EstorilM

Does anyone have a target ETA for the snow squalls tomorrow in northern VA / Loudoun Co? LWX has it narrowed down to a 5hr window (lol) so that doesn’t really help - I think the short range models have it pretty much nailed down, but I can’t find the post now.

1.39" a bit south of Chantilly so far, had a heavy band about 45 min ago but it looks like radar is clearing out a bit. Bracing ourselves for the wind next.

Cooler than I thought this evening - my two PWS showing 27.1 in Catharpin (prince william co.) and 25.7 in Middleburg (Loudoun). Lows were forecast to be 28.

Hmmm an inch of sleet for PW County/SW Loudoun. Not sure I buy that, but I suppose it’s more entertaining than rain.

Trend has been warmer, faster, lower QPF, and NW - granted some of those are directly related, but still kinda a sucker punch for most of us.

Most around here and WV haven’t had good snow since Covid, I can’t comprehend how any are still in business - though I guess Timberline was sold and re-structured, but wow.. bad timing for the new guys. I miss going out there.

Can’t see where you are on my phone, but 850s look good for most of the region. Surface temps are definitely struggling now though, with just about the worst timing possible (that’s a big part of what killed us, this was initially going to be an all-overnight Sat storm.) But yeah, if the rates get up there something should stick… LWX seems to think most of this will transition to rain, which I don’t really agree with given most of the 850s in the area. It’s starting to sound like one of those messes that just goes back and forth.

Sterling WFO seems to have thrown in the towel. Given that it’s Thursday, I don’t think you can say they “got it wrong” - but certainly a very different forecast than a few days ago. “…. P-type is likely to start as light snow given temp profiles mostly below freezing, especially west of I- 95. However, most models have trended warmer in the low-levels east of the Blue Ridge, especially with the 850mb being at or above freezing east of US-15. As a result, a wintry mix is likely to start, then quickly transition to a cold rain. The chance for any accumulating snow just along/east of I-95 looks very low at this time.”

Wasn’t the euro saying “warmer, faster, and NW” like 4-5 days ago, when we kept calling it an outlier?

Wow this seemed like a lock for Northern VA, then again people always say you never want to be in the bullseye ~5 days out - all it can do is “trend” away from you lol.

Same here in Catharpin, you’re probably a few miles away from me lol.

1.7” Saturday and 1.11” so far since midnight - should easily break 3” which was a good bit above most models for Northern Virginia. Wind is a different story, we were under a wind advisory and models had ~35-40 mph gusts. Peak gust yesterday was 20.6 mph.

Temps dropped almost 10 degrees since 7AM (down to about 34) - aaaaand simultaneously, the last of the precip shield looks to have cleared my area. So yeah, still haven't seen that snow flake yet for this season yet.

It wasn't that funny It's kinda entertaining when the forecasters at NWS occasionally remind us that they aren't robots lol.

I almost fell asleep reading this thread a day or so ago... I suppose 7 days out isn't really "extreme" or anything, but I definitely don't trust it.