Ephesians2
-
Posts
573 -
Joined
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by Ephesians2
-
I think there's a reason why model verification scores are based on 500mb, not surface depictions. That just wouldn't happen IRL.
-
If it actually did play out in the way the GFS advertises, it would seem to me like it would trend north, and the DC/Maryland people would get 18-24" while Richmond to MBY gets 8-12" Just climo.
-
Snow map is basically identical to 12z
-
even more negatively tilted than 12z
-
Yeah it has some BIG hits mixed in...
-
FWIW... the ICON ensemble has a noticeably larger number of lows along the coast compared to 12z. Not sure it follows the op's idea of splitting the energy.
-
the #1 rule of looking at model trends: The trends I like will continue. The trends I don't like are flukes.
-
That's from 12z NAM Not like it matters, but 18z NAM looks east in its fantasy range
-
It is more consolidated which is what we would expect. At this range I think they tend to follow the op
-
Not what we need but it's improved from 06z and 00z.
-
EPS mean a bit west of 12z with the 500mb low at 102h. Looks more amped too.
-
Looking at 108h on the 12z Euro, I see: - surface low 100 miles west of 06z - 996 mb on the 12z, 1004 mb on the 06z Also at 102h, I see a 500mb low that is over 100 miles southwest of 06z, as well as being less positively tilted and better organized. What am I missing? Sure it's not enough, and not as good as the runs from a couple of days ago, but I don't think it's time to throw in the towel yet.
-
-
102h- closed off low over east TN Looks like it's about 50 miles east across the board
-
12z CMC at 96h somewhat less amplified and further east
-
One glimmer of hope might be provided by the fact that most of the models have a strong negative NAO and a west-based block for this period. The beach blizzards of 2018 and 2022 were both pacific driven cold patterns with no blocking. Perhaps a block will help capture the shortwave and make it slow down and amplify more instead of being more progressive and sliding offshore. Or maybe it'll suppress it more. I don't know lol
-
I really wish we had the Euro on our side and not the GFS But at least not everything is trending in the wrong direction!
-
At 75h, the northern stream energy definitely looks a bit west of 06z. I have no idea how this changes things but its noticeable
-
Blacksburg AFD from this evening:
-
-
Yep - we did really well in early December, then reverted back to our climo with the latest storm. It is what it is, and that sleet pack isn't going anywhere anytime soon.
-
-
If that's "not a hit", you all are either pretty spoiled by this last storm or from New England
-
Come on... it would be almost funny if these slop weather pages didn't get ad revenue and clicks for posting ridiculous nonsense like this (and make everyone else think the weather is basically not predictable at all) ...
-
Precip type struggles aside, it was a whole lot better than the GFS.
