Gravity Wave
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Everything posted by Gravity Wave
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The struggle to reach 70 today just makes the 80 from February 2018 even more impressive. Easily the most incredible temperature event I've personally experienced.
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As far as I'm concerned there's little downside to a Nino. Either it's a weak or moderate Nino and we have a favorable ENSO state for next winter (finally) or it's a strong Nino and we have a chance of disrupting the stuck patterns that took hold after the 2015-16 super Nino (most of which have been unfavorable to us). Plus, as has been noted, strong Ninos offer a chance of an HECS amidst an otherwise bad winter.
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IIRC NYC seemed to be in the prime spot for February 1, 2021 several days out, the models mostly all had the heaviest snow along an NYC-ABE-MDT axis inside 100 hours. Unfortunately the storm tucked a little more than expected and the heaviest snow ended up west of the City. Still was only 2" away from being an HECS so it definitely counts as a hit.
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I think it was more of an HECS for the southern Mid Atlantic, the Jersey shore and Cape Cod than NYC. DC had 20 inches and Cape May had 34!
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You'd expect DC and Baltimore to warm by about as much though. This seems to be a continuation of the recent theme of the biggest warm departures being north of us, just in the winter rather than the summer.
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Forget the exact temps, if you told me we'd only be running 0.1 degree colder than Baltimore for the winter I could've pretty much guaranteed a bad winter.
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That's because they also got hit hard by the February 10 storm, which seems to be largely forgotten today despite being the most impressive event I've ever personally experienced (too young to remember 1996 and was in upstate NY for 2016). We got 18" of snow (after compaction, which was likely significant because the temp was 32 degrees for the whole storm) IMBY in Allentown in about 5 hours. It saved the winter for me since we got skunked by 12/19, 2/6 and Snowicane that year. I still wonder what would have happened if we'd had a better airmass for that storm or if it hadn't been in such a hurry to leave.
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Would be great if the Nino could break some of the stuck patterns of the last 6-7 years (endless SE ridge, NW Atlantic warm pool, eastern Pacific cold pool).
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Looks like a potential chance at D10, which corresponds with a trough swinging through the east that the ensembles are now showing.
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RGEM and CMC have a warm/amped bias. If they're the only models showing an event as all rain, you shouldn't be too worried.
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Loud thunder in Manhattan, and now heavy rain.
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There is a coastal signal for the 31st on the 12z GEFS, although it appears to be too warm for the coast. This is the next threat after the 25th-26th, and possibly the only one that will occur during our brief "improved" pattern.
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The 25th/26th threat is very close for the coast according to the Euro. Every small shift south with the 1st storm, even if it's going to be a rainer for NYC, will help our cause for the second one.
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Euro has a bomb at D9, looks good for the coast. Could this be our season saver?
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I don't think that's really true anymore. What I will say is that the 18z and 06z GFS use the same data as the 12z and 00z runs, respectively, so they are a little less interesting for that reason.
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There's definitely less heartbreak like this, but in a way it's almost more psychically damaging. At least in a near miss situation you can tell yourself that you just need one or two more things to work out the next time, in the pattern we've had there isn't even room for any wishful thinking.
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I don't think we've had a single meaningful threat survive to the D7 mark (168 hours) this year. The Christmas bomb was clearly cutting by that point and today's threat was a goner after a few interesting runs last week.
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Back when the Euro was the undisputed King, people called it Dr. No because it would almost always shoot down whatever fantasies the GFS, NAM and Canadian would spit out, and all but the biggest weenies would take it to the bank. But on the rare occasions when it did show something big inside 5 or 6 days, you knew it was time to get excited. All of that died after January 2015 of course, and since then no model has come close to getting that level of respect (at least for forecasting east coast winter storms).
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Actually we haven't even had much fantasy eye candy this year, which contrasts with our other recent bad winters where we've frequently been teased.
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The late January pattern change doesn't appear to be getting pushed back yet on the models. Does anyone think that the relatively Nino-like attributes of the current pattern make a typical (i.e. bad) Nina February less likely?
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In Pittsburgh for Christmas, really crazy conditions out here. -5 in the middle of the afternoon with 50 mph gusts, absolutely wild and incredibly cold. Near whiteout-conditions on the turnpike from blowing snow, and that was from just a few inches of accumulation. Some stations in the northern part of the state hit blizzard conditions.
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Don't look now but the ICON is taking a significant step towards the GFS with its handling of the shortwave through 75...
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NYC proper got 6-8" from a storm in mid-December 2020.
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12z CMC has the pre-Christmas threat.
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Things are definitely heading back in our direction after yesterday's scare. Given how this has developed so far I'm expecting more curveballs.
