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Ephesians2

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Everything posted by Ephesians2

  1. Ephesians2
    Yeah we have three different surface lows on the GFS. Really weird depiction that robs a lot of moisture. Despite a bit of improvement at 500mb its going to be about the same as 06z with respect to snow
  2. Ephesians2
    At 36h the GFS is a tick west at 500mb. If the CAMs are right about this second Bermuda low it won't matter. But worth noting
  3. Ephesians2
    RGEM trending in the wrong direction. Drier, more progressive.
  4. Ephesians2
    We are getting most of the trends we want at 500mb but it looks like we have another low developing way offshore robbing moisture from the main one
  5. Ephesians2
    12z NAM looks better at 500mb at 45h. West of both 00z and 06z and a tad less confluence
  6. Ephesians2
    it's going to be a bump about 50 miles north with the precip shield... gets warning level snow back into the RIC area... really quite similar to the 18z euro, maybe a bit less snow
  7. Ephesians2
    The Fidget Spinner Storm
  8. Ephesians2
    All we need is that 500mb low to be 100 miles north. I genuinely think we can get that trend. One thing that did trend in the wrong direction was that stupid shortwave in the Plains. If we can get that out of the way it would be great
  9. Ephesians2
    Ok later on we get some minor negative changes that offset it. Looks like it'll be pretty similar to 18z
  10. Ephesians2
    ICON wasn't showing a storm at all until 2 runs ago. Toss. I trust the Euro suite.
  11. Ephesians2
    At 66h RGEM might be a hair better looking at 500mb
  12. Ephesians2
    Meh, it looks a tad more progressive (at 60h)
  13. Ephesians2
    NAM isn't going to get it done. Not closing off and turning negative in time. It's a bit of a step back from 18z. I'd trust the Euro over the NAM at this range any time though, especially at 500mb.
  14. Ephesians2
    Stolen from the Southeast Forum:
  15. Ephesians2
    still a lot of uncertainty with respect to the placement of the low will need to see how this plays out, but I genuinely think there's an outside chance those numbers we are currently seeing over NC end up over Richmond (of course there is also a higher than usual chance of a total fail)
  16. Ephesians2
    not only that, ULL driven snow can have high ratios. you can have mid ratios with very cold temperatures. (our ratios with the front end of this last storm were pretty bad) BUT if you get snow from the ULL pass or the back end of a coastal it can promote high ratio snow I verified 17:1 ratios with the ULL from the Feb 19-20 storm
  17. Ephesians2
    WPC seems to be assuming a bit of a north trend
  18. Ephesians2
    I'll be sweating that cutoff here. I hope NC does well, but I also hope I don't get fringed twice in a row
  19. Ephesians2
    at 78h on the 18z GFS: more progressive and south of 12z clear step back
  20. Ephesians2
    AIGFS drier and east of 12z
  21. Ephesians2
    it sure would be funny if the GFS and Euro switched places again not saying that will happen of course
  22. Ephesians2
    At 42h the GFS looks east of 12z at 500mb...
  23. Ephesians2
    very consistent
  24. Ephesians2
    ICON isn't going to be quite as atrocious lol
  25. Ephesians2
    PNA ridge just a little bit east of ideal. it really is unfortunate how we have to get pretty much everything right to get snow
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