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Ephesians2

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  1. Ephesians2
    Is that ridge from NW of Hawaii to Japan normal for a Nino? Or is that due to the PDO and really warm water in that area?
  2. Ephesians2
    Enjoy https://www.instagram.com/reel/DcRGIBvuVJ_/?igsi=MXpwNDJyOTdid3c5
  3. Ephesians2
    implies a bad Pacific, which I think is more likely than not unless the PDO reverses
  4. Ephesians2
    Sorry, I meant underperformed based on what would expect if you were given the 500mb composite in advance, not expectations. Bad patterns were total shutouts and mediocre patterns became bad winters. 2018-19 is the only one that I think "luck" might have been in our favor - the Pacific was awful that year.
  5. Ephesians2
    I think there's been a lot of "bad luck" the last few winters. Relative to what you'd expect with the overall pattern: 2017-18: underperformed (Dec and Jan produced very little for most of the forum) 2018-19: near expected 2020-21: MAJOR underperformance for most of the forum. 2021-22: near expected 2023-24: near expected 2024-25: slightly underperformed 2025-26: underperformed 2016-17, 19-20, and 22-23 were all awful seasonal patterns but you could argue they underperformed because they could have been like 4-8 inch seasonal totals, not total shutouts. Like even 2011-12 had a 7 inch fluke storm down here that missed DC. Hopefully we finally get the flukes to break in our favor this winter.
  6. Ephesians2
  7. Ephesians2
  8. Ephesians2
    Charlottesville is the storm magnet this month. Seems like every time I check the radar to see if I am finally getting rain down here, there is a cell over Charlottesville.
  9. Ephesians2
    **evil laughter**
  10. Ephesians2
    2024 was too weak to overcome the nina/-PDO base state. my gut feeling is warm too, but not in the way 2024 was, when we had almost a nina-like pacific pattern. that winter wasn't that wet in the MA/SE either.
  11. Ephesians2
    You guys did well in 1997-98 if I recall. I would definitely rather have some elevation this winter.
  12. Ephesians2
    It's coming.
  13. Ephesians2
    This is literally the same outlook everyone posts on youtube every single year. Not to mention - I'm trying to figure out why the northern plains are "Polar Vortex", the Rockies are snowy, the Midwest is "Arctic Blasts", the southern plains into the southeast is the ever-present "Battle Zone" --- but the mild corner is specifically most of Kansas and Nebraska, a fourth of Iowa, and half of Missouri. What pattern would produce that? I'm not sure. Perhaps somewhere had to be mild.
  14. Ephesians2
    Ah yes, "Heavy Snow Threat" in Orlando. Thanks, AI slop.
  15. Ephesians2
    94/72 in Lynchburg, VA. The airport tends to run low, still at 91. I'm curious if we will have our first 100 degree day since 2012. Point and click had 100, 101, and 102, but we don't do extreme heat well due to our elevation and lack of a real UHI leading to cooler nighttime temperatures (70 this morning).
  16. Ephesians2
    Do you know if there's a similar map for VA? Thank you!
  17. Ephesians2
    big if true
  18. Ephesians2
    Tragic...
  19. Ephesians2
  20. Ephesians2
    Yeah, I'm far from an expert, but the idea that this pattern would produce 90 degree temperatures in March in the Mid Atlantic really seems abnormal. 70s, sure. But this doesn't look record breaking. I would think you'd need a big Bermuda High and a ridge centered over the East Coast itself.
  21. Ephesians2
    84.6° feels legitimately summerlike in the sun
  22. Ephesians2
    Can confirm. My snow climo is 2 inches less than DCA, but there are plenty of days especially in the spring with CAD/NE winds where it's sunny here and 20-30 degrees cooler with mist in DC. A bit of elevation keeps the summer nights less hot as well, at least in the western half of what would be called Central VA. Lynchburg's average July low is 5 degrees cooler than DC's despite an overall warmer climate. It's still hot and humid, but I think it's preferable to NoVA/DC.
  23. Ephesians2
    Yep, pretty much same experience here with this initial line.
  24. Ephesians2
    About to get hit by this. Will report back. Some peeks of sun this morning. There is also clearly a good deal of wind shear. The breaks in the clouds reveal different layers moving in different directions.
  25. Ephesians2
    Yesterday was very close to a US all time record. Off by a few degrees on both the day of high temperature and the prior day temperature.
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