It does come up the coast after that, but doesn't really get going enough until it is well offshore. Definitely in line with trends we have been seeing tonight.
UKMET is losing most of the northern component to the low - it's a weaker and further south storm for sure. Surface low in the Gulf of Mexico at 96. It'll be a moderate hit for Richmond and Hampton Roads though.
UKMET is definitely less amped than 12z (which was the furthest north and west, so that might not mean much). Also seeing the PV significantly south of 12z at 81.
GFS is still pretty progressive, dry, and fast. The jackpot of 6-10" is from Richmond to the southern Delmarva. Looks like it's slightly better than the last run for Hampton Roads.
We aren't really losing the big storms, just the light and moderate ones. That seems like the real problem. There have been much larger intervals without an 18"+ or 12"+ storm.
https://www.weather.gov/lwx/winter_storm-pr