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Huriken

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About Huriken

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    South Hill, VA

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  1. We could see some severe weather Monday. Dr. Greg Forbes Torcon forecast:
  2. SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook: ...Mid-Atlantic Vicinity... Bands of pre-frontal convection will continue to lift northeast across the region this morning, eventually moving offshore during the afternoon. These storms, mainly across eastern NC/VA will pose a threat for strong, locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado as strong southerly deep layer shear continues to stream across the region and rich boundary layer moisture hugs the coastal plain. As midlevel height falls occur and somewhat steeper lapse rates overspread the area as the upper trough becomes increasingly negatively tilted, additional storms may develop across the Piedmont of NC/VA. However, given the amount of morning/early afternoon convection, it is unclear how much airmass recovery/destabilization may occur. Additionally, hi-res CAMs vary in coverage and intensity of afternoon convection. Should storms form, a severe threat could accompany them, but confidence is too low for introduction of any higher probability risk at this time. Further north toward PA thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon as modest destabilization occurs. Steep lapse rates with cold temperatures aloft in the vicinity of the northeastward advancing surface low and upper trough will lead to a marginal hail threat and perhaps some gusty winds given strong deep-layer shear and fast storm motions. While unlikely, a weak/brief tornado can not be ruled out in the presence of backing low-level winds ahead of the surface low. However, modest boundary layer moisture and weak instability should limit the overall threat.
  3. Storm reports thus far...
  4. Are some models showing storms forming in the afternoon? I thought this threat would be for in the morning.
  5. How reliable is the NAM 3km?
  6. SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook:
  7. From Dr. Greg Forbes' Facebook page:
  8. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0625.html
  9. Off and on sun down here in Virginia.
  10. SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.hh
  11. Wow. My area went from a marginal to an enhanced risk.
  12. Something to watch late next week, perhaps... From Dr. Greg Forbes' Facebook page: EDIT: I'm not sure how to post images from Facebook, but the potential severe threat is for 5/4 and 5/5. EDIT AGAIN: I figured it out.
  13. How long has this storm been going on?
  14. Fortunately, that storm didn't do much. Just got some gusty winds and rain.