3/16/26 Severe Weather Event Thread (Moderate Risk) | Latest: 15% TOR, 60% WIND, 5% HAIL

[Eskimo Joe]

Tornado Warning coming out for Rappahannock Co., Fauquier, and Culpeper counties.

[SilentTalkie]

Lost power with first line this morning. In Nelson County. Showers have moved through and clouds are thinning out with some blue sky showing. Gusts were made 40mph range with a little lightning and half inch of rain.


.

[konksw]

Tornado warning for culpepper. 

[TSSN+]

Just now, konksw said:

Seems a bit premature…

 No it’s not. Storms rolling thru around 12-1 will wipe out any energy for anything later. 

[DDweatherman]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

If we getting severe today feel like it’s mostly coming from this line. Let’s see what it does. 

This is the main show for at least the NW crew. As a note, I’m in Denver so I’d love to see you guys get wedged… just not seeing it. 

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, H2O said:

 

I'm confused.  So which is it?  A one off HRRR run that shows nothing but a little line later today or this?

This is shown on it but weakens it so will have to see if it holds together or not. 

[nw baltimore wx]

Kind of funny that schools may be letting kids out right around the worst of things.

[TSSN+]

Just now, nw baltimore wx said:

Kind of funny that schools may be letting kids out right around the worst of things.

Should have dismissed on time lol 

[DDweatherman]

Just now, nw baltimore wx said:

Kind of funny that schools may be letting kids out right around the worst of things.

Just told @TSSN+ that. Schools up on the home front getting out at 12 when that batch over Culpeper will be moving through. 

[Pityflakes]

3 minutes ago, mappy said:

Hard to say about later but it was always supposed to be multiple rounds with the worst being later tonight. 

I know but how often does that verify?  Not saying we won't get a line of breezy showers with the trough swinging through or that isolated spots see bows, but I'd focus on what's happening now since the environment is the most primed vice later when there's potentially messy showers/stable pools/post-storm subsidence scattered everyone.  

[Darkstorm]

Should have dismissed on time lol 

They won’t and we know why they are letting out early. They don’t want the legal risk of being sued.

[mappy]

Just now, Pityflakes said:

I know but how often does that verify?  Not saying we won't get a line of breezy showers with the trough swinging through or that isolated spots see bows, but I'd focus on what's happening now since the environment is the most primed vice later when there's potentially messy showers/stable pools/post-storm subsidence scattered everyone.  

I guess you just wait and see what happens. I’m not gonna be an annoying Debbie downer about it. Weather will do what it will do. 

[Mrs.J]

Sun is starting to peak out up here. The older Ms J told me AU campus is closing at noon. 

[WeatherShak]

West of Gainesville.

[stormtracker]

7 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

The experts have been wrong before. I’m not seeing it. I wanted to call TSSN the fail mode asshole he can be, but we’re on the same page here. 

Keep us posted. 

[87storms]

I thought the main show was later this afternoon and now it’s noon? Lol

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, 87storms said:

I thought the main show was later this afternoon and now it’s noon? Lol

This isn't the main show. Likely a little meso low or something ahead of the main line.

[arlwx12]

LWX text on the tornado warning:

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Eastern Rappahannock County in northwestern Virginia...
  Northwestern Fauquier County in northern Virginia...
  Northwestern Culpeper County in northern Virginia...

* Until 1100 AM EDT.

* At 1033 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a
  tornado was located 7 miles east of Sperryville, or 12 miles
  northwest of Culpeper, moving northeast at 55 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

[TSSN+]

Just now, 87storms said:

I thought the main show was later this afternoon and now it’s noon? Lol

If you read the discos any early stuff will kill the chances for later. This line moves thru around noon then it wipe out the energy. 

[weatherwiz]

I think you always have to be careful with the multiple round scenario and more often than not, lean towards the earlier round being more of the show. Especially around these parts, forecast models can really struggle in that regard and its even more of a case when you're dealing with a largely uncapped warm sector. Typically, if you're looking for multiple rounds you want to see a moderate or extremely unstable airmass in place. 

But this is still looking extremely interesting for much of Virginia into Maryland. Given how warm the llvl airmass is, based on satellite showing a large pocket of cloud breaks and approaching high noon, it won't take much to get temperatures to jump another 5-8F. Also noting the sfc winds are more backed in this area and may continued to back even more. You're storm inflow is also pulling in from higher theta-e which resides just off the coast. Going to have some differential boundaries in play too.

[snowfan]

Just now, 87storms said:

I thought the main show was later this afternoon and now it’s noon? Lol

This has been modeled for days as a multiple piece event. One early, one closer to the evening. How it plays out is still TBD despite what the PA crew is posting.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

There does appear to be some breaks in the clouds to the east of the activity in Virginia, really depends on what happens with that I would think.  But the fact that tornado warnings are up for that batch even without destabilization prior let’s u know the atmosphere is primed. 

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

I think you always have to be careful with the multiple round scenario and more often than not, lean towards the earlier round being more of the show. Especially around these parts, forecast models can really struggle in that regard and its even more of a case when you're dealing with a largely uncapped warm sector. Typically, if you're looking for multiple rounds you want to see a moderate or extremely unstable airmass in place. 

But this is still looking extremely interesting for much of Virginia into Maryland. Given how warm the llvl airmass is, based on satellite showing a large pocket of cloud breaks and approaching high noon, it won't take much to get temperatures to jump another 5-8F. Also noting the sfc winds are more backed in this area and may continued to back even more. You're storm inflow is also pulling in from higher theta-e which resides just off the coast. Going to have some differential boundaries in play too.

Hey, I’m at uva and planning to chase. What would the best location to target be? I’m thinking near Amelia court house but curious to know your thoughts 

[87storms]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

This isn't the main show. Likely a little meso low or something ahead of the main line.

Looks kinda gaudy, though.

[clskinsfan]

Light rain in Winchester

[dailylurker]

Cool, cloudy and damp. Never seen a severe day like this lol

[LeesburgWx]

How we looking with reports from the storm ner Warrenton now? My wife is home alone in hamilton and it's heading NE right toward Loudoun

[AmericanWxFreak]

Some crapvection forming along 95 between the main batches

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Hey, I’m at uva and planning to chase. What would the best location to target be? I’m thinking near Amelia court house but curious to know your thoughts 

I am not familiar with the geography down there so I don't have much insight to provide. But does your school have good views in all directions? You really might not be in a bad spot. 

[Bob Chill]

Second warned line moving through in a few. Brief rotation down by Martinsville but my area looks like straight line stuff at worst.