Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    18,639
    Total Members
    25,819
    Most Online
    Donut Hole
    Newest Member
    Donut Hole
    Joined

3/16/26 Severe Weather Event Thread (Moderate Risk) | Latest: 15% TOR, 60% WIND, 5% HAIL


Kmlwx
 Share

Recommended Posts

1 minute ago, H2O said:

 

I'm confused.  So which is it?  A one off HRRR run that shows nothing but a little line later today or this?

This is shown on it but weakens it so will have to see if it holds together or not. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, mappy said:

Hard to say about later but it was always supposed to be multiple rounds with the worst being later tonight. 

I know but how often does that verify?  Not saying we won't get a line of breezy showers with the trough swinging through or that isolated spots see bows, but I'd focus on what's happening now since the environment is the most primed vice later when there's potentially messy showers/stable pools/post-storm subsidence scattered everyone.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Pityflakes said:

I know but how often does that verify?  Not saying we won't get a line of breezy showers with the trough swinging through or that isolated spots see bows, but I'd focus on what's happening now since the environment is the most primed vice later when there's potentially messy showers/stable pools/post-storm subsidence scattered everyone.  

I guess you just wait and see what happens. I’m not gonna be an annoying Debbie downer about it. Weather will do what it will do. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

LWX text on the tornado warning:

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Eastern Rappahannock County in northwestern Virginia...
  Northwestern Fauquier County in northern Virginia...
  Northwestern Culpeper County in northern Virginia...

* Until 1100 AM EDT.

* At 1033 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a
  tornado was located 7 miles east of Sperryville, or 12 miles
  northwest of Culpeper, moving northeast at 55 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, 87storms said:

I thought the main show was later this afternoon and now it’s noon? Lol

If you read the discos any early stuff will kill the chances for later. This line moves thru around noon then it wipe out the energy. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think you always have to be careful with the multiple round scenario and more often than not, lean towards the earlier round being more of the show. Especially around these parts, forecast models can really struggle in that regard and its even more of a case when you're dealing with a largely uncapped warm sector. Typically, if you're looking for multiple rounds you want to see a moderate or extremely unstable airmass in place. 

But this is still looking extremely interesting for much of Virginia into Maryland. Given how warm the llvl airmass is, based on satellite showing a large pocket of cloud breaks and approaching high noon, it won't take much to get temperatures to jump another 5-8F. Also noting the sfc winds are more backed in this area and may continued to back even more. You're storm inflow is also pulling in from higher theta-e which resides just off the coast. Going to have some differential boundaries in play too.

  • Like 1
  • 100% 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, 87storms said:

I thought the main show was later this afternoon and now it’s noon? Lol

This has been modeled for days as a multiple piece event. One early, one closer to the evening. How it plays out is still TBD despite what the PA crew is posting.

  • Like 1
  • clap 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, weatherwiz said:

I think you always have to be careful with the multiple round scenario and more often than not, lean towards the earlier round being more of the show. Especially around these parts, forecast models can really struggle in that regard and its even more of a case when you're dealing with a largely uncapped warm sector. Typically, if you're looking for multiple rounds you want to see a moderate or extremely unstable airmass in place. 

But this is still looking extremely interesting for much of Virginia into Maryland. Given how warm the llvl airmass is, based on satellite showing a large pocket of cloud breaks and approaching high noon, it won't take much to get temperatures to jump another 5-8F. Also noting the sfc winds are more backed in this area and may continued to back even more. You're storm inflow is also pulling in from higher theta-e which resides just off the coast. Going to have some differential boundaries in play too.

Hey, I’m at uva and planning to chase. What would the best location to target be? I’m thinking near Amelia court house but curious to know your thoughts 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Hey, I’m at uva and planning to chase. What would the best location to target be? I’m thinking near Amelia court house but curious to know your thoughts 

I am not familiar with the geography down there so I don't have much insight to provide. But does your school have good views in all directions? You really might not be in a bad spot. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...