Ephesians2

Central VA generally doesn't do well with anything other than an already developed low moving into cold air. For example, the second Feb 2010 storm was either a total whiff or a light event here. That's why I'd, based on pure semi-educated guess, lean towards a lower total. The precip has to develop mostly over us due to the coastal/ULL. I'd love to be proven wrong though lol

00z NAM is going to absolutely pummel RIC especially south side of RIC metro. It also keeps precip around for longer

That's awful. I really don't have the words to say, except that our family will be praying for your wife and yourself as well.

Local Lynchburg meteorologists as well as the Blacksburg NWS are staying pretty conservative (all are saying 1-3). Interestingly Richmond meteorologists and the Wakefield NWS have higher totals which leads to the weird cutoff with watches versus advisories and in the NWS snow maps. Of course a 1-3" deal still could happen and honestly its my gut feeling, but if the Euro is right, a lot of people will be very surprised tomorrow and there could be quite a mess in Lynchburg/Roanoke.

The last few years have just been very paltry everywhere, so there's more random variation with one or two storms versus six or seven. Lower numbers = higher standard deviation. Like in 2011- 2012, Central Virginia got a random storm that dropped 4-8" and ended up with more snow than DC/Baltimore. That was the only snow that winter. If we're moving back into a more favorable climo, we will go back to a more normal regional distribution.

Love your posts. What do you think about the Euro? Seems like an outlier (and to a lesser extent the NAM 3k) in holding to a relatively weak storm that doesn't bring accumulating snow outside of the Smokies and eastern NC? What are the differences between the way the Euro develops the system and the GFS/Canadian/ICON/HRRR? I imagine it's a stronger trough over New England and/or a weaker shortwave?

Lynchburg, VA 12.05.2025 - 3.4" Total 3.4"

Just measured 3 inches exactly. Grass is covered and still have some light snow.

2.2"

OK, that's enough. No more north shifts lol

Big Improvement on the Canadian for Monday

The CMC looks a lot closer for the Monday potential, as in it is not completely out to sea anymore

It seems to have a stronger storm and less positively tilted trough, but also trended way south with the confluence over eastern Canada/New England

Actually looks like the jackpot's going to be in North Carolina with moderate snow into Central VA, which doesn't seem like a terrible situation to be in at this range

CMC noticeably north again. Northern edge of the precip shield in Central VA vs NC last run

CMC made a substantial shift north with the Friday event. It still isn't close enough for anyone on this forum, but it's only about 100 miles away from a hit versus 400 miles

FWIW dropped to 31 degrees here, which although it seems to be partially local/microclimate related, it is lower than forecast. Blacksburg seems to think the cold overperforms as well (most models have all rain) Hope the DC area gets an overperformer! Not much chance down here though

DCA: -1.5 NYC: -1.0 BOS: -1.5 ORD: -2.5 ATL: 0.5 IAH: 1.5 DEN: 2.0 PHX: 4.0 SEA: 3.0

I didn't realize the SOI was positive or neutral in 2023-24 except for in January. What a weird winter.

Oct 2024 had positive EPO: Oct 2023 was negative: Oct 2022 was neutral... Oct 2021 was positive. Oct 2020 looks neutral maybe slightly negative. Oct 2019 had a slightly negative EPO and 2019-20 was very positive. So looking back at the last few years, there isn't a single year where this correlation has actually existed. Maybe 2017-18 but it's weak. I think we can look at these correlations, but even in what you showed the significance seems to be pretty minor. I'm not sure this is a causal relationship at all, and if it is, it's a very, very minor factor.

Well, to be fair, he's right that a warm October doesn't necessarily mean a warm winter in the east. October 2011 was cold, while October 2010, 2013, 2014 were above average. November is more correlated in my understanding.

DCA +4.3 NYC +3.8 BOS +3.5 ORD: +5.4 ATL: +4.0 IAH: +3.6 DEN: +1.0 PHX: +1.3 SEA: -0.5

I could see it being a -EPO / -PNA / southeast ridge kind of winter with a few brief but relatively intense cold shots but overall warmer than last year. I've heard that the North Atlantic anomalies signal a +NAO, but if we get some transient blocking in January or even March, we could luck into something. 2021-22 was mostly like that except for Jan and we had chances. I don't even think there was much blocking that year. If we had had Dec 2022 later on, it also could have produced. Something like 2017-2018 or last year is probably the best case scenario. (I'm using 1981-2010 anomalies in this image on purpose. It's just so hard to get a legitimately cold winter now. Even this September is likely going to end up above normal here.)

First 80 degree day of the year.