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About jwilson

  • Birthday 01/31/1986

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    South Hills, PA

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  1. I'd be happy with an inch, but it looks to dry out as the last one did. I'll expect nothing. Last 30 years in November: 13.9" most (1995-96) Trace least (9 different years) 2.3" average In addition to those nine "trace" years, we can add four more years of less than an inch received. To me that is more or less equivalent to nothing. 13/30 or 43% of the time. Those aren't great odds of getting relevant accumulating snow in November. Add in four more years with between 1" and 2" and that's over 50% of the time we can't even muster 2" in November, total. Take out those two unusual high-end amounts ('95 and '13) and the average drops to 1.6" instead.
  2. High-res NAM goes to all snow at 3 PM tomorrow in these parts. GFS is a bit slower and keeps the precip around for longer, through 8 PM or so. Neither gives us much at all and leaves a nice little hole over Pittsburgh. Maybe we can grab a sloppy inch for a taste. As usual the ridges and lake counties do better and might get a couple.
  3. FIrst measurable snowfall last year was November 15/16. I think it is possible we can beat that date this year. Bigger question may be whether we can sustain a favorable pattern this winter as compared to last.
  4. Well, at this time of year, probably not much (super low ratios). 5-10" maybe? If we can get this into some cold in January, perhaps a nice foot or two.
  5. THE WARM TONGUE DOES NOT ABATE! Seriously though, we had a fairly prolonged period of -NAO through this year (spring/summer). Hopefully that holds into the winter. Seems like it has been a while since we've seen the same during the cold seasons. It would really help our chances.
  6. I was still living in Philly at the time, so not sure if that's the information you're after, but we managed a little over 12" (most all of it was on the 6th, but a little fell before midnight). Our bigger storm was a few days later on the 9th and 10th. There we pulled >23" and some of the heaviest snow I've ever seen in person, with visibility down to about 200 feet.
  7. Remember when September used to be a cool month? I don't know if data confirms this, but it seems like we're losing four seasons and basically contracting down to two (6 months of summer and 6 months of winter). Looks like the heat will continue into October again.
  8. I was planning on hitting the links Friday or Saturday.. maybe not such a good idea now? I have played in the heat before, it's just miserable. And no alcohol, of course.
  9. Here's a couple images from last night that I captured on that final severe storm of the evening. This was on the very southern edge of the cell. First is the possible wall cloud. This isn't the best it looked, but it's the only real view on tape I managed to grab of it (this is actually a still from a video). It looked a bit more defined as it approached. There was a clear inflow band, as well (extending off to the right of this image). Unfortunately, I didn't end up attempting to get any more pictures or videos of it for some dumb reason. Here is a quick GIF of some lightning I captured. It got pretty intense. Evidently there was hail with this storm further to the north, but the core of the storm missed me. (If image isn't working, click here.)
  10. Just caught the southern tip of that severe storm. No hail, impressive light show, looked like a wall cloud as it moved in (hard to make out at night for certain but thanks light pollution). Some nice video, as well, but my phone is almost dead so I'll see what's worth revisiting tomorrow.
  11. If today busts for the southern regions, the enhanced risk area shifts south for tomorrow, but it might end up putting the city locales on the northern fringe instead of the southern. Could still be a miss. There will be a final chance region-wide on Thursday. The probabilities look lower in severe terms, however, at least for now.
  12. Couple more chances for severe upcoming, but thus far this year there hasn't been much locally. I think June is our peak season, though.
  13. Around here there wasn't much action of which to speak. Seems we got stuck in the outflow dominant/downdraft portion of the squall line. There was a funnel cloud spotted near Conneaut Lake. Not sure if anything ever touched the ground, but that same storm has held tornado-warned status for a while now.
  14. Took quite a while before the roads caved. Light snow in general. Definitely been in a subsidence zone most of the day. Doubt we verify on the high end.
  15. I think the question a lot of folks have is whether we have entered a new normal with snow in these areas, or if it's more of a short-term decadal trend.