Gravity Wave
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Everything posted by Gravity Wave
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I'm sure the ENSO responses will return to normal as soon as we have a winter with a strongly unfavorable ENSO state for Mid Atlantic snow.
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Central PA really isn't a great spot for big snows. They have a longer snow season due to elevation + being inland, but in practice that just means more time to get nuisance nickel and dime events that eventually add up to their modest 30-45 inch averages. They usually need Miller A inland runners to get big storms and those don't come around often. The Poconos are the best spot for snow because they have the elevation while also being far enough east to benefit from more coastal storms. The 2010s were an anomaly with events usually favoring the coast over the interior but I think we're seeing a reversion to the mean now. The problem for Central PA is that they're a bit too interior to benefit from this.
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Mount Pocono is at 1900' in elevation compared to 400' for Allentown. Given that all of our events this year featured marginal temps, it's not surprising there's such a large discrepancy.
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Isn't it a Miller B vs Miller A thing? Big precips field are harder to get with newly redeveloped lows vs older ones that come up from the South and have been pulling in Gulf moisture.
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Hopefully we can keep getting improvements from the PNA, we could all use this storm after all the misery this winter.
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The 17th-18th threat is still there on the models. The Euro/EPS are the least enthused about it but they have been trending in a positive direction.
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If 2018 taught me anything it's that you're not getting meaningful accumulating snow in the City during daytime in March with marginal surface temps. Need that wave on the 17-18th to work out to get anything significant here out of this pattern, since that may have a better antecedent airmass.
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Very noteworthy signal on the EPS for next weekend:
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The 18z NAM run that freaked everyone out had the City at 36+ degrees at 8:00 and above 35 for the whole storm. Seems like that'll bust high.
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A little sleet mixing in now, we'll see if that continues when precip rates pick up again.
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Light snow in Turtle Bay.
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The Signal on the EPS for the 10th is really strong considering the range. The number of sub-980 lows showing up (several 950s and a 948 even!) is especially remarkable.
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EPS has a 50/50 shot of Central Park getting 3" on Tuesday. What's the exact amount needed to avoid the futility record?
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GEPS and GEFS are both improved at 12Z for next weekend's storm, significantly so for the GEPS.
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It was seen as 2nd to the Euro by most for a long time, and the Canadian was hardly discussed. Times change!
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The struggle to reach 70 today just makes the 80 from February 2018 even more impressive. Easily the most incredible temperature event I've personally experienced.
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As far as I'm concerned there's little downside to a Nino. Either it's a weak or moderate Nino and we have a favorable ENSO state for next winter (finally) or it's a strong Nino and we have a chance of disrupting the stuck patterns that took hold after the 2015-16 super Nino (most of which have been unfavorable to us). Plus, as has been noted, strong Ninos offer a chance of an HECS amidst an otherwise bad winter.
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IIRC NYC seemed to be in the prime spot for February 1, 2021 several days out, the models mostly all had the heaviest snow along an NYC-ABE-MDT axis inside 100 hours. Unfortunately the storm tucked a little more than expected and the heaviest snow ended up west of the City. Still was only 2" away from being an HECS so it definitely counts as a hit.
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I think it was more of an HECS for the southern Mid Atlantic, the Jersey shore and Cape Cod than NYC. DC had 20 inches and Cape May had 34!
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You'd expect DC and Baltimore to warm by about as much though. This seems to be a continuation of the recent theme of the biggest warm departures being north of us, just in the winter rather than the summer.
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Forget the exact temps, if you told me we'd only be running 0.1 degree colder than Baltimore for the winter I could've pretty much guaranteed a bad winter.
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That's because they also got hit hard by the February 10 storm, which seems to be largely forgotten today despite being the most impressive event I've ever personally experienced (too young to remember 1996 and was in upstate NY for 2016). We got 18" of snow (after compaction, which was likely significant because the temp was 32 degrees for the whole storm) IMBY in Allentown in about 5 hours. It saved the winter for me since we got skunked by 12/19, 2/6 and Snowicane that year. I still wonder what would have happened if we'd had a better airmass for that storm or if it hadn't been in such a hurry to leave.
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Would be great if the Nino could break some of the stuck patterns of the last 6-7 years (endless SE ridge, NW Atlantic warm pool, eastern Pacific cold pool).
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Looks like a potential chance at D10, which corresponds with a trough swinging through the east that the ensembles are now showing.
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RGEM and CMC have a warm/amped bias. If they're the only models showing an event as all rain, you shouldn't be too worried.
