Jump to content

Mailman

Members
  • Content count

    1,124
  • Joined

  • Last visited

About Mailman

  • Birthday 03/04/1982

Profile Information

  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Brownsville, PA

Recent Profile Visitors

1,120 profile views
  1. Mesoscale Discussion 0785 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Sat May 25 2019 Areas affected...western NY...western PA...far eastern OH...northern WV and western MD Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 251653Z - 251900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity over the next couple of hours. Strong to locally damaging wind gusts are possible with the strongest storms, though hail is also possible. A watch may be needed in the next few hours across this region. DISCUSSION...Widely scattered thunderstorms were developing early this afternoon on the nose of eastward surging boundary layer moisture from northwest PA/eastern OH into WV. A warm front was lifting northeast across NY/PA/VA just ahead of this convection. Dewpoints in the mid 60s to near 70 F will spread eastward with time today and convection should increase in coverage and intensity as continued strong heating and destabilization occurs in strong deep layer west/southwesterly flow. Forecast RAP soundings indicated steepening low level lapse rates, with 30-40 kt southwest winds around 760-700 mb at the top of the mixed boundary layer, suggesting strong to locally damaging wind gusts will be possible. While midlevel lapse rates are unimpressive, around 6.5-7 C/km at best, vertical shear will support rotating updrafts and a few supercell structures are possible. This will bring an attendant risk for severe hail with the strongest storms. While forecast LCLs are relatively high at around 3kft, any storm that interacts with the warm front or through favorable cell/outflow interactions, could produce a tornado or two given modestly favorable low level hodographs and effective SRH around 150-200 m2/s2. Convective trends will continue to be monitored and a watch may be needed in the next few hours. ..Leitman/Hart.. 05/25/2019
  2. Watch up until midnight.
  3. Enhanced risk tomorrow. We shall see.
  4. Mesoscale Discussion 0350 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019 Areas affected...Eastern ohio...Western Pennsylvania...and far southwest New York Concerning...Severe potential...Watch needed soon Valid 142157Z - 142300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...A downstream tornado watch will be needed soon across western Pennsylvania and far southwest New York. DISCUSSION...A line of storms have developed along a pre-frontal trough across Ohio ahead of a 990mb surface low analyzed between Columbus and Akron. The strongest storms may be producing damaging winds at this time. A 20Z PIT sounding is a good proximity sounding for the environment ahead of these storms. Buoyancy is quite weak with MLCAPE only around 200 J/kg substituting current surface observations into the 20Z sounding. Clearing ahead of these storms may allow temperatures to warm slightly during the next hour, but as the boundary layer deepens, surface dewpoints may fall a few degrees due to mixing which would keep buoyancy weak into the evening. However, despite this meager instability, the wind profile remains very supportive of all severe weather hazards with effective shear around 70 knots and 0 to 1 km SRH over 500 m2/s2. This threat will likely be maximized near the warm front in northern Pennsylvania and southern New York where backed surface flow, and higher dewpoints are expected to remain. South of the Pennsylvania border, dewpoints have mixed into the mid 50s which has limited instability to less than 100 J/kg which has greatly reduced the severe threat. ..Bentley/Guyer.. 04/14/2019
  5. Looks like we might have a nice line of storms roll thru here at some point tomorrow evening. Slight risk. We shall see.
  6. Looks like some good returns in the WV panhandle.
  7. TWC has someone in Pittsburgh, it seems.
  8. Still expecting 4-6" here tomorrow.
  9. Euro went a little southeast, as well, with the heaviest snow for Sunday.
×