3/16/26 Severe Weather Event Thread (Moderate Risk) | Latest: 15% TOR, 60% WIND, 5% HAIL

[AlexD1990]

sun coming out under the cloud deck in rehoboth

[SolidIcewx]

Sun peeking through even with rain showers here in southern PG county 

[TSSN+]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Man, you really rooting against this thing.

I mean just stating that the stuff moving in a couple hours isn’t exactly ideal for getting severe. Early storms will limit what we can see. 

[Jake Wx]

643
ACUS11 KWNS 161404
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161403 
MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-161630-

Mesoscale Discussion 0269
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0903 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Areas affected...Central Virginia into Maryland

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 161403Z - 161630Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The severe weather threat will increase through the
morning.

DISCUSSION...Low-level moisture advection and cooling mid-level
temperatures will continue to destabilize Virginia into Maryland
this morning. Limited capping evident on the RNK and IAD 12Z RAOBs
has resulted in scattered warm sector development ahead of the
primary squall line. These messy-mode storms will continue to limit
heating, but may have some severe threat as above mentioned
destabilization continues within a strong wind profile. 

Low-level shear, already strong at 12Z, will continue to strengthen
through the day. Therefore, any stronger/deeper updrafts could have
some tornado threat late this morning into the early afternoon. The
primary threat still appears to be the wind/embedded tornado threat
later this afternoon as the secondary mid-level jet streak ejects
east of the Appalachians and wind fields strengthen rapidly.
However, even this threat is contingent on the evolution of these
morning storms. A tornado watch will likely be needed at some point,
potentially by later this morning if the morning storms start to
show more organization/structure.

..Bentley/Thompson.. 03/16/2026

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

[87storms]

If you love clouds, you will love the current satellite loop: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=ne&band=GEOCOLOR&length=12

[EstorilM]

There’s kinda a separate northern element to that part of the line going into Culpeper, I think that misses most of NoVA to the northwest 

[EstorilM]

SPC just issued a new MD for 60% tornado watch issuance for a lot of us. 
 

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0269.html

[freestater]

[Eskimo Joe]

ASOS out of Andrews went clear skies, and their ceilometer goes up to 25,000 feet. Looks like there definitely is some full breaks in the clouds. 

[TSSN+]

9 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

I mean just stating that the stuff moving in a couple hours isn’t exactly ideal for getting severe. Early storms will limit what we can see. 

Think central Va south will do decent though. dc north not so sure 

[Eskimo Joe]

SVR for Madison now has the TOR: possible tag?

[stormtracker]

13 minutes ago, Jake Wx said:

643
ACUS11 KWNS 161404
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161403 
MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-161630-

Mesoscale Discussion 0269
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0903 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Areas affected...Central Virginia into Maryland

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 161403Z - 161630Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The severe weather threat will increase through the
morning.

DISCUSSION...Low-level moisture advection and cooling mid-level
temperatures will continue to destabilize Virginia into Maryland
this morning. Limited capping evident on the RNK and IAD 12Z RAOBs
has resulted in scattered warm sector development ahead of the
primary squall line. These messy-mode storms will continue to limit
heating, but may have some severe threat as above mentioned
destabilization continues within a strong wind profile. 

Low-level shear, already strong at 12Z, will continue to strengthen
through the day. Therefore, any stronger/deeper updrafts could have
some tornado threat late this morning into the early afternoon. The
primary threat still appears to be the wind/embedded tornado threat
later this afternoon as the secondary mid-level jet streak ejects
east of the Appalachians and wind fields strengthen rapidly.
However, even this threat is contingent on the evolution of these
morning storms. A tornado watch will likely be needed at some point,
potentially by later this morning if the morning storms start to
show more organization/structure.

..Bentley/Thompson.. 03/16/2026

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

Yeah, as long as the experts are excited, I'll remain optimistic 

[wxdude64]

Things are popping down S and SE of Roanoke into NC, currently 3 separate TOR warnings. 

[SnowenOutThere]

Targeting Amelia court house as my chasing destination. 

[aldie 22]

Stephens City about to get clocked, it has done nothing but rain there since i moved out here and not even one thank you from him....yeesh.

[wxdude64]

2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Targeting Amelia court house as my chasing destination. 

Yep, a line from Farmville to Richmond looks good currently. Be safe and have fun!

[hstorm]

Clouds have thickened up again here after some brief breaks around 9:30-ish.  65/63.

[snowfan]

9 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

ASOS out of Andrews went clear skies, and their ceilometer goes up to 25,000 feet. Looks like there definitely is some full breaks in the clouds. 

I can assure you andrews isn't in any clear sky situation right now.

[dailylurker]

Rainy here in the lowlands. Radar has storms around noon. Blah

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Socked in here and hoping we stay that way.  

[weatherCCB]

68/65

[TSSN+]

13z hrrr essentially shows nothing across Maryland today. Little line of normal storms later. 

[Pityflakes]

How much warmer was it supposed to get anyways?  Already in the upper 60s.  Sun would help but seems like CAPE might be sufficient already.  Also, is the first line going to end up being the main event?  Wouldn't be the first time.  

[LeesburgWx]

If that storm holds, Warrenton through Loudoun County look to take it directly on the chin.

[mappy]

Just now, Pityflakes said:

How much warmer was it supposed to get anyways?  Already in the upper 60s.  Sun would help but seems like CAPE might be sufficient already.  Also, is the first line going to end up being the main event?  Wouldn't be the first time.  

Hard to say about later but it was always supposed to be multiple rounds with the worst being later tonight. 

[H2O]

10:30 and we all haven’t died yet. Disappointed 

pretty sure one of the clouds was in the shape of a middle finger as it flew by at about 40mph

[TSSN+]

If we getting severe today feel like it’s mostly coming from this line. Let’s see what it does. 

[DDweatherman]

The experts have been wrong before. I’m not seeing it. I wanted to call TSSN the fail mode asshole he can be, but we’re on the same page here. 

[konksw]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

If we getting severe today feel like it’s mostly coming from this line. Let’s see what it does. 

Seems a bit premature…

[H2O]

4 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

13z hrrr essentially shows nothing across Maryland today. Little line of normal storms later. 

 

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

If we getting severe today feel like it’s mostly coming from this line. Let’s see what it does. 

I'm confused.  So which is it?  A one off HRRR run that shows nothing but a little line later today or this?