Ephesians2

I come from the future... [code] STATION: LYNCHBURG VA MONTH: JANUARY YEAR: 2027 LATITUDE: 37 19 N LONGITUDE: 79 12 W TEMPERATURE IN F: :PCPN: SNOW: WIND :SUNSHINE: SKY :PK WND ================================================================================ 1 2 3 4 5 6A 6B 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 12Z AVG MX 2MIN DY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD WTR SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX SPD DR ================================================================================ 1 73 44 59 22 6 0 0.00 0.0 0 6.0 15 300 M M 1 1 25 310 2 62 32 47 10 18 0 0.01 0.0 0 6.9 13 50 M M 7 18 50 3 53 22 38 1 27 0 0.15 0.1 0 2.5 10 40 M M 10 1 13 40 4 40 17 29 -8 36 0 0.00 0.0 0 4.0 10 200 M M 3 12 15 210 5 39 32 36 0 29 0 0.92 1.0 0 5.7 17 190 M M 10 12 25 190 6 43 29 36 0 29 0 0.10 0.0 1 4.5 15 40 M M 8 20 40 7 44 21 33 -3 32 0 0.00 0.0 0 8.7 26 200 M M 6 39 200 8 52 39 46 10 19 0 2.04 0.0 0 4.6 13 270 M M 10 1 22 280 9 46 23 35 -1 30 0 0.10 0.0 0 3.1 15 260 M M 8 12 23 280 10 43 23 33 -3 32 0 0.00 0.0 0 4.9 15 190 M M 1 22 190 11 57 26 42 6 23 0 0.00 0.0 0 8.6 23 190 M M 1 32 210 12 63 39 51 15 14 0 0.01 0.0 0 5.0 16 10 M M 5 12 30 20 13 68 44 56 21 9 0 0.00 0.0 0 11.3 30 200 M M 0 43 200 14 57 42 50 15 15 0 0.00 0.0 0 3.9 12 310 M M 0 20 310 15 56 40 48 13 17 0 0.07 0.0 0 6.9 14 40 M M 7 1 20 40 16 46 32 39 4 26 0 1.16 0.0 0 13.6 30 220 M M 10 1 48 220 17 41 23 32 -3 33 0 0.00 0.0 0 7.4 16 260 M M 3 28 270 18 44 25 35 0 30 0 0.00 0.0 0 4.8 14 190 M M 2 19 200 19 40 28 34 -1 31 0 0.00 0.0 0 2.3 9 220 M M 3 14 350 20 34 21 28 -8 37 0 T T 0 7.5 22 190 M M 6 36 180 21 38 23 31 -5 34 0 0.01 0.0 0 2.5 12 360 M M 6 21 340 22 37 23 30 -6 35 0 0.50 5.5 0 5.5 17 200 M M 10 29 270 23 34 23 29 -7 36 0 0.63 5.1 5 7.0 21 300 M M 10 36 320 24 43 24 34 -2 31 0 0.00 0.0 10 4.6 14 70 M M 0 24 40 25 53 22 38 2 27 0 0.00 0.0 8 4.9 17 190 M M 0 23 140 26 60 24 42 6 23 0 0.00 0.0 3 8.8 18 200 M M 1 28 210 27 69 37 53 17 12 0 0.21 0.0 0 7.4 17 40 M M 9 1 26 30 28 55 34 45 8 20 0 0.00 0.0 0 4.6 14 310 M M 1 30 0 29 42 30 36 -1 29 0 1.20 2.6 0 8.2 22 190 M M 10 32 200 30 34 24 29 -8 36 0 0.66 5.0 2 6.8 16 210 M M 10 22 210 31 32 20 26 -11 39 0 0.01 0.1 6 11.7 23 190 M M 8 30 200 ================================================================================ SM 1498 886 815 0 7.78 19.4 194.2 M 166 ================================================================================ AV 48.3 28.6 6.3 FASTST M M 5 MAX(MPH) MISC ----> # 30 200 48 220 ================================================================================ NOTES: # LAST OF SEVERAL OCCURRENCES COLUMN 17 PEAK WIND IN M.P.H. [/code] [code] PRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6) , PAGE 2 STATION: LYNCHBURG VA MONTH: JANUARY YEAR: 2027 LATITUDE: 37 19 N LONGITUDE: 79 12 W [TEMPERATURE DATA] [PRECIPITATION DATA] SYMBOLS USED IN COLUMN 16 AVERAGE MONTHLY: 38.7 TOTAL FOR MONTH: 7.78 1 = FOG OR MIST DPTR FM NORMAL: 2.7 DPTR FM NORMAL: +4.28 2 = FOG REDUCING VISIBILITY HIGHEST: 73 ON 1 GRTST 24HR 2.14 ON 8-9 TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS LOWEST: 17 ON 4 3 = THUNDER SNOW, ICE PELLETS, HAIL 4 = ICE PELLETS TOTAL MONTH: 19.4 INCH 5 = HAIL GRTST 24HR 10.6 ON 22-23 6 = FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE GRTST DEPTH: 10 7 = DUSTSTORM OR SANDSTORM: VSBY 1/2 MILE OR LESS 8 = SMOKE OR HAZE [NO. OF DAYS WITH] [WEATHER - DAYS WITH] 9 = BLOWING SNOW X = TORNADO MAX 32 OR BELOW: 1 0.01 INCH OR MORE: 16 MAX 90 OR ABOVE: 0 0.10 INCH OR MORE: 11 MIN 32 OR BELOW: 23 0.50 INCH OR MORE: 7 MIN 0 OR BELOW: 0 1.00 INCH OR MORE: 3 [/code] [code] STATION: LYNCHBURG VA MONTH: FEBRUARY YEAR: 2027 LATITUDE: 37 19 N LONGITUDE: 79 12 W TEMPERATURE IN F: :PCPN: SNOW: WIND :SUNSHINE: SKY :PK WND ================================================================================ 1 2 3 4 5 6A 6B 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 12Z AVG MX 2MIN DY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD WTR SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX SPD DR ================================================================================ 1 33 24 29 -8 36 0 0.00 0.0 0 6.0 15 300 M M 1 1 25 310 2 42 32 37 0 28 0 0.08 0.1 0 6.9 13 50 M M 7 18 50 3 43 22 33 -4 32 0 0.00 0.0 0 2.5 10 40 M M 10 1 13 40 4 50 27 39 2 26 0 0.00 0.0 0 4.0 10 200 M M 3 12 15 210 5 56 21 39 1 26 0 0.10 0.0 0 5.7 17 190 M M 7 12 25 190 6 43 28 36 -2 29 0 0.00 0.0 0 4.5 15 40 M M 2 20 40 7 30 21 26 -12 39 0 1.10 11.0 0 8.7 26 200 M M 10 39 200 8 32 19 26 -12 39 0 0.94 9.2 11 4.6 13 270 M M 10 1 22 280 9 26 3 15 -23 50 0 0.00 0.0 19 3.1 15 260 M M 2 12 23 280 10 33 13 23 -15 42 0 0.10 2.1 18 4.9 15 190 M M 9 22 190 11 37 16 27 -11 38 0 0.00 0.0 19 8.6 23 190 M M 1 32 210 12 43 24 34 -5 31 0 0.03 0.3 17 5.0 16 10 M M 6 12 30 20 13 58 34 46 7 19 0 0.00 0.0 14 11.3 30 200 M M 0 43 200 14 56 32 44 5 21 0 0.00 0.0 6 3.9 12 310 M M 0 20 310 15 66 50 58 19 7 0 0.57 0.0 1 6.9 14 40 M M 9 1 20 40 16 56 48 52 13 13 0 2.16 0.0 0 13.6 30 220 M M 10 3 48 220 17 51 29 40 1 25 0 1.20 0.0 0 7.4 16 260 M M 10 28 270 18 44 25 35 -5 30 0 0.00 0.0 0 4.8 14 190 M M 2 19 200 19 50 28 39 -1 26 0 0.00 0.0 0 2.3 9 220 M M 3 14 350 20 44 31 38 -2 27 0 1.32 T 0 7.5 22 190 M M 10 36 180 21 48 33 41 1 24 0 0.01 0.0 0 2.5 12 360 M M 6 21 340 22 57 33 45 5 20 0 0.00 0.0 0 5.5 17 200 M M 0 29 270 23 64 43 54 14 11 0 0.03 0.0 0 7.0 21 300 M M 6 36 320 24 53 34 44 4 21 0 0.50 0.0 0 4.6 14 70 M M 9 24 40 25 43 30 37 -4 28 0 0.00 0.0 0 4.9 17 190 M M 0 23 140 26 50 29 40 -1 25 0 0.10 0.3 0 8.8 18 200 M M 8 28 210 27 39 27 33 -8 32 0 0.31 4.0 0 7.4 17 40 M M 10 1 26 30 28 55 34 45 4 20 0 0.00 0.0 3 4.6 14 310 M M 1 30 0 ================================================================================ SM 1302 790 765 0 8.55 27.0 167.5 M 152 ================================================================================ AV 46.5 28.2 6.0 FASTST M M 5 MAX(MPH) MISC ----> # 30 220 48 220 ================================================================================ NOTES: # LAST OF SEVERAL OCCURRENCES COLUMN 17 PEAK WIND IN M.P.H. [/code] [code] PRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6) , PAGE 2 STATION: LYNCHBURG VA MONTH: FEBRUARY YEAR: 2027 LATITUDE: 37 19 N LONGITUDE: 79 12 W [TEMPERATURE DATA] [PRECIPITATION DATA] SYMBOLS USED IN COLUMN 16 AVERAGE MONTHLY: 37.7 TOTAL FOR MONTH: 8.55 1 = FOG OR MIST DPTR FM NORMAL: -1.3 DPTR FM NORMAL: +5.65 2 = FOG REDUCING VISIBILITY HIGHEST: 66 ON 15 GRTST 24HR 3.36 ON 16-17 TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS LOWEST: 3 ON 9 3 = THUNDER SNOW, ICE PELLETS, HAIL 4 = ICE PELLETS TOTAL MONTH: 27.0 INCH 5 = HAIL GRTST 24HR 20.2 ON 7-8 6 = FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE GRTST DEPTH: 19 7 = DUSTSTORM OR SANDSTORM: VSBY 1/2 MILE OR LESS 8 = SMOKE OR HAZE [NO. OF DAYS WITH] [WEATHER - DAYS WITH] 9 = BLOWING SNOW X = TORNADO MAX 32 OR BELOW: 3 0.01 INCH OR MORE: 15 MAX 90 OR ABOVE: 0 0.10 INCH OR MORE: 11 MIN 32 OR BELOW: 20 0.50 INCH OR MORE: 7 MIN 0 OR BELOW: 0 1.00 INCH OR MORE: 4 [HDD (BASE 65) ] TOTAL THIS MO. 765 CLEAR (SCALE 0-3) 12 DPTR FM NORMAL +37 PTCLDY (SCALE 4-7) 5 TOTAL FM JUL 1 2708 CLOUDY (SCALE 8-10) 11 DPTR FM NORMAL -539 [CDD (BASE 65) ] TOTAL THIS MO. 0 DPTR FM NORMAL 0 [PRESSURE DATA] TOTAL FM JAN 1 0 HIGHEST SLP 30.61 ON 9 DPTR FM NORMAL 0 LOWEST SLP 29.24 ON 16 [/code] [code] CXUS51 KRNK 011132 CF6LYH PRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6) STATION: LYNCHBURG VA MONTH: MARCH YEAR: 2027 LATITUDE: 37 19 N LONGITUDE: 79 12 W TEMPERATURE IN F: :PCPN: SNOW: WIND :SUNSHINE: SKY :PK WND ================================================================================ 1 2 3 4 5 6A 6B 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 12Z AVG MX 2MIN DY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD WTR SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX SPD DR ================================================================================ 1 54 34 44 2 21 0 0.00 0.0 0 6.0 15 300 M M 1 1 25 310 2 36 32 34 -8 31 0 0.88 4.3 0 12.4 25 40 M M 10 33 40 3 33 22 28 -14 37 0 2.10 19.0 4 18.7 38 30 M M 10 9 46 30 4 30 17 24 -18 41 0 0.20 2.0 21 15.2 31 320 M M 10 9 40 320 5 41 12 27 -16 38 0 0.00 0.0 22 8.3 20 320 M M 1 28 320 6 50 24 37 -6 28 0 0.00 0.0 18 7.1 17 310 M M 2 24 300 7 58 33 46 3 19 0 0.00 0.0 13 5.4 13 220 M M 3 18 210 8 68 44 56 12 9 0 0.32 0.0 8 9.8 24 190 M M 8 12 32 190 9 73 54 64 20 1 0 1.45 0.0 3 13.4 30 190 M M 10 12 41 190 10 78 60 69 25 0 4 2.30 0.0 0 15.1 34 200 M M 10 3 49 200 11 84 64 74 29 0 9 0.85 0.0 0 17.3 39 210 M M 9 35 61 220 12 73 50 62 17 3 0 0.40 0.0 0 14.6 36 280 M M 8 3 46 290 13 54 36 45 0 20 0 0.00 0.0 0 12.0 30 310 M M 3 39 310 14 57 33 45 0 20 0 0.00 0.0 0 7.9 18 320 M M 1 25 320 15 61 37 49 3 16 0 0.00 0.0 0 6.2 15 220 M M 2 21 230 16 65 42 54 8 11 0 0.12 0.0 0 8.1 19 200 M M 7 26 210 17 52 38 45 -1 20 0 0.47 0.0 0 9.3 22 40 M M 10 1 29 40 18 48 31 40 -7 25 0 0.00 0.0 0 10.7 26 320 M M 3 34 320 19 55 29 42 -5 23 0 0.00 0.0 0 6.5 16 290 M M 1 22 290 20 62 34 48 1 17 0 0.00 0.0 0 5.8 14 230 M M 2 19 240 21 68 41 55 7 10 0 0.00 0.0 0 7.7 20 210 M M 3 26 210 22 71 48 60 12 5 0 0.05 0.0 0 9.0 23 200 M M 6 31 200 23 63 45 54 6 11 0 0.62 0.0 0 10.2 25 270 M M 9 1 33 280 24 56 37 47 -1 18 0 0.00 0.0 0 8.8 21 310 M M 2 28 310 25 59 34 47 -2 18 0 0.00 0.0 0 6.4 15 320 M M 1 20 320 26 55 32 44 -5 21 0 0.00 0.0 0 7.2 18 40 M M 6 24 40 27 37 31 34 -15 31 0 0.22 2.0 0 9.8 22 40 M M 10 29 40 28 35 30 33 -17 32 0 0.13 1.4 2 11.4 26 10 M M 10 33 10 29 49 27 38 -12 27 0 0.00 0.0 3 9.6 22 330 M M 4 29 330 30 58 33 46 -4 19 0 0.00 0.0 0 6.8 16 250 M M 2 22 250 31 66 40 53 2 12 0 0.00 0.0 0 5.9 14 210 M M 1 19 210 ================================================================================ SM 1749 1124 584 13 10.11 28.7 302.6 M 165 ================================================================================ AV 56.4 36.3 9.8 FASTST M M 5 MAX(MPH) MISC ----> 39 210 61 220 ================================================================================ NOTES: COLUMN 17 PEAK WIND IN M.P.H. [/code] [code] PRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6) , PAGE 2 STATION: LYNCHBURG VA MONTH: MARCH YEAR: 2027 LATITUDE: 37 19 N LONGITUDE: 79 12 W [TEMPERATURE DATA] [PRECIPITATION DATA] SYMBOLS USED IN COLUMN 16 AVERAGE MONTHLY: 46.6 TOTAL FOR MONTH: 10.11 1 = FOG OR MIST DPTR FM NORMAL: +0.5 DPTR FM NORMAL: +6.31 2 = FOG REDUCING VISIBILITY HIGHEST: 84 ON 11 GRTST 24HR 3.75 ON 9-10 TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS LOWEST: 12 ON 5 3 = THUNDER SNOW, ICE PELLETS, HAIL 4 = ICE PELLETS TOTAL MONTH: 28.7 INCH 5 = HAIL GRTST 24HR 23.3 ON 2-3 6 = FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE GRTST DEPTH: 22 7 = DUSTSTORM OR SANDSTORM: VSBY 1/2 MILE OR LESS 8 = SMOKE OR HAZE [NO. OF DAYS WITH] [WEATHER - DAYS WITH] 9 = BLOWING SNOW X = TORNADO MAX 32 OR BELOW: 1 0.01 INCH OR MORE: 14 MAX 90 OR ABOVE: 0 0.10 INCH OR MORE: 13 MIN 32 OR BELOW: 11 0.50 INCH OR MORE: 6 MIN 0 OR BELOW: 0 1.00 INCH OR MORE: 3 [HDD (BASE 65) ] TOTAL THIS MO. 584 CLEAR (SCALE 0-3) 15 DPTR FM NORMAL -3 PTCLDY (SCALE 4-7) 4 TOTAL FM JUL 1 3292 CLOUDY (SCALE 8-10) 12 DPTR FM NORMAL -542 [CDD (BASE 65) ] TOTAL THIS MO. 13 DPTR FM NORMAL +13 [PRESSURE DATA] TOTAL FM JAN 1 13 HIGHEST SLP 30.68 ON 5 DPTR FM NORMAL +13 LOWEST SLP 28.97 ON 3 [/code]

I come from the future. STATION: LYNCHBURG VA MONTH: DECEMBER YEAR: 2026 LATITUDE: 37 19 N LONGITUDE: 79 12 W TEMPERATURE IN F: :PCPN: SNOW: WIND :SUNSHINE: SKY :PK WND ================================================================================ 1 2 3 4 5 6A 6B 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 12Z AVG MX 2MIN DY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD WTR SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX SPD DR ================================================================================ 1 73 45 59 17 6 0 0.00 0.0 0 6.0 15 300 M M 1 1 25 310 2 52 42 47 5 18 0 1.18 0.0 0 6.9 13 50 M M 10 18 50 3 49 37 43 1 22 0 0.95 0.0 0 2.5 10 40 M M 10 1 13 40 4 60 37 49 7 16 0 0.00 0.0 0 4.0 10 200 M M 3 12 15 210 5 69 42 56 15 9 0 0.00 0.0 0 5.7 17 190 M M 1 12 25 190 6 73 49 61 20 4 0 0.00 0.0 0 4.5 15 40 M M 2 20 40 7 70 51 61 20 4 0 0.00 0.0 0 8.7 26 200 M M 6 39 200 8 62 49 56 15 9 0 0.64 0.0 0 4.6 13 270 M M 9 1 22 280 9 66 43 55 14 10 0 0.00 0.0 0 3.1 15 260 M M 2 12 23 280 10 73 53 63 23 2 0 0.00 0.0 0 4.9 15 190 M M 1 22 190 11 77 56 67 27 0 2 0.00 0.0 0 8.6 23 190 M M 1 32 210 12 63 39 51 11 14 0 1.48 0.0 0 5.0 16 10 M M 10 12 30 20 13 58 34 46 6 19 0 0.00 0.0 0 11.3 30 200 M M 0 43 200 14 67 32 50 10 15 0 0.00 0.0 0 3.9 12 310 M M 0 20 310 15 76 50 63 24 2 0 0.07 0.0 0 6.9 14 40 M M 7 1 20 40 16 66 42 54 15 11 0 2.16 0.0 0 13.6 30 220 M M 10 3 48 220 17 51 33 42 3 23 0 0.00 0.0 0 7.4 16 260 M M 3 28 270 18 64 45 55 16 10 0 0.20 0.0 0 4.8 14 190 M M 8 19 200 19 70 48 59 20 6 0 0.00 0.0 0 2.3 9 220 M M 3 14 350 20 74 51 63 25 2 0 T 0.0 0 7.5 22 190 M M 6 36 180 21 68 53 61 23 4 0 0.01 0.0 0 2.5 12 360 M M 6 21 340 22 77 44 61 23 4 0 0.00 0.0 0 5.5 17 200 M M 0 29 270 23 74 43 59 21 6 0 0.03 0.0 0 7.0 21 300 M M 6 36 320 24 63 44 54 16 11 0 0.00 0.0 0 4.6 14 70 M M 0 24 40 25 73 43 58 21 7 0 0.00 0.0 0 4.9 17 190 M M 0 23 140 26 80 54 67 30 0 2 0.10 0.0 0 8.8 18 200 M M 7 3 28 210 27 69 47 58 21 7 0 2.31 0.0 0 7.4 17 40 M M 10 13 26 30 28 55 34 45 8 20 0 0.00 0.0 0 4.6 14 310 M M 1 30 0 29 42 37 40 3 25 0 0.62 0.0 0 8.2 22 190 M M 10 32 200 30 61 44 53 17 12 0 0.16 0.0 0 6.8 16 210 M M 8 22 210 31 62 50 56 20 9 0 3.70 0.0 0 11.7 23 190 M M 10 3 30 200 ================================================================================ SM 2037 1371 307 4 13.61 0.0 194.2 M 86 ================================================================================ AV 65.7 44.2 6.3 FASTST M M 5 MAX(MPH) MISC ----> # 30 200 48 220 ================================================================================ NOTES: # LAST OF SEVERAL OCCURRENCES COLUMN 17 PEAK WIND IN M.P.H. PRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6) , PAGE 2 STATION: LYNCHBURG VA MONTH: DECEMBER YEAR: 2026 LATITUDE: 37 19 N LONGITUDE: 79 12 W [TEMPERATURE DATA] [PRECIPITATION DATA] SYMBOLS USED IN COLUMN 16 AVERAGE MONTHLY: 55.2 TOTAL FOR MONTH: 13.61 1 = FOG OR MIST DPTR FM NORMAL: 16.0 DPTR FM NORMAL: +10.11 2 = FOG REDUCING VISIBILITY 3 = THUNDER

About 12 inches below normal precip YTD and still in D2 down here. Hopefully this knocks about 2 inches or so off the deficit. It is awfully dry in a lot of places.

I'll take it.

Not off to a good start. NWS forecast for "a half to three quarters of an inch" overnight - actually still completely dry. Month to date precip? 0.3".

The Eternal Nina of 2016-2026 continues.

is that ridge south of the aleutians a nino pattern?

already pretty neutral looking, we'll almost certainly have a positve PDO by November/December. We also got a pretty good pacific pattern the last two winters even with Nina/-PDO

The warm pool definitely isn't as extreme as it was a month ago

Not sure what you mean. It's part of the -PDO that has been around for years and was why 2023-24 was so weird. Hopefully we see that warm blob actually break down into the fall.

If you really squint you can see the warmth around Japan dissipating a bit

Is that ridge from NW of Hawaii to Japan normal for a Nino? Or is that due to the PDO and really warm water in that area?

Enjoy https://www.instagram.com/reel/DcRGIBvuVJ_/?igsi=MXpwNDJyOTdid3c5

implies a bad Pacific, which I think is more likely than not unless the PDO reverses

Sorry, I meant underperformed based on what would expect if you were given the 500mb composite in advance, not expectations. Bad patterns were total shutouts and mediocre patterns became bad winters. 2018-19 is the only one that I think "luck" might have been in our favor - the Pacific was awful that year.

I think there's been a lot of "bad luck" the last few winters. Relative to what you'd expect with the overall pattern: 2017-18: underperformed (Dec and Jan produced very little for most of the forum) 2018-19: near expected 2020-21: MAJOR underperformance for most of the forum. 2021-22: near expected 2023-24: near expected 2024-25: slightly underperformed 2025-26: underperformed 2016-17, 19-20, and 22-23 were all awful seasonal patterns but you could argue they underperformed because they could have been like 4-8 inch seasonal totals, not total shutouts. Like even 2011-12 had a 7 inch fluke storm down here that missed DC. Hopefully we finally get the flukes to break in our favor this winter.

Charlottesville is the storm magnet this month. Seems like every time I check the radar to see if I am finally getting rain down here, there is a cell over Charlottesville.

**evil laughter**

2024 was too weak to overcome the nina/-PDO base state. my gut feeling is warm too, but not in the way 2024 was, when we had almost a nina-like pacific pattern. that winter wasn't that wet in the MA/SE either.

You guys did well in 1997-98 if I recall. I would definitely rather have some elevation this winter.

It's coming.

This is literally the same outlook everyone posts on youtube every single year. Not to mention - I'm trying to figure out why the northern plains are "Polar Vortex", the Rockies are snowy, the Midwest is "Arctic Blasts", the southern plains into the southeast is the ever-present "Battle Zone" --- but the mild corner is specifically most of Kansas and Nebraska, a fourth of Iowa, and half of Missouri. What pattern would produce that? I'm not sure. Perhaps somewhere had to be mild.