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Ephesians2

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Everything posted by Ephesians2

  1. Ephesians2
    Yeah models are looking surprisingly decent for tomorrow for Central VA. Both NAM and HRRR have at least 0.10" QPF. Might be nice for areas that missed out on the last two threats
  2. Ephesians2
  3. Ephesians2
    I got a trace of sleet on the sidewalk overnight
  4. Ephesians2
    now all rain
  5. Ephesians2
    started as sleet here in Lynchburg a few minutes ago, 35 degrees
  6. Ephesians2
    Anyone have the 18z Euro/Euro AI?
  7. Ephesians2
    Yeah the follow up wave is our only shot at our latitude This is the type of thing that can trend north and juice up in the short-medium range, though, imo. Might get a 1-3" deal out of it.
  8. Ephesians2
    01.31.2026 - 0.2" Total 12.7"
  9. Ephesians2
    reports of 6-12 inches just 50 miles to my south current total: 0.2" oh well I was so close
  10. Ephesians2
    yeah, but just barely. it's actually been snowing at incredibly slow rates since about 7:00 this morning. Only a dusting though, it's just been that dry.
  11. Ephesians2
    yeah... we were so close now watch whatever happens middle of next week be a DC-Baltimore special and miss us by the same amount to the north at least we got the December events!
  12. Ephesians2
    Yes, slightly so. Not what we need in Central VA but it is so, so close.
  13. Ephesians2
    For RIC it has 7" of snow on 0.2" precip But where it is REALLY broken is along the northwest fringe, as you can see there is basically no QPF but the NBM is still showing accumulating snow.
  14. Ephesians2
    the NBM is unfortunately broken. its ratios are wildly overstated - I know there have been discussions of 15-20:1 ratios, but the ratios the NBM uses at least on the weatherbell maps are like 40:1, 50:1, or even more in some situations
  15. Ephesians2
    It's trended NW a bit with the upper low. the problem is we have other features trending in the wrong direction
  16. Ephesians2
    It would seem like suppression is not the concern if that depiction holds. This week we have a strong PNA ridge. Not the case in that map.
  17. Ephesians2
    We are so close in Central VA to either a near total whiff or a widespread warning level event.
  18. Ephesians2
    Yeah we have three different surface lows on the GFS. Really weird depiction that robs a lot of moisture. Despite a bit of improvement at 500mb its going to be about the same as 06z with respect to snow
  19. Ephesians2
    At 36h the GFS is a tick west at 500mb. If the CAMs are right about this second Bermuda low it won't matter. But worth noting
  20. Ephesians2
    RGEM trending in the wrong direction. Drier, more progressive.
  21. Ephesians2
    We are getting most of the trends we want at 500mb but it looks like we have another low developing way offshore robbing moisture from the main one
  22. Ephesians2
    12z NAM looks better at 500mb at 45h. West of both 00z and 06z and a tad less confluence
  23. Ephesians2
    it's going to be a bump about 50 miles north with the precip shield... gets warning level snow back into the RIC area... really quite similar to the 18z euro, maybe a bit less snow
  24. Ephesians2
    The Fidget Spinner Storm
  25. Ephesians2
    All we need is that 500mb low to be 100 miles north. I genuinely think we can get that trend. One thing that did trend in the wrong direction was that stupid shortwave in the Plains. If we can get that out of the way it would be great
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