18z GFS looks slightly northwest of 12z.
Still, just barely, keeping hope of something alive for my backyard on the border between this forum and the Mid-Atlantic forum.
31.3 in Fredericksburg. Several degrees colder than forecast. I'm under no illusions that I will get anything out of this, but might be a good sign for the western/northwestern half of this forum.
I think 99 percent of people here would "lock this in" for Christmas Eve, especially with the extended period of winter weather depicted on the 00z GFS (3-6 from "round 1", 1-3 from "round 2")
Is there any chance that the weak coastal low that initially forms trends into a light event? It looks somewhat close right now. Is there not enough cold for that to happen?
I have no idea what's going on, but it looks like it is holding less back in the Pacific Northwest, but it's also further west. Instead of two different lobes, it is one closed off low on the ND/Canada border.