Gravity Wave

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About Gravity Wave

  • Birthday 06/28/1992

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
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  • Location:
    Chelsea, NYC

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  1. Wind just starting to pick up in Midtown.
  2. I agree that surface reflections are generally terrible outside of 150 but I think the models are generally better from a temperature and pattern perspective and still have some value until at least 200 hours.
  3. There were other runs as well. At any rate, you don't want to be getting hits every time at this range, things are going to change.
  4. The GFS has been consistent in showing a big system for then, and the airmass looks a lot better than the one forecast for the 1st.
  5. Sticking to most surfaces here in Chelsea, nice to have a snowfall where everything doesn't start out wet for once.
  6. Already down to 23 at the Park as of 10:00 PM with clear skies.
  7. Hoping for 2" on my wood deck for the first time since the early March storm last year. This is probably the best antecedent airmass for an event since January 4, 2018, at least for the city.
  8. With the exception of January 2018 every storm of any significance in NYC since 2017 has featured either a torched BL or severe mixing issues.
  9. It certainly isn't looking like the month long torch that was advertised last week. If we can get the MJO to avoid any 2019-like shenanigans or collapse back into the COD then we should have plenty of chances at some snow.
  10. People are really starting to talk about the 12/21-23 period for a major snowstorm. The setup mostly looks great but the ridge axis positioning is definitely concerning.
  11. Reading these posts reminds me of how many of the big NYC snowstorms of the past 20 years were non-events or underwhelming in Allentown where I grew up. December 2003: I remember watching the weather channel nonstop leading up to this storm, which ended up busting somewhat for NYC but which only dropped 6" in Allentown. We even changed over to sleet for a while, which wasn't forecasted. February 2006: For whatever reason I have zero memory of this storm. I had never heard of it prior to joining this board. The snowmaps for this storm are inconsistent but it appears that Allentown was just north of the best banding and ended up with 8-10". December 2009: This storm was a much bigger deal in the Mid Atlantic but still ended up being nice for the City (and a big storm on LI). I'll always remember the cutoff in this storm: 20+ inches in Philly and 4 in Allentown. I still have painful memories of watching the heavy snow bands erode as they moved north of the PA turnpike. February 2010 ("Snowicane"): Another storm where neither NYC or Allentown were near the jackpot zone (Upstate NY) but where NYC did far better, with over 20 inches (which is more than I thought). I ended up with 8 or so as the coastal low developed a little too late. Boxing Day: This one was truly painful. Allentown was under a WSW for 12-16" after a late jump west on the models. The western cutoff was always going to be sharp but it looked like far eastern PA was going to be on the right side of it. Then the low bombed out more than expected which tightened the precip shield, and everyone west of NENJ got shafted. I ended up with 2" of pixie dust.
  12. The trough was a little too far east in 2014-15. I remember because I was in Ithaca as it experienced its coldest February in history while SNE was getting repeatedly crushed by storms.