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Mailman

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About Mailman

  • Birthday 03/04/1982

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  1. I was already glued to the models for this to begin with. Now I guess I have to keep an eye on the local impacts, as well. Nice little 2.5-day rain event on the 12z GFS.
  2. Canadian makes landfall in NC. Mid-950s or so.
  3. There was a GFS ensemble member at 18z yesterday that put a 974mb low right over Allegheny County. I just laughed and went on my way.
  4. Brett just picked up Mike on the side of the road.
  5. BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 120 PM EDT TUE AUG 22 2017 The National Weather Service in Pittsburgh has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northwestern Washington County in southwestern Pennsylvania... Central Allegheny County in southwestern Pennsylvania... * Until 200 PM EDT. * At 119 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Avella, moving east at 40 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar. IMPACT...Damage to trees and power lines. * Locations impacted include... Pittsburgh... Penn Hills... Mount Lebanon... Bethel Park... Ross Township... McMurray... McKeesport... Canonsburg... Avella... Shaler Township... West Mifflin... North Side Pittsburgh... This includes the following highways... Interstate 79 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 22 and 35. Interstate 279 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 1 and 7. Interstate 376 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 57 and 77. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. Please report severe weather by calling 412-262-1988, posting to the NWS Pittsburgh Facebook page, or using Twitter @NWSPITTSBURGH.
  6. [img Mesoscale Discussion 1547 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017 Areas affected...Western PA...Southeast OH...Western WV...Northern KY... Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 221554Z - 221700Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm watch will likely be issued by 17z across portions of the Ohio Valley. DISCUSSION...Pre-frontal boundary-layer cumulus field is expanding/deepening across the OH Valley as surface temperatures warm into the lower 80s. While mid-level lapse rates are poor due to high PW air mass, surface-3km lapse rates have steepened enough for surface parcels to reach their LFC. Lightning is beginning to increase with maturing convection from the northwest portions of PA, southwest along the OH River into southern IN. This activity should gradually increase in areal coverage within a sheared environment favorable for organized line segments and clusters. A considerable amount of convection is expected along this corridor within a few hours and locally damaging winds can be expected with these storms. Severe thunderstorm watch is warranted for this evolving threat. ..Darrow/Grams.. 08/22/2017
  7. Mesoscale Discussion 1443 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Fri Aug 04 2017 Areas affected...Lower Great Lakes/Allegheny Plateau region Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 439... Valid 041946Z - 042145Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 439 continues. SUMMARY...Small to, perhaps, marginally severe hail and localized/spotty damaging wind gusts will remain possible near thunderstorm activity overspreading the region through early evening. DISCUSSION...Potential for substantive further organization of ongoing pre-cold frontal convective development into the 21-23Z time frame is appearing increasing unlikely, as objective analysis indicates that deep layer vertical shear remains weak across much of the warm sector south and east of Lakes Erie and Ontario. However, mean lower/mid tropospheric wind fields are strengthening to 30-40 kt across western Pennsylvania and much of New York state. And this could continue to augment severe weather potential with thunderstorm activity developing northeastward/eastward across the region through the remainder of the afternoon, primarily associated with localized enhanced downward transfer of momentum within areas of heavier precipitation loading. ..Kerr.. 08/04/2017
  8. WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 439 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 125 PM EDT FRI AUG 4 2017 MDC023-OHC013-019-029-031-059-067-081-111-119-121-157-PAC003-005- 007-019-031-051-053-059-063-065-073-085-121-125-129-WVC009-029- 049-051-061-069-077-103-050100- /O.NEW.KPBZ.SV.A.0439.170804T1725Z-170805T0100Z/ THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN MARYLAND THIS WATCH INCLUDES 1 COUNTY IN WESTERN MARYLAND GARRETT IN OHIO THIS WATCH INCLUDES 11 COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL OHIO BELMONT CARROLL COLUMBIANA COSHOCTON GUERNSEY HARRISON JEFFERSON MONROE MUSKINGUM NOBLE TUSCARAWAS IN PENNSYLVANIA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 15 COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA FOREST MERCER VENANGO IN SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA ALLEGHENY FAYETTE GREENE WASHINGTON WESTMORELAND IN WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA ARMSTRONG BUTLER CLARION INDIANA JEFFERSON IN WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA BEAVER LAWRENCE IN WEST VIRGINIA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 8 COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA PRESTON IN NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA MARION MONONGALIA WETZEL IN NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA BROOKE HANCOCK MARSHALL OHIO THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF ALIQUIPPA, AMBRIDGE, BEAVER FALLS, BROOKVILLE, BUTLER, CADIZ, CALDWELL, CAMBRIDGE, CANONSBURG, CARROLLTON, CLARION, COLUMBIANA, CONNELLSVILLE, COSHOCTON, DOVER, EAST LIVERPOOL, ELLWOOD CITY, FAIRMONT, FOLLANSBEE, FORD CITY, FRANKLIN, GRANTSVILLE, GREENSBURG, GROVE CITY, HERMITAGE, INDIANA, KINGWOOD, KITTANNING, LATROBE, MARTINS FERRY, MASONTOWN, MONACA, MORGANTOWN, MOUNDSVILLE, MOUNTAIN LAKE PARK, MURRYSVILLE, NEW CASTLE, NEW KENSINGTON, NEW MARTINSVILLE, NEW PHILADELPHIA, OAKLAND MD, OIL CITY, PITTSBURGH METRO AREA, PUNXSUTAWNEY, SALEM, SHARON, ST. CLAIRSVILLE, STEUBENVILLE, TERRA ALTA, TIONESTA, UNIONTOWN, WASHINGTON, WAYNESBURG, WEIRTON, WELLSBURG, WHEELING, WOODSFIELD, AND ZANESVILLE. $$
  9. Mesoscale Discussion 1442 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1038 AM CDT Fri Aug 04 2017 Areas affected...Much of the upper Ohio Valley Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 041538Z - 041745Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Severe hail/wind risk with increasing thunderstorm development may remain somewhat localized and/or sparse in coverage through early to mid afternoon. However, potential does exist for a slow increase in coverage and organization which could be accompanied by a more substantive risk for damaging wind gusts later this afternoon. Trends will continue to be monitored for the possibility of a watch. DISCUSSION...Weak to moderate pre-cold frontal destabilization is now underway across much of the upper Ohio Valley, primarily as insolation contributes to warming of a seasonably moist boundary layer. Latest objective analysis suggests that inhibition is already becoming increasingly negligible, particularly within a corridor ahead of the front, from parts of north central Kentucky through the Lake Erie area. Aided by large-scale ascent ahead of a significant short wave trough now pivoting eastward toward the lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley region, a general increase in thunderstorm activity appears likely through 17-20Z. Further daytime heating may yield CAPE as high as 1500-2000 J/kg, supportive of vigorous updrafts. However, warm sector southwesterly deep layer mean flow, even with some strengthening, appears likely to remain on the order of 30-35 kt. And models indicate that the mid-level cold core of the approaching system will lag to the west. Still, weak cooling aloft may be enough to support some risk for marginally severe hail in initial stronger pulsing activity. Vertical shear and instability may become marginally sufficient to support a gradual increase in convective organization, which may eventually be accompanied by an increasing risk for potentially damaging wind gusts. This probably will take some time through, with any severe hail/wind risk expected to initially remain fairly sparse in coverage. ..Kerr/Goss.. 08/04/2017
  10. Mesoscale Discussion 1364 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017 Areas affected...Eastern/southern OH...western/central PA...northern WV Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 201950Z - 202215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated damaging-wind potential could accompany thunderstorms moving across portions of the middle and upper Ohio Valley region to the central Appalachians and vicinity into the early evening hours. Watch issuance is presently unlikely. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development continues along a diffuse cold front from northwest PA through north-central OH. Additional storm development may also focus along the northern and eastern periphery of a residual MCV presently moving across southwest OH. MCV-related ascent is being augmented by differential-heating-induced baroclinic circulations along fringes of multi-layered cloud decks surrounding the MCV. The air mass south of the front and ahead of the MCV has become moderately unstable, owing to surface temperatures having warmed through the 80s amid dewpoints in the upper 60s to around 70F. The most intense storms may produce locally damaging wind gusts -- aided by slightly enhanced deep shear (around 20-40 kt of effective shear). However, stronger deep shear resides north of this region, which should limit overall convective organization. Moreover, poor mid-level lapse rates, veered low-level flow ahead of the front limiting frontal convergence, and modest background low-level flow strength should prevent a more substantial severe risk from occurring. ..Cohen/Coniglio/Hart.. 07/20/2017
  11. Mesoscale Discussion 1276 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2017 Areas affected...Southeast OH...Southwest PA...and Northern WV Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 101908Z - 102115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Scattered strong and occasionally severe storms will affect parts of southeast OH, southwest PA, and northern WV this afternoon. This area will be monitored for a possible watch if trends warrant. DISCUSSION...A long-lived MCV (remnant from overnight convection) is moving eastward across western OH. The air mass ahead of this feature is only slowly destabilizing due to extensive cloud cover and scattered precipitation. However, partly cloudy skies in the southeast flank of the MCV over southeast OH are helping temperatures to warm through the 70s with near 70F dewpoints. While low-level lapse rates are somewhat limited today, low-level wind fields are relatively strong as depicted by ILN VWP data. Continued heating will likely lead to scattered thunderstorm development, with sufficient vertical shear for a few organized/bowing convective segments. Sufficient CAPE may also promote a risk of hail in the strongest cells. Convective trends will be monitored in this region for the possibility of a watch if bowing structures becomes evident/more likely. ..Hart/Darrow.. 07/10/2017
  12. WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 402 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 127 PM EDT FRI JUL 7 2017 OHC013-019-031-059-067-081-111-119-121-157-PAC051-059-125-WVC009- 049-051-061-069-077-103-080100- /O.NEW.KPBZ.SV.A.0402.170707T1727Z-170708T0100Z/ THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 402 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN OHIO THIS WATCH INCLUDES 10 COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL OHIO BELMONT CARROLL COSHOCTON GUERNSEY HARRISON JEFFERSON MONROE MUSKINGUM NOBLE TUSCARAWAS IN PENNSYLVANIA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 3 COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA FAYETTE GREENE WASHINGTON IN WEST VIRGINIA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 7 COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA PRESTON IN NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA MARION MONONGALIA WETZEL IN NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA BROOKE MARSHALL OHIO THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF CADIZ, CALDWELL, CAMBRIDGE, CANONSBURG, CARROLLTON, CONNELLSVILLE, COSHOCTON, DOVER, FAIRMONT, FOLLANSBEE, KINGWOOD, MARTINS FERRY, MASONTOWN, MORGANTOWN, MOUNDSVILLE, NEW MARTINSVILLE, NEW PHILADELPHIA, ST. CLAIRSVILLE, STEUBENVILLE, TERRA ALTA, UNIONTOWN, WASHINGTON, WAYNESBURG, WELLSBURG, WHEELING, WOODSFIELD, AND ZANESVILLE.
  13. A trained spotter claimed there was a rope tornado on the ground south of Uniontown. I still haven't come across any videos/pictures. EF1 tornado was confirmed in Washington County.