Ephesians2

Looks like 1-3" with fairly marginal temperatures.

The snowstorm of March 2-5, 2026, was an extraordinary late-season weather event that brought widespread disruption to the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast United States. Following an otherwise average winter with near-normal temperatures, the storm emerged from a significant shift in atmospheric patterns. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) sharply dropped, resulting in a blocking ridge over Greenland. This pattern supported the stalling of a cutoff upper-level low, which interacted with a slow-moving surface low-pressure system. As the storm meandered over Alabama, Georgia, and North Carolina before stalling off the Outer Banks, it created a unique setup for prolonged and intense snowfall across the region. Temperatures during the storm hovered near freezing, creating a perfect environment for heavy, wet snow. On March 4th, snowfall rates of 2 to 4 inches per hour were recorded across Virginia and Maryland, making travel nearly impossible and leading to widespread power outages. The Washington, D.C. area experienced significant snowfall, with totals of 12.6 inches at DCA, 18.1 inches at IAD, and 16.2 inches at BWI. The heaviest snow, however, fell in a corridor stretching southwest of D.C., from Roanoke and Lynchburg, Virginia, to Winchester and Hagerstown, Maryland. Another secondary maximum extended across southern and eastern Maryland into southern Delaware. Augusta and Rockingham Counties in Virginia reported over two feet of snow, tying records set during the historic Blizzard of 1993. This snowstorm's impact was particularly severe due to the timing and intensity of the snowfall. With spring nearing, many areas were unprepared for such a significant winter event, amplifying the disruption. The storm not only highlighted the unpredictable nature of late-season winter weather but also underscored the importance of atmospheric dynamics, such as the NAO and upper-level blocking patterns, in shaping regional weather extremes. In the aftermath, the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast faced days of recovery, as residents worked to dig out from the heavy snowfall and return to normalcy.

Sleet with a few mangled snowflakes in Lynchburg, maybe a trace of accumulation on grassy/elevated surfaces. This wasn't in the forecast for us - was supposed to be all rain. 33/31.

BWI: 4.1 DCA: 1.3 IAD: 3.0 RIC: 5.5 Tiebreaker (LYH) - 7.0

Definitely looks like an improvement.

GFS says there's still a chance for the far west/SW fringe.

18z GFS looks slightly northwest of 12z. Still, just barely, keeping hope of something alive for my backyard on the border between this forum and the Mid-Atlantic forum.

GFS is not moving in the right direction. Seems weaker and further SW at 66.

Don't think I've ever seen anything like this before.

Lynchburg, VA 2/2/2023 - 0.1" Total - 0.1"

11.1 just W of Fredericksburg City.

Seven degrees colder than forecast! (38 degrees with cold rain versus 45 degrees with cold rain )

Yeah, it almost certainly is... never mind. Checked some stations on Wunderground and it's probably actually in the lower 20s.

31.3 in Fredericksburg. Several degrees colder than forecast. I'm under no illusions that I will get anything out of this, but might be a good sign for the western/northwestern half of this forum.

The GEFS looks very similar to the main GFS with respect to the trend. Maybe it's SLIGHTLY to the east.

I think 99 percent of people here would "lock this in" for Christmas Eve, especially with the extended period of winter weather depicted on the 00z GFS (3-6 from "round 1", 1-3 from "round 2")

159...

At 144... 3-6" centered upon the DC/Baltimore corridor has already fallen from the initial coastal low.

I'd take this for sure, no matter what happens with the second low.

Is there any chance that the weak coastal low that initially forms trends into a light event? It looks somewhat close right now. Is there not enough cold for that to happen?

Definitely further west at 96.

I have no idea what's going on, but it looks like it is holding less back in the Pacific Northwest, but it's also further west. Instead of two different lobes, it is one closed off low on the ND/Canada border.