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Everything posted by Gravity Wave
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Wasn't here for that storm but I've heard a lot of people who were saying that they couldn't believe that CPK amount because they got so much less. I don't actually have any memory of it despite Allentown apparently getting 10-12", but I agree it's nowhere near the level of the all-timers despite its gaudy position on the snowfall list.
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Lack of consistent heavy rates plus the bad boundary layer (and warm pre-storm conditions) killed the storm in Manhattan. Very reminiscent of 3/7/18 where it snowed all day but the deform band ended up over NNJ instead of the City where it was modeled to be and the torched boundary layer never never got the full dynamic cooling effect so we had 33-34 degree white rain. Wound up with a coating of slush in Midtown and little more in Chelsea.
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Coating on cold surfaces here, starting to stick to the Avenues.
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Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.
Gravity Wave replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
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We've pretty much been in a down period since March 2018, with the exception of February 2021 (and maybe January 2022 for eastern areas).
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Growing up in Allentown the neighbors who had been around for a while would talk about February 1983 before 1996 even though the latter ended up as a slightly bigger storm in terms of accumulations (30" vs 25"). I think it was the intensity that made such an impression, 1996 was 36 hours of steady snow while 83 came in like a wall and dropped 5" in an hour at one point.
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November 2019 also had a historic arctic outbreak in mid-month. I forget how much it moderated by Thanksgiving.
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The Feb 5 storm probably wouldn't have been had it been able to make it further north.
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I think we'll take our chances with strong blocking at the risk of some 2/5/10 or 1/13/19 style misses. You'd have to think one storm would get far enough north to slam us.
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Pouring here again. Visibility down to barely half a mile.
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Yup, 4.2" total for the event so far. The models were right (except the super wacky 12/18z HRRR runs from yesterday).
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Starting to wonder if New Jersey might just liquefy and melt away into the Atlantic.
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Insane monsoon conditions half an hour ago in Midtown. Heaviest rain I've seen since Ida and very loud thunder.
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Hurricane still there on the 12z GFS.
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Right now this summer has a shot to be our most pleasant since 2009. The CFS weeklies say the heat will return for the last third of the month so we'll see.
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HRRR says yes, although in a significantly weakened state.
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My only comment on energy policy is that the continued aversion to nuclear power among large swathes of both environmentalists and the population at large is extremely frustrating.
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If this was winter the meltdown here would be absolutely epic.
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Could the high dews forecast for early July prop up overnight lows enough to compensate for BN highs?
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I didn't notice any smell walking home today around 6:00, but I just stepped out onto the balcony and the smoke smell was very apparent. Wild stuff.
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Our peak severe season is half gone and there are no threats on the horizon. I'm not gonna complain about the lack of heat/humidity but it would have been nice to sneak an event in somewhere.
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Late May-mid June has historically been the best severe window for the northern mid-Atlantic, at least for areas away from the immediate coast.
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Along with things being wetter in general in recent years, it seems we're developing a habit of ending what dry spells we still get with huge rain events.
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Yeah, it's pouring here and the radar looks very unimpressive.