Growing up I always thought hurricane landfalls in LI/New England were extremely rare, but history indicates it's more like we're just in an extended drought. The WAR being too overpowering for storms to make landfall north of NC makes some intuitive sense, but we've still seen plenty of classic OTS recurves over the years. I think the more likely explanation is we've just been lucky, and as with all weather luck it's guaranteed to run out sooner or later.