Gravity Wave

The entire coast from Cape Hatteras to Cape Cod is overdue for an impactful Hurricane strike (I don't really count Sandy, and definitely don't count Irene). Another stretch like 1938-1955 would be ugly.

A couple nasty looking cells there.

Here we go.

Looks like some action ahead of the main line in SEPA. What could become our MCS is still west of Harrisburg.

The severe indices being forecasted for later in PA are actually quite impressive by this region's standards. 3000 CAPE, -9 LI and EHI 6+ in some places. Lapse rates less noteworthy but still decent.

Still time for those trailing storm currently over SEPA to turn into something but it looks like the rule that our best severe events happen during Slight risks is going to hold.

That's the site I use, here's the link for the Fort Dix radar: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?parms=DIX-N0Q-0-6-100-usa-rad

Pop-up thundershower in Manhattan just now.

Day 2 Enhanced!

I remember tracking storms growing up in eastern PA and dealing with a lack of good radar data once they crossed the Susquehanna until they were almost on top of us in the Lehigh Valley, especially if they were approaching from the NW. It's an underrated radar hole, especially when you consider that the areas impacted are quite populated and growing rapidly.

Yeah you got a little more banding than we did overnight. The final gradient between NENJ/the LHV and eastern Queens/Nassau is going to be dramatic.

Yes, the park has 0.86 LE as of 1:00 so probably 10" there, I'd say we have 8-9" on the East side (due to losing more from melt at the start of the storm). I can't imagine other parts of the city having much less than that.

Approaching an inch here, side streets starting to get covered. Snow has gotten appreciably heavier recently, looks like the frontogenesis and banding is getting a little further west than expected.

A month of great blocking and we couldn't buy a drop of precip. Now the storm train is rolling and there's an express track from NC out into the Atlantic.

Low gets closed off east of the Delmarva Saturday morning. WOW.

We have 24-36 hours worth of runs to get that deform band 30 miles west.

Hopefully we can get the CMC and UKMET to bite tonight, that would make the GFS a massive outlier.

I wonder how much further west we could get this to go. Even small shifts cause huge changes in snow totals.

The position of the 700 mb low is perfect for NYC on the NAM.

Wow NAM looks great, even if it's at the end of its range.

Yeah the Euro was known by many as Dr. No back in those days, as it had a habit of destroying hopes that had been raised by big solutions that the NAM, GFS and CMC would spit out. Lots of memories of late nights when the other models showed big hits followed by 90 minutes of unbearable tension as everyone waited for the Euro and finally predictable disappointment when it showed a fish storm or a strung-out mess. Few people would ever really get excited about any potential until the Euro was fully onboard, and on the rare occasions when it would agree on a big event it was usually still more stingy in terms of QPF than the others. The numbers it was spitting out for the 2015 storm were shocking and it's a sign of how highly regarded the Euro was at the time that pro mets followed it so confidently when there were some red flags (like the CMC/RGEM being eastern outliers when they were normally the west/amped outliers).

I think March 2001 is the bigger bust because if busted for more people (including in SNE where they still got hit but missed out on the gaudy projected totals and blizzard conditions due to a sloppy phase) whereas January 2015 was only really a bust for NYC, most of NJ and the LHV. That being said, 8-10 inches when the NWS was forecasting 24-36 is still a massive failure by any definition.

The fact that the Euro didn't even gesture towards a more eastern solution is comforting. Now we need to get the GFS and CMC back on board tomorrow.

I was in the one-inch snowhole for that storm (Allentown). WSW for 10-16 turned into a coating of pixie dust. A truly awful memory, and reading the reports in this forum of what was happening 50 miles to my east made everything ten times worse.

The Euro control just spat out 2 feet for most of the subforum.