Mailman

Mesoscale Discussion 0167 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2026 Areas affected...eastern Ohio...northwestern West Virginia...western Pennsylvania...southwestern New York Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 071757Z - 072000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Intensifying thunderstorm development may become capable of producing marginally severe hail, increasing risk for damaging wind gusts and perhaps accompanied by potential for a couple of tornadoes by 3-5 PM EST. DISCUSSION...Boundary-layer layer moisture return across the upper Ohio Valley into lower Great Lakes region is ongoing, but remains somewhat modest with surface dew points increasing through the mid/upper 50s. However warming and mixing with continuing insolation is contributing to steepening low-level lapse rates and thermodynamic profiles with weak to modest CAPE increasing in excess of 500 J/kg, beneath southwesterly deep-layer mean ambient flow increasing to near 50 kt. Deepening convective development now appears underway along and discretely ahead of a convectively generated pre-cold frontal surface boundary now advancing across central into eastern Ohio. As this continues into the Allegheny Plateau through 21-22Z, developing thunderstorm activity appears likely to intensify and organize. This may include a few evolving supercell structures within and ahead of an evolving line, accompanied by a risk for severe hail and damaging wind gusts. With surface winds generally veered to a fairly prominent westerly component, the degree to which low-level hodographs will become supportive of tornadic potential remains unclear, particularly given the still sizable boundary-layer temperature/dew point spreads. However, as 850 mb winds strengthen to 50+ kt across eastern Ohio into western Pennsylvania, various model derived output suggests that profiles could become locally conducive to a supercell tornado threat by late afternoon. ..Kerr/Guyer.. 03/07/2026

Snowing here, also.

47% chance of 4" / 31% of 6", according to PBZ. So maybe a surprise for some? Didn't even realize I was under an advisory for 2-5".

Once we get to March 1st, I start rooting for highs in the 70s.

Didn't last more than 10 minutes, but it was pretty good. Got a streamer heading in this direction. See how that ends up.

Back in the game for Tuesday-Wednesday on GFS.

A little mid-week action upcoming, huh?

Probably get a 3" report from Monessen from it.

Appears we're in it for the long haul.

Still shocked I only had 5 minutes of mixed precipitation.

9" or so. Five minutes of freezing rain. Power stayed on. Storm gets a from me.

That was a quick hitter.

Coming down good again.

^ Oddly enough, I have a buddy who lives in Wilmington. He says it's currently hammering there.