31.3 in Fredericksburg. Several degrees colder than forecast. I'm under no illusions that I will get anything out of this, but might be a good sign for the western/northwestern half of this forum.
I think 99 percent of people here would "lock this in" for Christmas Eve, especially with the extended period of winter weather depicted on the 00z GFS (3-6 from "round 1", 1-3 from "round 2")
Is there any chance that the weak coastal low that initially forms trends into a light event? It looks somewhat close right now. Is there not enough cold for that to happen?
I have no idea what's going on, but it looks like it is holding less back in the Pacific Northwest, but it's also further west. Instead of two different lobes, it is one closed off low on the ND/Canada border.
The 12z Euro MIGHT be a slight improvement, but it's so weak and light that I would be surprised to see even a dusting from this if it occurred as modeled.
2009, 2013, 2017 and 2018 all had March events, and they were Nina or Nina-like patterns. Of course, I don't recall anything of note in 2012 (lol), 2011, or 2021, but my impression is that March in a Nina can sometimes be interesting.