Moderately Unstable

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  1. La dee dee been offline all day wonder what's going on on Amwx!..... .... .... .. ... and we're walking awayyyy slowly, okkkk running, ok great running OK SPRINTING JUST GOTTA KEEP SPRINTING!!!!!! That was quite the raging dumpster fire. So my impression of the data fwiw, is, they almost definitely did keep 5 for continuity and messaging. This is not a well developed country for starters. They don't have a robust well educated meteorological media to widely explain how, a high end cat 4, is just as bad for them impact wise as a 5. From the perspective of anyone in the storms path, they won't know the difference. Also, most don't speak English, a FEW may read the Spanish key points, MOST only know the NUMBER. So that convo would go..."oh, its a 4 now? Ok we don't have to leave, it's *weakening*". As several posters state, the nhc has to balance a lot of things when they make their cat call. For the same reason, zeta, likely a 3 at landfall, was kept a a 2. Don't want people rushing onto the roads right before landfall. As an online forum we can indeed look at the data and interpret the data in a pure scientific lens. Also, the final recon did show some higher level winds on the exit, and several vdms were in the marginal camp, to the extent that at the nhc one could probably overlook some of the data and "blend" the overall picture to cat 5. Of course, we aren't in Miami, most of us at least, so, we can't say if the hunters reported additional data that warrants 160. Based on reported sfmr, fl winds data though, I doubt that, along with those on here qualified to opine on such. Who wants to bet that this isn't the last hhunters storm of the season *raises hand*? Look I hear ya, but we said that after Delta. Then Zeta. Then Eta. And now Iota. I'm too old to go to a frat party! And the water is still quite warm. Any time shear remains low through probably Jan, we are not out of the woods. Maybe we are done with 5s. Maybe majors. Then again I thought that after the first couple of greeks so I am out to lunch now and I'm discarding my own expectations lol. 2020, expect-the-unexpected TM.
  2. I believe that big spikey spike in the plot you linked in that Twitter post, the one in October, is Wilma, 95mb/24 hrs. You can see that it really blows everything else out of the water, no pun intended.
  3. Wasn't it a couple pages back that everyone was saying they weren't going to upgrade it? That question is rhetorical.
  4. It's still marginal. One can make a relative case that the various flight level winds and pressure continue to support between 155 and 160. I agree that the appearance is a touch worse than earlier this am when it was strengthening at an astounding 10mb/hr. It's a question of whether or not they want to go with the earlier unquestionable cat 5 data or the current marginal 5 data.
  5. Or they may do it at 10am, when their next update is. Do they issue special advisories for upgrades? They didn't do that for the cat 4 designation.
  6. It was a ship report from inside the eye. Can't even imagine what that message was like lol.
  7. Well, the alpha pattern is normally a bunch of left turns, so, they're flying a normal pattern. Last several entries to the storm have been from the NE, so the first turn was in the SW. They did abbreviate the SE leg on this pass. Otherwise though, here they flew in from the NW, so they turned left in the SE. Same pattern, different entry point, different directions. But of course, with Eta they encountered unsafe conditions at one point and had to abort. That could certainly happen too.
  8. Holy crap. What did I wake up to. In the words of a former met prof, that's cat 5 country. I'll be darned.
  9. There is a hook echo with a classic ball right now very close to the KDIX radar, next to Lumberton, NJ (also fairly close to the forecast office).
  10. I did not have that luxury, that is a clear benefit to living in Florida! Honestly with everything happening this year, any piece of good news or "humanity can do it" piece brightens my mood. That was indeed very cool to watch. Mmmm that sounds tasty. And/or discombobulating. Either way I like that the NHC is branching out into mixology.
  11. Yes, something is clearly going on, and has been, with the servers that support the goes data feeds. Both goes 16 and 17 meso sectors 1 and two...so, 4 in total..are all centered on different US states. It's marginally comical but also problematic, and looks to be a glitch or hack, at present 3 of the 4 are centered on Florida. The larger scale views are still working. Extremely off topic but brief FYI--SpaceX is launching their first operational crewed mission to the ISS in around a half hour, it's being streamed live now on various platforms, channels etc. Historic night for NASA, so if you like science, and rockets, you may enjoy watching that! I will be! Ok back to Iota--giving new meaning to the term "I don't give one Iota". From now on that should probably be, "I don't give a theta". You know what's odd, I didn't connect the dots between the launch and the meso sector change over, even though I literally included them in the same thought. Lol. But still, it's odd. They need one centered there. Not 4. Right? Or am I misunderstanding how meso sectors work? It's the same friggin satellite, it's just the areas they are putting to the server with a specific level of zoom.
  12. Just to provide an update, the 7pm advisory came out around 6:38pm, 155 km/hr//~100mph//85kt Cat 2 (97-98mph), 964mb, continues to expect a Cat 4 landfall.
  13. That's some strong coffee! Jeez, if I had coffee that looked like that, I'd have to apologize to my gym, other motorists...and probably my toilet. It appears others beat me to the punch on that line of remarks. // // // // From the sounding, it looks like 964 was the measured pressure, Hawkeye is right on the extrapolated pressure. That is quite the drop from 4pm (which was at 974). Wind speeds are lagging the pressure measurements, which does check out since, again, mass momentum time yada yada yada (you don't want another long dissertation I assume). Just to post some of the useful log components, bolding mine: 224000 1351N 07922W 6971 03062 9972 +105 +105 101058 060 052 013 00 224030 1350N 07923W 6966 03063 9967 +097 //// 099061 064 053 009 01 224100 1348N 07924W 6973 03052 9960 +090 //// 098060 061 053 007 01 224130 1346N 07925W 6967 03051 9965 +097 +097 096061 062 055 011 00 224200 1345N 07926W 6971 03044 9960 +099 +099 095058 061 059 017 03 224230 1343N 07927W 6964 03045 9947 +109 +109 105064 071 060 015 00 224300 1341N 07928W 6978 03026 9928 +109 //// 111064 070 062 007 01 224330 1340N 07929W 6965 03033 9912 +101 //// 110064 065 062 006 01 224400 1338N 07929W 6968 03022 9897 +100 //// 112065 067 063 005 01 224430 1337N 07930W 6961 03021 9897 +111 //// 109068 069 062 004 01 224500 1335N 07931W 6976 02994 //// +095 //// 111071 071 062 006 01 224530 1334N 07932W 6963 02999 //// +099 //// 111073 076 061 004 01 224600 1332N 07933W 6967 02980 //// +106 //// 110077 078 063 003 01 224630 1330N 07934W 6967 02965 //// +108 //// 108081 085 067 004 01 224700 1329N 07935W 6967 02942 9811 +116 +115 107087 090 067 006 03 224730 1327N 07936W 6967 02918 9795 +119 +119 107086 089 072 031 00 224800 1326N 07937W 6970 02894 9751 +132 //// 112067 083 080 022 01 224830 1324N 07938W 6967 02876 //// +126 //// 112059 063 078 010 01 224900 1323N 07939W 6967 02860 //// +135 //// 106049 055 058 002 01 224930 1321N 07940W 6961 02854 9639 +145 +138 096039 045 051 001 00 225000 1319N 07940W 6971 02832 9628 +149 +139 091027 035 040 001 00 225030 1317N 07940W 6967 02831 9631 +145 +127 101017 023 031 000 00 225100 1316N 07941W 6966 02827 9628 +145 +111 096008 014 025 000 00 225130 1314N 07941W 6972 02819 9631 +138 +117 345003 007 025 000 00 225200 1312N 07941W 6971 02822 9638 +135 +119 257018 023 026 000 03 225230 1310N 07941W 6987 02809 9643 +137 +112 257026 027 025 000 03 225300 1309N 07942W 6969 02835 9640 +144 +108 275025 027 028 000 00 225330 1308N 07943W 6969 02843 9646 +147 +108 286033 036 037 001 00 225400 1307N 07944W 6974 02844 9656 +145 +115 288039 041 052 002 00 225430 1306N 07945W 6965 02866 9671 +140 +117 293050 053 077 015 00 225500 1305N 07947W 6960 02886 9733 +133 +132 297076 086 081 044 00 225530 1304N 07948W 6979 02876 9770 +127 +127 300082 085 082 045 00 225600 1303N 07949W 6953 02939 9810 +114 +114 304085 089 080 040 00 225630 1302N 07950W 6970 02935 9824 +114 +114 305077 081 076 024 00 225700 1301N 07951W 6957 02971 9842 +115 +115 306074 078 077 017 00 225730 1300N 07952W 6980 02956 9863 +111 +111 308071 072 072 012 00 225800 1259N 07953W 6970 02985 9876 +114 +114 305070 072 069 024 03 225830 1258N 07955W 6973 02993 9895 +109 +109 304073 077 069 021 00 225900 1256N 07956W 6970 03006 9900 +102 +102 304075 077 064 013 00 225930 1255N 07957W 6962 03024 9907 +109 +109 310072 076 060 011 00 230000 1254N 07958W 6977 03016 9923 +105 +105 314070 072 059 012 00 230030 1253N 07959W 6963 03039 9919 +092 //// 313070 071 056 003 01 230100 1252N 08001W 6970 03040 //// +090 //// 314068 069 055 003 01 230130 1251N 08002W 6970 03047 //// +086 //// 315064 067 052 003 01 230200 1250N 08003W 6970 03053 //// +087 //// 316065 066 049 003 01 230230 1249N 08004W 6972 03057 9976 +101 +101 317064 065 049 008 00 230300 1247N 08006W 6972 03059 9981 +099 //// 311061 064 048 009 01 230330 1246N 08007W 6967 03070 //// +093 //// 315059 061 048 004 01 So, to summarize, 30 second winds in the eye are between 85 and 88 knots with a single 90 knot flight level 10 second peak, with surface estimates around 80 to 82 knots. This probably slightly undersampled relative to the maximal winds anywhere in the eye, so I would say 85 knots is probably reasonable right now.
  14. I think they're close to the mark here lol. The storm will of course run out of time/space to strengthen when it rams into the coast. 140 is in line with their last forecast--continuity is what they forecast--since literally the entirety of the 18z intensity guidance strongly trended, even with RI, to a Cat 3 solution, including the often bullish, and I should add often accurate, ships (which is a statistical model based on past hurricanes and storms in similar environments). As they state verbatim in their forecast, they are above the HFIP consensus right now, so they're actually *being bullish*, relative to the guidance, not conservative--and they say that. I still think Cat 4 is a reasonable assessment with the conditions in place. I also expect the guidance to return to a Cat 4 solution with the 00z runs with the addition of new aircraft data. Obviously one expects to see run to run variance in the intensity guidance, the general physics here support leaving the intensity forecast alone for now. I should note that this is not a case where you can't GET a cat 5, rather, this is just basic math. You start where the storm is now, assume it has 24-30 hours to landfall, given current intensity, you're basically getting RI to almost the coast, you conclude a low 4 or a high 3. If the storm had 12 more hours, 18 more hours of pristine conditions, sure, that would be a different conversation. I maintain my earlier 115 knot, 135mph, Cat 4, prediction, with a range of 110kt cat 3 to 125 knot Cat 4 within the plausibility realm. Remember that EVEN if the storm baffled all the scientists and went to 155mph, it would STILL be a cat 4. I really don't buy going from 100 to 160 (let's play devils advocate and assume they find 100 or even 110 mph winds which would be a giant leap from earlier), in 24 hours. Not enough time, possible ewrc, and, I'm sort of ignoring this to be blunt, but the shelf waters are a bit marginal, so it really won't be RIing at the coast, just almost to the coast and then levels off. If you were being a conservative forecaster you'd estimate a 3. Being bullish you estimate a 4, and can sort of debate the semantics of where it falls in that 4 range. Edit: one little additional factoid--the difference between Eta and Iota, is that Iota is a more progressive system. Eta had more time over the low shear, high ohc conditions than Iota has/will have/has had. That is why this won't be a 92-something storm. Eta shattered lots of records for rate of intensity increase. Since Eta, OHC has decreased a small amount, and the coastal waters as I just said, became more marginal, perhaps partially due to Eta. Still a robustly conducive environment, but when you start talking about the extreme high end for literally anything in weather (tornadoes, hurricanes, derechos), you are pushing into the margins of what's possible. Consequently you should look for the extreme limits of conditions to warrant such forecasting. Here, conditions are good, but not historically so.
  15. Updated VDM: Vortex Data Message 542 URNT12 KNHC 151811 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL312020 A. 15/17:53:40Z B. 13.16 deg N 078.88 deg W C. 700 mb 2883 m D. 975 mb E. 080 deg 7 kt F. CLOSED G. C20 H. 66 kt I. 143 deg 15 nm 17:48:30Z J. 228 deg 67 kt K. 141 deg 20 nm 17:47:00Z L. 68 kt M. 317 deg 12 nm 17:57:00Z N. 047 deg 74 kt O. 316 deg 14 nm 17:57:30Z P. 10 C / 3048 m Q. 16 C / 3047 m R. 10 C / NA S. 12345 / 07 T. 0.02 / 2.75 nm U. AF307 0331A IOTA OB 20 MAX FL WIND 74 KT 316 / 14 NM 17:57:30Z ; Interpretation: -Pressure dropped around 2mb in around an hour. -The eye is becoming more well organized, transitioning from elliptical to circular and slightly decreasing in diameter. -The eyewall is closed (which we knew from the last vdm). -The wind speeds are indeed rising, around the rate you would expect for a commensurate pressure drop and the RI scenario I mentioned earlier.