Gravity Wave

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About Gravity Wave

  • Birthday 06/28/1992

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  • Location:
    Chelsea, NYC

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  1. A more west-based version of 2014-15 wouldn't be that bad. The trough that year was too far east and so the Mid Atlantic got fringed repeatedly.
  2. Great coup by the NAM but the failure here by the other models is concerning.
  3. New Euro and UKMET seasonal snowfall outlooks are out. Long story short: December is a disaster, January is below average, and February is great. I don't trust these at all but they fact that both are in broad agreement is somewhat interesting.
  4. That developing system in the Gulf looks like it's going to rob us of our last chance of hitting 80 this year. If you believe the 12z GFS there aren't even any 70s on the horizon.
  5. The NAM is wetter than the HRRR but it seems to better reflect the radar so I'd lean towards it.
  6. Definitely a nowcasting situation. Good thing it's not winter!
  7. Euro is the clear outlier on the rain front, everything else is widespread 1.5-2"+.
  8. Definitely more rain than I expected here. There was a nice gust as I walked into work but the winds have generally been tame.
  9. Man if this was in January we'd be going crazy with these massive shifts inside 100 hours.
  10. It was cruel, and it only got worse when our perfect pattern arrived just in time to ruin the spring.
  11. Loving the cool temps today. As for this winter, I don't envy those who are putting forecasts out. The tangle of factors and the consistent failures of long-range modeling make it dangerously close to a waste of time, imo. If we get to Thanksgiving and the Euro Weeklies are showing a massive ridge for New Years then I might start to get excited for a big winter.
  12. The front has reached POU.
  13. Interesting. My parents in Allentown say they rarely see Stinkbugs anymore, which is noteworthy since the first one of those reported in the US was found there in 1998.
  14. I'm not seeing 90s on the 12z GFS, at least for the metro and points N&W. Saturday, Wednesday and Thursday look like the peak heat days, but even then it's mid 80s, not 90s. Legacy GFS and CMC are the same except they cut the heat off 1 day earlier. Am I missing something?
  15. Looks like it just manages to escape to the east at 216 as the ridge shift/breaks down but obviously the general idea from 0z is still there.