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About jwilson

  • Birthday 01/31/1986

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  • Location:
    South Hills, PA

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  1. Around here there wasn't much action of which to speak. Seems we got stuck in the outflow dominant/downdraft portion of the squall line. There was a funnel cloud spotted near Conneaut Lake. Not sure if anything ever touched the ground, but that same storm has held tornado-warned status for a while now.
  2. Took quite a while before the roads caved. Light snow in general. Definitely been in a subsidence zone most of the day. Doubt we verify on the high end.
  3. I think the question a lot of folks have is whether we have entered a new normal with snow in these areas, or if it's more of a short-term decadal trend.
  4. Even if this wave stood on its own, it would have had way more potential. The fast flow would have prevented HECS labels, but all these little pieces of energy had to fight with each other in the last few days. The coastal helped robbed this main storm of some energy and pushed it south. We were looking at a 12" event a couple days ago, now we're down to 2-4" if we're lucky. In March, that just doesn't cut it. Hopefully coastal enhancement means it overperforms for you folks, though.
  5. I see we were downgraded to an Advisory. lol
  6. jwilson

    Elliot Abrams to Retire

    Voice of my childhood there. Enjoy retirement! He's probably half the reason I got into weather as a kid.
  7. jwilson

    March 3-4, 2019 Snow/Rain Event

    Hope you fine Philly folks get nailed on this one, especially given this slummy winter. I'll be watching from the bushes.
  8. Pittsburgh NWS twitter explains their reasoning behind the warning: (https://twitter.com/NWSPittsburgh/status/1101932802080157696)
  9. Yeah, I get why they were complaining (I think they were at historic levels of futility for snow), but everyone knew they'd play catch-up before long. Some people just need perspective, really. There's quite a few in the MA forum especially that would go insane living here. I can't imagine some of those guys making it 10 years without a double-digit event.
  10. I've seen this on the coast and they tend to be modeled somewhat by the meso models. I don't see a single model (mesos included) getting anywhere near 6" for Pittsburgh metro unless I'm missing something. The closest is the Euro with 4" (and it maybe paints a small strip of 6" in eastern Washington county). Warning (in this case) means 6" in 12 hours is imminent. I don't know that that's the wording I would use.
  11. That warning is bizarre given it requires 6" in 12 hours or 8" in 24 hours. I don't expect to hit either of those marks. A watch might have made sense, then downgraded to WWA when it became clear we weren't hitting warning criteria.
  12. This has been one of the worst winters for modeling, I believe, at least in the long-term. It probably isn't as bad as I think, but I would like to see verification scores relative to other years. Constant short-term adjustments, disagreements, etc. I do agree the Euro has not been strong in a year when verification scores say the GFS has been abysmal. Twice now it has caved to the GFS, though. Seems the models couldn't handle the pattern overall of this winter. I'm sure this will make for an interesting case study for those in the field. It was so bad the FV3 has been put back to sleep. The Sunday storm is losing much of its impact over the entire northeast. Given how the January system went, it wouldn't surprise me if the Sunday storm went even further southeast or drier than is being modeled. Well, I guess we learn to not get suckered in when there are all these little balls of energy trying to vie for the limited amount in the atmosphere. The paradigm of "choosing the model that looks worse for us" certainly hasn't been shifted by this season.
  13. Yeah I think you're right. Mistake on my part, thinking those maps only showed a single event synopsis. Storm is definitely less amped, though. Truthfully, this was never going to be a "big one" because of the progressive flow. If there weren't so many waves scrambling close together, I do think this weekend could have been a major event (maybe not for us - depends on other factors - but for someone). I do agree, beggars can't be choosers and all, but we've still managed a fair amount of snow this year. For me, the little to modest events have simply lost their appeal. Is 2010 still the last double-digit snowfall for Pittsburgh metro?
  14. Euro still considerably less impressive than it was (cutting totals in half or more). Honestly, at this time I'm over the nuisance snows. I'm big game hunting. If we can't get a big one, then I don't really care if the GFS verifies and we get flurries.
  15. As predicted, the GFS has gone in a poor direction based on its own interpretations. We still have the Euro on our side, but right now it is alone in terms of a stronger and further NW solution, by far. The NAM is halfway in-between the two and considerably faster than the GFS. I tend to side with the NAM here, for now. It's a split and it nailed the far faster movement with the shortwave we had this morning. Obviously, lots of ways this can still swing. Range of possibilities from 1" to 12" .. how's that for a forecast?