Gravity Wave
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Everything posted by Gravity Wave
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It's a million times better than the subtropical garbage we're going to get in July and August.
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It definitely feels that way. What's interesting is that most of these stronger recent tornadoes didn't come as part of major severe outbreaks; they were on days where there weren't widespread severe storms. It would be interesting to see what happens if we could get a more large-scale event in the area.
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There was plenty of cold in the West.
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We dry.
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Everyone was saying how tired they were of cool springs, well here you go!
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I'd settle for anything below 65, that used to be possible during the summer.
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That 1985 outbreak is one of the most anomalous weather events in US history based on the number and proportion of violent tornadoes versus where it occurred. I've always wondered if something like that could happen 150 miles east of where it did; the recent uptick in severe weather makes me suspect that it might be possible, if only as a once in 500-year event (I'm referring to a major outbreak of violent tornadoes here, not a singular freak tornado like the Worcester and Windsor Locks events).
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Given how historically awful the PNA was this year I think it's too early to draw conclusions that we need a favorable Pacific to get any snow. Every trough dug down to Baja and then got stuck indefinitely, it was completely absurd.
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2009 is my favorite summer of all time lol.
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Bright and sunny in Manhattan, clouds finally broke here about half an hour ago.
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I'm sure the ENSO responses will return to normal as soon as we have a winter with a strongly unfavorable ENSO state for Mid Atlantic snow.
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Central PA really isn't a great spot for big snows. They have a longer snow season due to elevation + being inland, but in practice that just means more time to get nuisance nickel and dime events that eventually add up to their modest 30-45 inch averages. They usually need Miller A inland runners to get big storms and those don't come around often. The Poconos are the best spot for snow because they have the elevation while also being far enough east to benefit from more coastal storms. The 2010s were an anomaly with events usually favoring the coast over the interior but I think we're seeing a reversion to the mean now. The problem for Central PA is that they're a bit too interior to benefit from this.
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Mount Pocono is at 1900' in elevation compared to 400' for Allentown. Given that all of our events this year featured marginal temps, it's not surprising there's such a large discrepancy.
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Isn't it a Miller B vs Miller A thing? Big precips field are harder to get with newly redeveloped lows vs older ones that come up from the South and have been pulling in Gulf moisture.
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Hopefully we can keep getting improvements from the PNA, we could all use this storm after all the misery this winter.
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The 17th-18th threat is still there on the models. The Euro/EPS are the least enthused about it but they have been trending in a positive direction.
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If 2018 taught me anything it's that you're not getting meaningful accumulating snow in the City during daytime in March with marginal surface temps. Need that wave on the 17-18th to work out to get anything significant here out of this pattern, since that may have a better antecedent airmass.
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Very noteworthy signal on the EPS for next weekend:
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The 18z NAM run that freaked everyone out had the City at 36+ degrees at 8:00 and above 35 for the whole storm. Seems like that'll bust high.
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A little sleet mixing in now, we'll see if that continues when precip rates pick up again.
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Light snow in Turtle Bay.
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The Signal on the EPS for the 10th is really strong considering the range. The number of sub-980 lows showing up (several 950s and a 948 even!) is especially remarkable.
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EPS has a 50/50 shot of Central Park getting 3" on Tuesday. What's the exact amount needed to avoid the futility record?
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GEPS and GEFS are both improved at 12Z for next weekend's storm, significantly so for the GEPS.
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It was seen as 2nd to the Euro by most for a long time, and the Canadian was hardly discussed. Times change!
