Major Hurricane Melissa - 892mb - 185mph

[Windspeed]

Two insane IR loops with lightning data for posterity. New IR and the older AVN. No doubt about it, Melissa's eyewall is absolutely cranking at present.

[Floydbuster]

2 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Two insane IR loops with lightning data for posterity. New IR and the older AVN. No doubt about it, Melissa's eyewall is absolutely cranking at present.

 

I highly doubt this is still 145 mph.

[WxWatcher007]

I finally got to radar and while the eyewall looks tremendous there is also a huge moat starting to appear. 

[Sharknado123]

7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I finally got to radar and while the eyewall looks tremendous there is also a huge moat starting to appear. 

I noticed the HAFS-A in particular has been insistent since 06z in creating this moat before landfall when the hurricane is near peak strength in the 910s. doesn’t weaken the storm at all once the moat forms either. 

[Radtechwxman]

Looks like north turn may be in process of happening now 

[DDweatherman]

Alright, let’s guess what recon finds, anyone?

Pressure/max winds guesses

[Snowlover11]

1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

Alright, let’s guess what recon finds, anyone?

Pressure/max winds guesses

165 920-924 range

[WxSynopsisDavid]

Thinking they find pressure in the 910mb-920mb range. Winds in the 170-180mph range. Strictly based on satellite and infrared imagery, also factoring in ADT estimates. 

[DDweatherman]

I’m thinking 915mb and 170mph, question is where it’ll fall since 170 is not an advisory strength, so 165/175. 

[WxWatcher007]

3 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Alright, let’s guess what recon finds, anyone?

Pressure/max winds guesses

Total guess, 912mb/145kt (165mph)

[WxSynopsisDavid]

Dvorak Technique says “hold my beer”

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

Dvorak Technique says “hold my beer”

Well we’re about to find out lol

[DDweatherman]

2 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

Dvorak Technique says “hold my beer”

Would make it the strongest ATL basin hurricane on record by max winds…

[WxSynopsisDavid]

Um……923mb in the S/SE quad of the eye? Oh boy, this just escalated quickly. Wonder what the NE quad measures.

[WxWatcher007]

923.2mb extrapolated (might not be dead center)

Peak FL of 140kt

Peak SFMR of 148 

SE to NW pass

[WxWatcher007]

2:00 AM EDT Mon Oct 27
Location: 16.3°N 77.7°W
Moving: W at 5 mph
Min pressure: 926 mb
Max sustained: 150 mph

[WxWatcher007]

I’m thinking this is probably a 5, but recon needs more time to confirm. 

[Radtechwxman]

I really thought this was going to be a cat 5 now especially given the satellite estimates and what data they're getting now. So confused. 

[WxWatcher007]

Just now, Radtechwxman said:

I really thought this was going to be a cat 5 now especially given the satellite estimates and what data they're getting now. So confused. 

I don’t think the NHC could pull the trigger on a C5 with that little center data. Recon needs time to confirm imo. 

[Radtechwxman]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I don’t think the NHC could pull the trigger on a C5 with that little center data. Recon needs time to confirm imo. 

Is this the plane that will issue the 5am advisory or will another flight follow this?

[WxSynopsisDavid]

2 minutes ago, Radtechwxman said:

I really thought this was going to be a cat 5 now especially given the satellite estimates and what data they're getting now. So confused. 

Recon just started measuring, give them time. This reading is, again, from the southeast quadrant of the eyewall. The highest winds in a hurricane reside in the northeast quad where the lowest pressure also resides. We are minutes away from finding out what the NE quad measures.

[Radtechwxman]

Just now, WxSynopsisDavid said:

Recon just started measuring, give them time. This reading is, again, from the southeast quadrant of the eyewall. The highest winds in a hurricane reside in the northeast quad where the lowest pressure also resides. We are minutes away from finding out what the NE quad measures.

Definitely eager to see that data and hopefully they get a good pass through the eye

[Coach McGuirk]

Looks like a cat 5 to me. 

[WxWatcher007]

Zero doubt this is a 5 to me. Batch of 143-144 FL and unflagged SFMR of 135, 150, and 159kt.

[hawkeye_wx]

Dropsonde says 924 mb

[Coach McGuirk]

Just now, hawkeye_wx said:

Dropsonde says 924 mb

There you go, Cat-5. 

[WxSynopsisDavid]

Definitely Category 5, just need NE quad sampled to confirm

[WxSynopsisDavid]

[Radtechwxman]

4 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

Not even the strongest quadrant. Absolutely insane

[WxWatcher007]

Keeping in mind the whole SFMR accuracy thing that I discussed last season, but still, very impressive. Would like to see a clean NE—SW pass.