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2/22-23 "There's no way..." Storm Part 2


Maestrobjwa
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1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Now perhaps this isn't for this thread oer se, but perhaps still on topic...how do you calculate those ratios? Layman question, lol

I believe the ratio we're using is as follows:

5 hours ago, bncho said:

DIY ratios plz

edit: do your own ratios is the message. example: that shows me at around 10" 10:1. cut that down to 7" for 7:1 ratios and remove 2" for melting and I get 5" from that. simple math

 

 

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6 minutes ago, nj2va said:

LWX’s range map shows how uncertain the forecast is at this point.

image.thumb.png.9b7f4344490a7a292cb13ccb9f021cf4.png

The "Point" map is the official NWS snowfall forecast in inches during the time period shown on the graphic. This snowfall amount is determined by NWS forecasters to be the most likely outcome based on evaluation of data from computer models, satellite, radar, and other observations.

The "Range" map is the 25th percentile (lower number) to 75th percentile (higher number) of possible snowfall amounts based on the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) Super Ensemble output during the time period of the graphic. The official NWS snowfall forecast influences this range of values either up or down depending upon how closely they match.

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1 minute ago, bncho said:

HRRR btw

image.thumb.png.9b93a4e2c8af7bdcc36fbe0d8bd27ae7.png\

also @NVAwx that's only for my backyard, and it's pretty conservative. Please look at soundings, surface temps, and upper air temps and make your own assesment

That’s all before the real show even starts lol.

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1 minute ago, NVAwx said:

The "Point" map is the official NWS snowfall forecast in inches during the time period shown on the graphic. This snowfall amount is determined by NWS forecasters to be the most likely outcome based on evaluation of data from computer models, satellite, radar, and other observations.

The "Range" map is the 25th percentile (lower number) to 75th percentile (higher number) of possible snowfall amounts based on the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) Super Ensemble output during the time period of the graphic. The official NWS snowfall forecast influences this range of values either up or down depending upon how closely they match.

That's good info to know, thank you for explaining the math.  My engineer brain can sleep now.  

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7 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

A lot of that comes down to the initial advance of precip before the coastal takes over. Few of the other models are giving that much of a thought, and from the looks of it the HRRR is actually wetter with that batch than even the GFS.

My hope is that this becomes a Feb 10, 2010 type of a pivot, but from hobbyist experience I will say this is definitely a setup in which you want to temper celebrations until it’s actually snowing. Miller Bs are a mortal enemy for central md. We’re generally not good at them.

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This feels a bit like the Ji storm of 2022. If I remember correctly, it had been on and off radar,  so most had given up. Then 2 or 3 days before, everything started to change. If I remember correctly, the GFS led the way and the Euro caved to it.  I had been away for my anniversary and not paying attention until I saw Jay's post.

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