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About jwilson

  • Birthday 01/31/1986

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  • Location:
    South Hills, PA

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  1. Here comes the Christmas torch! Hopefully it evacuates by New Year's so we can get back to this lovely cold and dry pattern.
  2. That northern stream confluence seems to keep getting stronger as modeled. Getting to the point where we have to cling to a phase solution, and those are always low-probability events. I'll keep watching, because there's always the chance with this type of interaction we could have a late-game hail mary of sorts. At least this looks to be a winter of chances. Can't ask for more than that.
  3. I should probably stop watching this so often - though I love the chase and all - but the one good thing we had on our side just went way south (18Z FV3). There's a piece over the midwest which is acting as kicker along with a diving shortwave in the Ontario/NE area that acts as a suppressant. If that New England s/w can move faster (out of the way) or the piece in the midwest phases with the energy over the south and pulls it back, as I would understand it, those are the two ways we can get an event more north. The latter option could result in a rather large system, perhaps historical proportions, while the former is something still decent but less notable. Of course, it remains to be seen how far north and west we can get with the primary system.
  4. Yeah, unfortunately, the FV3 (and to a lesser extent the GFS) is the only thing we have on our side right now. It has been fairly consistent while also shifting north noticeably over the last few runs. At least enough to get Allegheny County into the mix (certainly not directly, but snow instead of dry). Meanwhile, the Euro and Ukie are squash city with the high sitting over State College.
  5. I know it's still relatively early, but the models have largely been consistent with a southern solution for a few days now. Looks like the battle line is getting drawn across the Mason-Dixon in terms of northern progression of the snow. I find it incredibly strange to get such strong confluence this early in December, but at least for right now, that's what we're looking at. Going back in time, Richmond's biggest December snowfall is 17.2", and that occurred in 1908. They've had four other events over ten inches (1917, 1935, 1958, and 1966). The storms in 1908, 1935, and 1966 were late December. The 10.4" in 1917 fell between the 12th and 14th. A storm approaching and exceeding 2' of snow between December 8th-10th would essentially be unprecedented. However, given the passage of time, perhaps they are due. Now, a north trend or wobble is somewhat predictable, even expected, with the models, especially later in the game. As we move forward this week, the question will be whether we can get enough northward movement prior to the onset to sneak into the crosshairs. Places like D.C. might be in better position to benefit. I am worried we're too far north to be in the game. The GEFS (ensembles) haven't shifted noticeably north over the last few days. They've kept the heaviest axis of snow in Eastern WVA/Western VA. The Euro ensembles appear to be in similar agreement. Looking at individual members, none of them get Pittsburgh appreciably in the game. There are a couple close calls, but the best ones are all fringe jobs, at most. There is still time for change. I am concerned, though, because outside of that early FV3 run, there haven't been any northern solutions (maybe the CMC is an exception; I'm ignoring it until it has support). They went further south for a time, but again, no intimation that the confluence will weaken enough to target PA. There are quite a few interactions at play. Keep a look out, but for now, I wouldn't really expect anything (big surprise, right?).
  6. A blizzard for Atlanta in early December. Could you imagine that?
  7. Right in the sweet spot, then! (Kidding, of course) Beautiful banana high, juicy southern steam. Signal remains. Euro and GFS not quite on board yet, suppressed solutions, but if there's such a thing as weather porn, that FV3 run is it. I'm sure we'll see plenty of spread upcoming. Indeed, even a couple days later, the PV flow looks improved, pinching off instead of getting trapped over AK. It may not dump cold over us, and I'm sure there will some sort of warmth and relaxation of the pattern, but for now it appears we may not get locked into anything over a longer term. Lots of moving pieces to keep the weather shuffling. I was worried we'd be starting at 70 on Christmas, which I guess is never out of the question. At least through the 10th or so we should have a ride of some kind.
  8. I made the mistake of looking at some long-term forecasts. Does not look great right now. I'm hoping - as it tends to do with the cold snaps - that the ensembles' warmth is overdone. GFS and Euro both. That dreaded warm December I fear appears like it may be a reality, fueled by a raging +EPO. Maybe it's a transient shift instead of a long-term pattern setting up, but we've seen single, strong indices dictate winter before. If you want to get really crazy, there's a storm signal around Christmas that might be interesting. Yes, that is what I choose to believe.
  9. Here's a shot from the snow the other day: Everything had a nice coat on it. Really set the mood for the season. Made me wish we got snow more often in November and around Christmas.
  10. jwilson


    Snow and more
  11. jwilson

    1st Winter Event of 2018-19 Fall/Winter Season

    Likewise. Pittsburgh is basically Cape May most of the time, wherein the warm air coddles up on the windward side of the Appalachians, creating a warm pocket. Southerly intrusion is difficult to stop. I've missed living on the coastal plain, of all places, for a while.
  12. We have maybe half an inch of snow at this point? I have to find some way to measure at this place for bigger events. At least we got some of the white stuff.
  13. Hey, I think we could set a new record for digital snow this season, especially with a start like this. All rain here, hovering just over freezing at the surface. Like others, there was a slight glaze this morning, not much else to report.
  14. Even if that holds true, I think ratios would be quite low (probably 6:1 or 8:1) give the conditions. Still, a 3-6 event would be icing on November 15th.
  15. I won't hold out much hope here for significant snow in mid-November. The ice possibility is a concern. If the NAO tanks like it appears is possible, maybe we have the necessary blocking to get a decent snowfall chance. I can't remember the last time we've had a truly sustained -NAO, however.