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Gravity Wave

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Everything posted by Gravity Wave

  1. Gravity Wave
    All the best severe events growing up in PA happened on slight risk days, Mod risks almost invariably disappointed. The only exception was the high risk on May 31, 1998.
  2. Gravity Wave
    Memorial Day usually manages to have good weather, even in years with bad springs (like most recent years).
  3. Gravity Wave
    I'm fine with the cool weather but the lack of any thunderstorm activity is annoying given that May into early June is generally our best shot at severe weather around here. I'd gladly take a transient hot day if it came with an interesting severe outbreak.
  4. Gravity Wave
    Lapse rates are usually the missing ingredient for big severe outbreaks in this region, I remember the October 2018 PA tornado outbreak where they played a key role. If it hadn't been for the low instability (it was October after all) it would have been a memorable event. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornadoes_of_2018#October_2
  5. Gravity Wave
    No sleet on the UES, just a few pings of graupel 15 minutes ago.
  6. Gravity Wave
    Is the 700 mb low forming as quickly as it was expected to? The mesoanalysis site doesn't seem to show an organized low at that level yet.
  7. Gravity Wave
    Getting heavier, that band over Queens should be here soon.
  8. Gravity Wave
    HRRR has been flipping and flopping and its thermals are trash. I've honestly never been impressed with it, it'll sniff out a nut every once in a while but its performance is generally underwhelming.
  9. Gravity Wave
    Moderate snow on UES Manhattan, hoping those bands to the south drift north soon.
  10. Gravity Wave
    Yes, although I might push the start of that range up to 8:00 given the HRRR depiction. You'll at least want to be checking the radar by then so you can see when the heavy banding will be arriving.
  11. Gravity Wave
    At this point I don't think we're looking at 1 band that's just going to sit over an area, there's going to be a series of heavy bands rotating in and moving north. The largest looks like it'll come through in midafternoon.
  12. Gravity Wave
    Ignore the Ptype depiction on the HRRR. I checked some soundings and it's all snow through the end of the run (5:00 PM) for everyone Nassau and west.
  13. Gravity Wave
    4Z HRRR has 2" of liquid equivalent in the city by 5:00 PM tomorrow.
  14. Gravity Wave
    HRRR didn't have anyone in the City reaching the 3" mark until about 2:30 this morning. No question this is overperforming so far.
  15. Gravity Wave
    Last update was 11:51, which was 5 minutes before I went outside.
  16. Gravity Wave
    2" on the UES with moderate snow and really nice flake size. Looks like the radar is filling in in CNJ, should provide a great base for the CCB to do its damage tomorrow. Another thing to note: KNYC has reported a total liquid equivalent of .11" since the snow started, and I assume that they have the same accumulations I do (the castle is about a mile to my NW). This would indicate excellent ratios, which isn't a surprise given it's only 22 degrees here at the moment.
  17. Gravity Wave
    I grew up in Allentown and know the pain of barely missing out on huge snowstorms; we got fringed a ton when I lived there (Jan 2005, Feb 2006, Dec 2009, Feb 5-6 and Snowicane, 2010). Glad to see the NAM improving for everyone out there, good luck!
  18. Gravity Wave
    Yes, but I'm not putting much stock in hour 18 of the HRRR.
  19. Gravity Wave
    Latest HRRR has the city (minus SI) reaching an inch of snow around 11:00 PM. Looks as though we should beat that.
  20. Gravity Wave
    Finally steady snow on the UES.
  21. Gravity Wave
    Light snow on the UES.
  22. Gravity Wave
    15" for NYC on the new GEFS, and that with three 6" whiffs mixed in.
  23. Gravity Wave
    Growing up in Allentown the old timers would always talk about that storm before 96 and 93, even though 96 ended up dropping a few more inches.
  24. Gravity Wave
    NAM is east of the other models with the low, good news for NYC and LI.
  25. Gravity Wave
    That makes sense for LI but it seems like the city proper should be able to stay snow under the CCB with any change over occurring as precip lightens and the dry slot approaches.
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