Ephesians2

The last few years have just been very paltry everywhere, so there's more random variation with one or two storms versus six or seven. Lower numbers = higher standard deviation. Like in 2011- 2012, Central Virginia got a random storm that dropped 4-8" and ended up with more snow than DC/Baltimore. That was the only snow that winter. If we're moving back into a more favorable climo, we will go back to a more normal regional distribution.

Love your posts. What do you think about the Euro? Seems like an outlier (and to a lesser extent the NAM 3k) in holding to a relatively weak storm that doesn't bring accumulating snow outside of the Smokies and eastern NC? What are the differences between the way the Euro develops the system and the GFS/Canadian/ICON/HRRR? I imagine it's a stronger trough over New England and/or a weaker shortwave?

Lynchburg, VA 12.05.2025 - 3.4" Total 3.4"

Just measured 3 inches exactly. Grass is covered and still have some light snow.

2.2"

OK, that's enough. No more north shifts lol

Big Improvement on the Canadian for Monday

The CMC looks a lot closer for the Monday potential, as in it is not completely out to sea anymore

It seems to have a stronger storm and less positively tilted trough, but also trended way south with the confluence over eastern Canada/New England

Actually looks like the jackpot's going to be in North Carolina with moderate snow into Central VA, which doesn't seem like a terrible situation to be in at this range

CMC noticeably north again. Northern edge of the precip shield in Central VA vs NC last run

CMC made a substantial shift north with the Friday event. It still isn't close enough for anyone on this forum, but it's only about 100 miles away from a hit versus 400 miles

FWIW dropped to 31 degrees here, which although it seems to be partially local/microclimate related, it is lower than forecast. Blacksburg seems to think the cold overperforms as well (most models have all rain) Hope the DC area gets an overperformer! Not much chance down here though

DCA: -1.5 NYC: -1.0 BOS: -1.5 ORD: -2.5 ATL: 0.5 IAH: 1.5 DEN: 2.0 PHX: 4.0 SEA: 3.0

I didn't realize the SOI was positive or neutral in 2023-24 except for in January. What a weird winter.

Oct 2024 had positive EPO: Oct 2023 was negative: Oct 2022 was neutral... Oct 2021 was positive. Oct 2020 looks neutral maybe slightly negative. Oct 2019 had a slightly negative EPO and 2019-20 was very positive. So looking back at the last few years, there isn't a single year where this correlation has actually existed. Maybe 2017-18 but it's weak. I think we can look at these correlations, but even in what you showed the significance seems to be pretty minor. I'm not sure this is a causal relationship at all, and if it is, it's a very, very minor factor.

Well, to be fair, he's right that a warm October doesn't necessarily mean a warm winter in the east. October 2011 was cold, while October 2010, 2013, 2014 were above average. November is more correlated in my understanding.

DCA +4.3 NYC +3.8 BOS +3.5 ORD: +5.4 ATL: +4.0 IAH: +3.6 DEN: +1.0 PHX: +1.3 SEA: -0.5

I could see it being a -EPO / -PNA / southeast ridge kind of winter with a few brief but relatively intense cold shots but overall warmer than last year. I've heard that the North Atlantic anomalies signal a +NAO, but if we get some transient blocking in January or even March, we could luck into something. 2021-22 was mostly like that except for Jan and we had chances. I don't even think there was much blocking that year. If we had had Dec 2022 later on, it also could have produced. Something like 2017-2018 or last year is probably the best case scenario. (I'm using 1981-2010 anomalies in this image on purpose. It's just so hard to get a legitimately cold winter now. Even this September is likely going to end up above normal here.)

First 80 degree day of the year.

B. Ended up with about average snowfall but more than any winter since 2018-2019. Never got a direct hit from any storm - either slightly too far north (Jan 6, Feb 13, two warning level ice events) or too far south (Jan 11, Feb 19-20) but in return, there were 4 or 5 notable snow events and snow cover for most of January.

A lot of Nino years in the analogs... interesting. https://x.com/MikeTFox5/status/1894541347563913353/photo/1

19:1 ratios

2/20/2025 - 1.0" Total: 11.4"