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January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage Thread 2

mappy

By mappy,
in Mid Atlantic

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MillvilleWx
MillvilleWx

For clarity sake Data ingest is ONGOING and will be available for the 00z runs TONIGHT (00z 1/22) There has been NO RECON DATA FOR TODAY (1/21).    Thanks

Diesel BrokeHer
Diesel BrokeHer

Calls have been coming in for a few days from electric utilities to top off massive diesel tanks. Large facilities in the VA/MD/DC area are preparing for "curtailment" (when they get their gas supply

psuhoffman
psuhoffman

The 18z NAM is better than the 12z and was about to obliterate us...and that is the end of my analysis of the NAM at 84 hours.  

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted

0z Nam at 78 is colder/flatter than 18z NAM. 

I don’t think the exact position of the Baja low matters that much assuming it does eventually eject most of the energy. 
 

The confluence matters but the ridging does also. One can offset the other. I think the ridging matters more. There is plenty of cold. Less southerly flow matters more. 
 

I think perhaps the most important and hardest to predict factor is the interaction with the two NS shortwaves, one over the top and the other coming in behind. The icon had one of those features gone and phased fully with the other and that’s why it went off the rails. Looking across guidance the handling of those features seems to be the most significant determinate. 

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LVblizzard

LVblizzard

Posted
Posted
Just now, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Yeah was looking at that, looks like it's popping a coastal and doesn't have a primary up in WV/PA.

Not sure that it wouldn’t take the primary up there in the end. The low is farther south than the globals but it’s also much slower. Those could cancel each other out in the end.

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baltosquid

baltosquid

Posted
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3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Unfortunately damage is probably done when it comes to mixing. I mean we have a closed 700mb low over Oklahoma! Though it is better than its 18z run no matter what.

700th.conus.png

We had a closed 700mb low over Kansas at 18z 84hr, though!

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Ji

Ji

Posted
Posted
Just now, Ji said:

1769342400-u8OKiARqWI4.png

If Nam already has 7 inches of snow on the ground....we are probably safe for 7 more as the precip gets heavier....at one point do we complain that it turned to mix. After 12 or after 15?

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SnowenOutThere

SnowenOutThere

Posted
Posted
Just now, stormtracker said:

The magnificent ICON is running.  The dookie it's going to take in the punchbowl will be glorious.

Super early on but it has a similar change to the NAM's 18z to 0z with the SW being the ever bit more held back and the NS stuff in the Pac NW being at a slightly less advantageous angle for a phase. 

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stormtracker

stormtracker

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Ji said:

If Nam already has 7 inches of snow on the ground....we are probably safe for 7 more as the precip gets heavier....at one point do we complain that it turned to mix. After 12 or after 15?

If I get to 14", I'm cool with sleet.  It's going to sleet no matter what, so that would be a win for me.

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