, making it challenging to predict exactly when the worst conditions will arrive. 

At this time, we are NOT planning an early dismissal; however, we are canceling all after- school activities and programming across campuses and administrative offices. Current forecasts suggest that the strongest conditions could occur during the window when buses would be transporting students home if we dismissed early. Out of an abundance of caution, we do not want to risk buses and student drivers being on the roads during potentially hazardous weather.

We are staying in regular contact with local emergency management and reviewing the latest forecasts throughout the day.

If conditions were to become unsafe at the end of the school day, we will hold students at school until it is safe to release them. We will provide families with updates if this occurs. Our priority is always the safety of our students and staff, and we would rather delay dismissal than send buses and families into dangerous conditions.

We will continue to keep you updated throughout the day if anything changes.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

It looks like that line over Virginia will arrive in dc metro right as schools are doing their early dismissal lol. 

[EstorilM]

Wow just got hit with a tornado warning, basically going straight into Sterling LWX office.

[Warm Nose]

That bow line east of 81 is headed right for me and means business. Getting pretty noisy and dark out

 

[clueless]

Just got a warning 

[Mrs.J]

Just got put under a Thunderstorm warning here. Was at the store heading home. Balmy and windy. 

[LeesburgWx]

I am surprised at the warning being more for Leesburg than west of Leesburg. Storm looks intense on radar. I am in falls church right now for work and am missing it. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Hook echo just north of Warrenton?

[WxUSAF]

Seems like the clouds are breaking behind this line moving into NoVA. Is that going to be too late to destabilize and will it have eaten all the tasty cape?

[dailylurker]

13 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said:

Some crapvection forming along 95 between the main batches

Its pissing me off. It kinda looks like it's weakening. We need that area to clear out or were cooked imo. Just a line of gusty showers later if not.

[TSSN+]

Let’s see what this does 

[H2O]

This place 

[AmericanWxFreak]

This place 

[arlwx12]

Long snip from the latest LWX AFD: (bolding mine)

(snip)

Multiple rounds of severe weather look to impact the area today. The
1st wave is now ejecting across central VA and the Shenandoah Valley
putting it into the Baltimore/DC metros around or just after noon. A
secondary batch of storms is ejecting out of I-77 corridor down
across the New River Valley/western NC mountains with another
area of storms down around eastern NC. These two areas of storms
will be the main show heading mid to late afternoon ahead of
the squall line feature which looks to develop just in time from
the evening commute.

Still looking at a high impact severe weather event across the
region. The Storm Prediction Center has maintained the Moderate Risk
(Level 4 out of 5) area which extends from east of the Blue Ridge
Mountains to the Chesapeake Bay. The one exception to this is
northeastern Maryland which is in an Enhanced Risk (Level 3 out of
5) given the cooler bay waters could weaken approaching convection.
(snip)

With the degree of deep-layer shear in place, any of the pre-frontal
discrete cells will pose a risk of becoming a supercell.
These would be most conducive to producing a tornado, particularly
if the enlarged 0-1 km and 0-3 km hodographs hold as true as
forecast soundings depict. However, some of the high-resolution
guidance show a slew of cells firing up at once which would favor
more competition amongst them. This would diminish the tornado risk
as multicell convection dominates. At the same time, another squall
line is likely to form off the higher terrain this afternoon. While
the vertical shear vector does not align perpendicular to the
forming line, enough angle between the two should favor evolution
into a quasi-linear convective system (QLCS). These are prone to
producing spin up tornadoes along any kinks in the line. Where this
line bows out is where the 70 to 80 mph wind gust possibility
will be maximized. All of this slides eastward at a fairly hefty
speed, perhaps 40 to 50 mph. Severe convection is expected to
near the I-95 corridor during the evening rush hour before
exiting the Chesapeake Bay by the early/mid evening hours. Some
weakening is possible east of I-95 as the system begins to
ingest the colder Chesapeake Bay waters.

 

[Wxtrix]

under a severe storm warning. breezy with a white-out of rain, and some thunder and lightning. it got so dark we had to turn the lights back on.

I hope this is it for me. i do not want severe wx.

[ibawahu]

The radar hook in the Marshall area kind of dissolved.  Wife reported heavy rain but winds were not terrible.

 

[Warm Nose]

Whole lotta rain for a brief period but no wind or rotation thus far

EDIT: Looks like it passed. Surface wind was non-existent.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Seems like the clouds are breaking behind this line moving into NoVA. Is that going to be too late to destabilize and will it have eaten all the tasty cape?

Was wondering that as well 

[87storms]

The current radar which shows a bow aimed at Frederick is making me kinda unproductive at work rn

[TSSN+]

7 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Let’s see what this does 

Heavy rain and wind gusts to maybe 45 nothing to write home about. 

[WVclimo]

Heavy downpour.  No wind or thunder.  Looks like the severe stuff is just to the southeast of me with those warned cells.

[09-10 analogy]

70/50 % on the TOR watch, 80/70 % on wind. Those are pretty robust. 

[LeesburgWx]

My daughter in Leesburg is sheltered in a basement at school - my wife was trying to get her now and they said she can't get her.

[Pityflakes]

Interesting things happening west of leesburg

[Warm Nose]

My peak gust was literally only 12mph and zero surface rotation. Definitely lightening up after the line passed. It looked formidable but kinda fizzled out with only brief heavy rain.