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About jwilson

  • Birthday 01/31/1986

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  • Location:
    South Hills, PA

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  1. At this time of year, if anything over a trace would be historic, a 9" snowfall would be biblical, and I'd consider Armageddon right around the corner.
  2. We've had a trace of snow in May twice since 2000 ('01-'02 & '15-'16).. let's go for a third.
  3. If it wasn't for today, we would have had a higher max temp in January (71) this year than in April (70 was previous max). Oof.
  4. Well that was an intense line, definitely one of the most dynamic cells I've witnessed since living here. Tornado warning popped on the TV, but it wasn't really for us. Hope you're all good up in New Kensington. Twitter report said there was a tornado near Markle. I was watching power flashes in the distance from my viewpoint. Actually a lot of other strange lighting colors during the storm, as well.
  5. We got a very brief and minor bout of hail yesterday with that "supercell," but it seemed the actual hail core went south of us, closer to Canonsburg. Our hail was minuscule in comparison (pea size at the most).
  6. When I get older, I'm retiring to Mammoth Lakes or Lake Tahoe. 200" of snow per year. Ideally I'll have a place I can ski/snowboard right out to the slopes.
  7. For 2009, even I got screwed a tad on that one being in the Philly suburbs. Philly measured 23" and I got 12" - that entire winter was full of tight gradient snow storms.
  8. I think my 3.2" is a final. We've been getting showery snows for a while now but nothing is adding up. I measured 1.7" at 5:30 AM and 2.8" at 7:30 AM. Center cut Allegheny got stuck under subsidence/divergence earlier and that limited our totals. Likewise, a lot of our snow was very fine flakes. I think one of the things the models didn't handle well was snow growth. Perhaps that was due to wind shear in the upper levels? I'm not well versed in the DGZ. This one hit the target; not an overperformer nor did it disappoint, necessarily. If we had some blocking it could have been amazing. To get anything in this winter is luck, though. A shame we don't see these inland low tracks more often. Still waiting for that widespread overrunning event that gets everyone.
  9. Changeover occurred between 330 and 4 AM. Have what looks to be an inch or so thus far, boundary might be setting up east, but the snow side of this system looks more robust (for now) than expected. We'll see when bombogensis occurs how frontogenic forcing interplays with the current shield.
  10. SREF plumes are up to a mean of over 4" now, compared to 2.5" earlier. Meanwhile, the HRDPS is a pretty good hit for us (6-10"), though the model name always makes me think it's derpy. Not sure it's all that valuable, just another possible solution.
  11. The dynamics involved mean this storm has high bust potential either direction. The heaviest band has swung from the west back to the east of us today.
  12. GEFS mean at 12Z was 5" for PIT. That's robust. Hard to trust it, though. We should have some white rain, but I don't know for how long. SREF mean is 2.5". High-res NAM has changeover around 2-3 AM. GFS is slower, closer to 6-7 AM. Canadian agrees. Bunch of mesoscale models are 4-5 AM, including SREFS, HRRR, ARW. RGEM has the bulk of snow over by 8 AM. In other words, there's a spread, but I would be more inclined to trust the faster solutions. Chances favor the snow rates are at or past peak at 7 AM. Messy commute.
  13. Based on the 12Z suite, I'd say the odds *look* decent for at least a 2" event in the metro area, which would probably be the biggest storm for most - if not all - of us. I'm only at ~6" on the season versus the NWS measurement. For right now, the NWS has PIT at a 74% chance of 2" or more. 44% chance at 4" or more. 1% chance at >12" (lol). Given the intense convection and fast storm movement we'll see, there's also a high bust potential for those areas that fall outside of the best convective bands (or get stuck under divergence). It will likely come down to a nowcast event. Reminds me of tracking Miller B's off the coast. A lot of times you'd have wildly different snow totals just a few miles apart because of the convergence/divergence and banding.