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    South Hill, VA

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  1. Absolutely stunning...
  2. Not sure if this has been posted yet. Here are the storm reports thus far:
  3. Yep, getting real close...
  4. Wow, a lot has changed since last night. I wasn't expecting to wake up to this...
  5. It got noticeably dark in Virginia a lil while ago. Didn't have solar glasses, but the shadow effect was good enough for me.
  6. Looks like there's potential for severe weather on Thursday and Friday. Friday seems to have the biggest potential for a greater threat. Thursday Friday The wording from the SPC for Friday is interesting... ...Mid South and Southeast to the middle and southern Atlantic Coast... While a large degree of uncertainty exists with respect to timing/location, evolution of severe convection is expected across a rather broad area of the southern and eastern U.S. Friday ahead of the advancing cold front and associated/digging upper system. As enhanced/diffluent flow aloft spreads across the area ahead of the upper system, a favorable kinematic environment for organized/fast-moving bands of storms will exist. The main questions at this time revolve around timing of synoptic features, and evolution of prior -- and ongoing -- convection, and related effects on heating/destabilization potential. Given these questions, a broad 15%/slight risk area is being included across what appears to be the zone of greatest risk at this point, with later adjustments to area and risk level likely to be required. Along with risk across portions of the Mid Atlantic area ahead of the anticipated track of the main vort max, the broad zone of enhanced/diffluent northwest flow aloft across a large portion of the southeast U.S. would also support potential for rather widespread damaging wind risk with multiple, upscale-growing bands of storms through the afternoon and evening hours.
  7. We could see some severe weather Monday. Dr. Greg Forbes Torcon forecast:
  8. SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook: ...Mid-Atlantic Vicinity... Bands of pre-frontal convection will continue to lift northeast across the region this morning, eventually moving offshore during the afternoon. These storms, mainly across eastern NC/VA will pose a threat for strong, locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado as strong southerly deep layer shear continues to stream across the region and rich boundary layer moisture hugs the coastal plain. As midlevel height falls occur and somewhat steeper lapse rates overspread the area as the upper trough becomes increasingly negatively tilted, additional storms may develop across the Piedmont of NC/VA. However, given the amount of morning/early afternoon convection, it is unclear how much airmass recovery/destabilization may occur. Additionally, hi-res CAMs vary in coverage and intensity of afternoon convection. Should storms form, a severe threat could accompany them, but confidence is too low for introduction of any higher probability risk at this time. Further north toward PA thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon as modest destabilization occurs. Steep lapse rates with cold temperatures aloft in the vicinity of the northeastward advancing surface low and upper trough will lead to a marginal hail threat and perhaps some gusty winds given strong deep-layer shear and fast storm motions. While unlikely, a weak/brief tornado can not be ruled out in the presence of backing low-level winds ahead of the surface low. However, modest boundary layer moisture and weak instability should limit the overall threat.
  9. Storm reports thus far...
  10. Are some models showing storms forming in the afternoon? I thought this threat would be for in the morning.
  11. How reliable is the NAM 3km?
  12. SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook:
  13. From Dr. Greg Forbes' Facebook page:
  14. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0625.html
  15. Off and on sun down here in Virginia.