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NJHurricane

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About NJHurricane

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    Gloucester cty (home)/Middlesex+Essex cty (work)

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  1. Seems like a solid northerly component to our wind so far….probably 0.2” in National Park NJ across from PHL
  2. From an accumulating snow perspective I agree. Think wind potential is serious and depending on the details of our likely coastal plain track can’t rule out thunder or locally heavy rain though….but if snow is someone’s entire game at and around PHL I’d definitely hit the expectations reset button once the 12z suite is in.
  3. Son….trolling doesn’t pay much. Earn literally dozens of $$$ using this one simple trick. Real meteorologists will h8te u!!!
  4. I’ve reported your troll ass….. I’ve been here much longer than you. You’re beyond worthless.
  5. Literally every reputable forecast source emphasized the fringey uncertainty of even a barely plowable snow. I’d have loved some accumulation but nobody should be angrily surprised.
  6. First flakes in National Park, far NW Gloucester county NJ started at 4:47am
  7. Solid discussion from Mt Holly…below is the majority of the near term portion. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=PHI&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off The main change to the forecast overnight was an increase in QPF, and by association, snowfall, for areas previously within and that were just north of the previous Winter Storm Warning. The QPF increase is almost unanimously supported by the last two cycles of global and hi res guidance, and translates to an increase in snow totals. The most difficult portion of the forecast remains the northward extent of precipitation shield. Even many of the recent model runs which increased QPF across the south generally didn`t move the precipitation shield north much. The latest blend does bring amounts up somewhat in the I-95 corridor. However, there is likely to be an exceptionally sharp northern cutoff to accumulating snow, probably even sharper than the latest forecast, which as it is has a much sharper than normal gradient. Even across, for example, Philadelphia County, it would not be surprising to see a significant difference in totals. And for northern portions of the area, it will simply be a cloudy and cold day with perhaps some flurries. Confidence in snowfall is much greater for southern areas. It is clear now that a swath of heavy precipitation will overspread the region. Extreme frontogenetic forcing is allowing precipitation to expand in coverage and intensity to our southwest, and this will only continue today. While precipitation is beginning as rain in some places, temperatures are continuing to cool behind yesterday`s front, and a flip to snow will occur. One possible exception is far southeast Delaware, where rain or mix could hold on for longer. Amounts were reduced a bit there. Otherwise, a large stripe of 8 to 12 inches of snow is now forecast, and can`t rule out some localized amounts a little over 12 inches. Snowfall to our southwest has generally been over-performing, and this trend could continue into our area. Snowfall rates could easily exceed 1 inch per hour at times this morning, perhaps 2 inches per hour. While snow ratios overall will be less than 10:1, these rates will quickly overwhelm the warm ground conditions left by recent near record warmth. These snowfall rates could persist for several hours this morning and early afternoon. Banding features are certainly possible within the heavy snow shield, leading to some local variations. Eventually, precipitation will end from west to east late this afternoon and this evening as the area of low pressure moves out to sea.
  8. FWIW…NWS upgrade of Salem/Gloucester/ Camden counties in NJ about an hour before the usual zone forecast update. Guessing eastern parts of these counties look more solid to hit the 4 inch low end warning threshold
  9. Don’t they cap/secure them prior to the storm…not the rig so much as the well itself.
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