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Gravity Wave

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About Gravity Wave

  • Birthday 06/28/1992

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  • Location:
    Chelsea, NYC

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  1. Looks like it just manages to escape to the east at 216 as the ridge shift/breaks down but obviously the general idea from 0z is still there.
  2. Don't look now but here comes the Euro.
  3. Hard to believe that there wasn't a stretch of that last fall. I guess it was more the extreme dews than 80+ temps.
  4. Yeah that's the weekend I'm talking about. I noticed the GFS last night had a Floyd redux for that Sunday and the 12z is showing a massive cane on a Dorian-like track (for our area, not further south).
  5. Ugh. I'm out of town next weekend with a flight back to LGA Sunday afternoon. Last thing I need is to be trapped in Pittsburgh in the midst of my lateral interviewing.
  6. Gravity Wave

    Category Five Hurricane Dorian

    Getting some rain and wind here in NYC from the outermost rain band.
  7. Yup, there's a train of waves coming from Africa right now and the pattern seems favorable for a coastal track.
  8. Gravity Wave

    Category Five Hurricane Dorian

    I know it's essentially worthless for tropical systems but the NAM did trend west at 0z.
  9. Gravity Wave

    Category Five Hurricane Dorian

    Why bother with SFMR ratings if they're apparently so unreliable? And as far as the panic avoidance rationale, doesn't the NOAA pride itself on being a scientific rather than a political organization? Reality doesn't care about what we think, it just is.
  10. Gravity Wave

    Category Five Hurricane Dorian

    It's a function of how hurricanes work. A large hurricane needs lower pressure to have high winds because a large hurricane with X pressure will have a less extreme pressure gradient than a small hurricane with X pressure. The pressure gradient between the eye and the surrounding airmass is what causes the wind in the first place, as air travels from an area of relatively higher pressure to an area of relatively lower pressure. As the gradient becomes tighter and more extreme as the storm deepens, the wind speeds pick up as the air surrounding the low pressure area moves more and more quickly to the core of the storm. The Coriolis effect (a byproduct of the rotation of the earth on its axis) is what causes the air to spin around the low pressure area rather than just rush directly into it. I'm not a met but this is what I remember from my freshman meteorology class. Feel free to clarify/expand/correct.
  11. Gravity Wave

    Category Five Hurricane Dorian

    Cat 4
  12. Gravity Wave

    Category Five Hurricane Dorian

    Meanwhile Dorian has been getting its act together over the past hour. https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=2&im=60&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=160&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity[0]=1&hidden[0]=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=mesoscale_02&p[0]=band_13&x=981&y=1055.5
  13. Gravity Wave

    Category Five Hurricane Dorian

    So the ICON is its own standalone model then, correct? I've read people saying it's a mean or combination of other models.
  14. Gravity Wave

    Category Five Hurricane Dorian

    One thing to note is that the HMON and HWRF both have a similar intensification pattern in the short term. Quick strengthening today (which it looks like is right on schedule) followed by a steady state for most of Saturday as a 950-955 mb Cat 3. They differ from there. HWRF has slow and steady deepening on Sunday, and then rapid intensification on Monday to a high-end Cat 4 before some slight weakening as it makes its final approach. HMON has rapid deepening on Sunday and continued strengthening on Monday to Cat 5 level, followed by more significant weakening so that it's still at HWRF-level intensity at landfall despite its higher peak.