3/16/26 Severe Weather Event Thread (Moderate Risk) | Latest: 15% TOR, 60% WIND, 5% HAIL

[Ephesians2]

28 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It's pretty nasty buy but not anything crazy. Biggest gusts during torrential rain and some decent CG. Power is still on lol

Yep, pretty much same experience here with this initial line. 

[EstorilM]

My three PWS (Middleburg, Leesburg, Manassas) are 66.2/63.5, 66/63.6, 65.8/62.8.  That's kinda wild that all three's temp/dp are within a single degree. 

[SnowenOutThere]

Storm to the SW of Cvill seems to have some decent rotation signature. 

[weatherwiz]

An argument can be made that the environment out ahead of the current TOR watch my actually be even more supportive for tornadoes and severe weather which is pretty striking to think about when you look at the probabilities within this watch. 

There is also potential activity out ahead of the main show could hinder the overall potential. Certainly discrete cells in this environment pose a concern but you pop main cells out ahead and they may not have as much forcing to work with (which would really help any discrete cells to maintain) and they could end up robbing some of the energy. 

[Kmlwx]

If nothing else - it has that "soupy" feel out there (not summer time soup - but moist regardless)

[TSSN+]

That stuff along 81 rushing ne. Likely will hit around 12ish and that will hinder the rest the day. 

[Kmlwx]

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

An argument can be made that the environment out ahead of the current TOR watch my actually be even more supportive for tornadoes and severe weather which is pretty striking to think about when you look at the probabilities within this watch. 

There is also potential activity out ahead of the main show could hinder the overall potential. Certainly discrete cells in this environment pose a concern but you pop main cells out ahead and they may not have as much forcing to work with (which would really help any discrete cells to maintain) and they could end up robbing some of the energy. 

To have YOU in our thread honking like this is alarming. Great analysis and we always welcome you in here with open arms. 

[Jrlg1181]

Very heavy rain

Some wind and thunder... "Whiteout" conditions with the intensity of the rain...

[clskinsfan]

Radar down in southern VA seems meh to me. A little better in western NC. We fail at all weather other than drought. But we fail the most at severe imo.

[Kmlwx]

One would think a new mesoscale discussion should be coming soon

[konksw]

Sun is out in DC.  

[LeesburgWx]

Mets in here talking about the exceptional conditions and the normal weenies come in saying Meh. Hmm, who will be right?

[MN Transplant]

2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Radar down in southern VA seems meh to me. A little better in western NC. We fail at all weather other than drought. But we fail the most at severe imo.

It is 9:45am.

[weatherCCB]

64/62

sun peaking out

[AmericanWxFreak]

Mets in here talking about the exceptional conditions and the normal weenies come in saying Meh. Hmm, who will be right?

I know where my money is. The same weenies called for a complete bust the other day when we were cloudy early on.

[weatherwiz]

53 mph gust CLT, 61 mph just east of there

[Eskimo Joe]

Sun out in Rockville. Visible satellite showing some legit breaks in the clouds.

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, MN Transplant said:

It is 9:45am.

If anything the radar seems encouraging. Lots of the showers/storms, even while weak, are attempting to spin. We just have to see if a storm gets strong enough to take advantage.

[arlwx12]

Heard from someone that her kids' Loudoun County school will close 3 hours early.

Still not posted on LCPS, WUSA or WJLA websites.

[arlwx12]

Sun weakly shining in south Arlington.

[MN Transplant]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Sun out in Rockville. Visible satellite showing some legit breaks in the clouds.

DCA and IAD have officially gone over to Broken from Overcast.  I'm up over 200 w/m2 solar like some of the mesonet sites.

[dailylurker]

40 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm rooting for EF3s that very gently disassemble things and then gently reassemble them somewhere else. 

I love this place  Sun trying to break out. 

[WxUSAF]

Was about to say sky is brighter but ya’ll are on it.

61/60, when does the snow start??

[SnowenOutThere]

UVA canceled classes after 11am. Time to start deciding if I’m chasing. 

[Kmlwx]

64 degrees with a similar dewpoint in Colesville, MD (but I'm at the office right now in Potomac) 

[csnavywx]

Little peeks of sunshine here. But too much crappy low grade convection polluting the warm sector now, especially in the east. Some is okay ofc, because ideally you don't want your LCLs too high, but still need a corridor of at least some halfway decent destabilization ahead of this afternoon's activity.

[SnowenOutThere]

Severe warned aimed at NOVA

[midatlanticweather]

Ominous temperature out right now!

 

[Jake Wx]

Already a STW  up to Culpeper

[stormtracker]

28 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

That stuff along 81 rushing ne. Likely will hit around 12ish and that will hinder the rest the day. 

Man, you really rooting against this thing.