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Ephesians2

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Everything posted by Ephesians2

  1. Ephesians2
    within striking distance
  2. Ephesians2
    At 90h the northern extent of the snow is EZF compared to Hampton Roads on the 00z run
  3. Ephesians2
    CMC at 84h - a bit west and more negatively tilted compared to 00z still has the two surface lows idea but the one on the coast is stronger compared to 00z and the one offshore is weaker precip shield is slightly NW of 00z
  4. Ephesians2
    Closed low over the TN Valley PNA ridge centered around Boise West based NAO block
  5. Ephesians2
    00z GFS will be at least a hold
  6. Ephesians2
    here is mean QPF and individual members it looks like there are fewer big hits in the individual members compared to 18z but QPF actually ticked up a bit on the mean
  7. Ephesians2
    So at 72h... the RGEM looks even further west with the NS energy than even the GFS/NAM EDIT: it is flatter in front though
  8. Ephesians2
    Yeah at 72h it is definitely east of its last run
  9. Ephesians2
    light snow breaking out in the southern half of the forum on 00z NAM 75h...
  10. Ephesians2
    I think there's a reason why model verification scores are based on 500mb, not surface depictions. That just wouldn't happen IRL.
  11. Ephesians2
    If it actually did play out in the way the GFS advertises, it would seem to me like it would trend north, and the DC/Maryland people would get 18-24" while Richmond to MBY gets 8-12" Just climo.
  12. Ephesians2
    Snow map is basically identical to 12z
  13. Ephesians2
    even more negatively tilted than 12z
  14. Ephesians2
    Yeah it has some BIG hits mixed in...
  15. Ephesians2
    FWIW... the ICON ensemble has a noticeably larger number of lows along the coast compared to 12z. Not sure it follows the op's idea of splitting the energy.
  16. Ephesians2
    the #1 rule of looking at model trends: The trends I like will continue. The trends I don't like are flukes.
  17. Ephesians2
    That's from 12z NAM Not like it matters, but 18z NAM looks east in its fantasy range
  18. Ephesians2
    It is more consolidated which is what we would expect. At this range I think they tend to follow the op
  19. Ephesians2
    Not what we need but it's improved from 06z and 00z.
  20. Ephesians2
    EPS mean a bit west of 12z with the 500mb low at 102h. Looks more amped too.
  21. Ephesians2
    Looking at 108h on the 12z Euro, I see: - surface low 100 miles west of 06z - 996 mb on the 12z, 1004 mb on the 06z Also at 102h, I see a 500mb low that is over 100 miles southwest of 06z, as well as being less positively tilted and better organized. What am I missing? Sure it's not enough, and not as good as the runs from a couple of days ago, but I don't think it's time to throw in the towel yet.
  22. Ephesians2
  23. Ephesians2
    102h- closed off low over east TN Looks like it's about 50 miles east across the board
  24. Ephesians2
    12z CMC at 96h somewhat less amplified and further east
  25. Ephesians2
    One glimmer of hope might be provided by the fact that most of the models have a strong negative NAO and a west-based block for this period. The beach blizzards of 2018 and 2022 were both pacific driven cold patterns with no blocking. Perhaps a block will help capture the shortwave and make it slow down and amplify more instead of being more progressive and sliding offshore. Or maybe it'll suppress it more. I don't know lol
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