Ephesians2

EPS southeast of 06z but still with some more tucked members. definitely a big step back on the snowfall mean - went from 4" in DC at 10:1 6z to 2"

I think suppression or an OTS track is more likely. We likely have a very strong -NAO and a +PNA ridge centered in the interior west. Seems very different from this week.

What was your total? I think that if I had been able to measure properly last night, it would have been close to 5-6 inches total, but it all just compacted into a glacier under the sleet.

01.24-25.2026 4.3" (depth, but don't have objective justification for anything higher since I was asleep when it flipped) Total 12.5"

Precip shut off in Lynchburg, VA - snow/sleet depth measured in multiple locations is 4.3", mostly sleet. Probably got close to 2 inches of snow before the flip and 3-4" of sleet which pulverized the dry snow. Only a trace of freezing rain which is a welcome blessing. Certainly a memorable storm that will stick around for a while.

Moderate/heavy sleet with temps at 23 degrees in Lynchburg, VA. Had a period of ZR with lighter rates, but really only a glaze of ice. Not much precip left. Central/Southern VA as well as the NC Piedmont seem to really have dodged a bullet.

Back to sleet with heavier precip. Seemingly rate dependent.

Unfortunately the slug of precip from the west just started here (Lynchburg, VA) and it is Freezing Rain.

Just flipped to ZR in Lynchburg, surface temperature at 22.

Still pouring sleet an hour south of you - surface temps have risen from 14 to 16 in the last hour or so. No sign of freezing rain. I'm really not sure what the total is, but it's at least 2 inches of sleet so far. Depth is about 3.25 inches or so. Whatever snow fell before about 1-2 AM last night has been compacted under a lot of sleet.

Slightly over an inch in Lynchburg. It's been pretty light snow. Hoping the band about to move in isn't sleet.

It also seems too dry. It doesn't have most of the heavier precip just north of the VA/NC border.

Probably means nothing, but the 00z 3k NAM initialized at 19 degrees for my location, right now it's 14 degrees according to my thermometer and 13 degrees at the airport a few miles south of me.

took this picture about 25 minutes ago Rates have been pretty light so far but it's accumulating snow. 14/3, looks like surface temps, already a bit below forecast, still have room to drop a little bit

Pixie dust... very very very light dusting 17/-3

Light flurries in Lynchburg.

Are you sure that dew point is right? Mine is -5 right now lol Also... LET'S GO!!

Campbell County Schools just south of Lynchburg indicated they will likely close for the entire week.

So I am far from an expert on these issues, so take this with a grain of salt, but I'm actually not that surprised that this went north. There's one big ingredient missing and that's the PNA. If you look at the composites of a major snowstorm, we should have a ridge over the West coast, ideally centered a little bit inland, instead, we have a trough there. We should have a negatively tilted trough centered to our southwest, instead we had a Southeast Ridge. We could have done well if the southern stream and northern stream stayed separate, from a longer overrunning event like some models showed, but once it trended towards phasing out west, it was really inevitable that it was going to go north. The upper level pattern looks much more like big ice storms than big snow storms.

When do entries close?

How good is the HRRR precip type algorithm? Is it like the Euro with a lot of sleet depicted as freezing rain? Here it looks like the sleet zone is pretty narrow compared to other models. Do you think that is legit?

Good trends overnight

I genuinely don't understand what Blacksburg is thinking. My point and click adds up to 8-14", more than any model except the GFS

At 69h it's a bit further north with the mix. Snow maps are not going to look as good because it doesn't have as much of initial thump