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Ephesians2

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Everything posted by Ephesians2

  1. Ephesians2
    I like the West to East trajectory of this band for Central VA. It's not super heavy - but accumulating nicely. 1.3" in Lynchburg.
  2. Ephesians2
  3. Ephesians2
    Just measured 0.75" in Lynchburg. Steady light/moderate snow with decent size flakes.
  4. Ephesians2
    After a couple hours of virga and flurries, light snow has begun in Lynchburg.
  5. Ephesians2
    Webcams from SW/Southside VA: https://www.wsls.com/weather/skycams/ Snow already accumulating in Martinsville and Blacksburg.
  6. Ephesians2
    Purely anecdotal, but ... my fiancée says it's snowing lightly in Winston-Salem, NC. Was supposed to be all rain for them.
  7. Ephesians2
    Initial wave of precipitation looks heavier and further south than modeled - moving due west to east. From a Roanoke/Lynchburg page:
  8. Ephesians2
  9. Ephesians2
    RNK's map had you starting at 3-5 and me at 5-7. Looks like precip is moving in more quickly than anticipated.
  10. Ephesians2
    37/7 in Lynchburg. Clouds thickening to the West.
  11. Ephesians2
    Huge divergence between NAM and HRRR QPF for Central VA. NAM cut QPF in half versus its last run.
  12. Ephesians2
    RGEM ticks to the south and bumps up QPF - 11.1" at RIC on Kuchera. It's a tight gradient just south of there though.
  13. Ephesians2
    NAM was showing basically nothing 24 hours ago, right? Also, from what I've heard it tends to have a north bias. I think it's an improvement and definitely better than where we thought it be going a couple of days ago. 2-4" with some sleet and ZR will stick around a while with the advertised temperatures. I got 4" with the second Jan 2022 storm, including an inch of sleet, and it stuck around for two weeks with warmer temperatures than what we are seeing on models.
  14. Ephesians2
    Jan 2019 seems the closest, at least that I can think of. https://www.stmweather.com/blog/current-events/winter-storm-january-11-13-2019
  15. Ephesians2
    I was in Fredericksburg for Jan 2022 and got 15". Other than that, the only 10"+ storm I remember clearly is the 2016 blizzard. I have very vague glimpses of the 2009-2010 winter despite being 7 years old then, because I was a weather nerd, my parents got me a 3-year weather observation book for my 7th birthday
  16. Ephesians2
    CMC is a step in the right direction as well. Confluence further south. Snow jackpot and QPF max now over Fredericksburg, not DC. Verbatim, not exactly what we want in Central VA, but it's an improvement - the 6" line is roughly from Charlottesville to Hanover County. I'm liking these trends.
  17. Ephesians2
    GFS went slightly south. Not exactly where we want it - but an appreciable shift.
  18. Ephesians2
    FWIW ... map from local Lynchburg TV meteorologists
  19. Ephesians2
    The GFS does not cave. Going to be virtually identical to 12z. Also significantly drier than other models.
  20. Ephesians2
    On the other hand, the RGEM looks like a *slight* step back, but basically unchanged (mostly sleet/ice with 1-3" in Central VA). It's a DC/NoVA jackpot with the 6" line near Fredericksburg
  21. Ephesians2
    ICON is a significant improvement and gives Richmond area some snow from the Coastal as well.
  22. Ephesians2
    NAM isn't great, but an improvement. It brings some snow into Central VA, but still mostly sleet/ZR. Hoping it's overamplified as I've heard its bias is.
  23. Ephesians2
    Just got a nice squall in Lynchburg - quick coating on grass and car tops. Not in the forecast from NWS or commercial sites.
  24. Ephesians2
    Flurries in Lynchburg.
  25. Ephesians2
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