Gravity Wave

Pea sized hail here.

Couple rumbles of thunder here and some rain beginning to fall (moved to the UES).

Back in the old days of the 3-tier severe system our best days always seemed to come with slight risks while moderate risks usually disappointed. So far I'm struggling to remember an enhanced day that lived up to its billing around here either.

https://psl.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst.shtml These negative SST anomalies will likely grow through the first half of May, might put a damper on any early season heat.

No 70s in Newark in April after a historically warm winter is honestly one of the most shocking temp statistics I can remember for this area, and that's saying a lot.

Had 2 decent lines of storms move through earlier (I'm back in the Lehigh Valley atm). Pretty impressive winds continuing here now even as the sky is clearing.

While we're all trapped inside, and with the weather looking boring for the foreseeable future, I figured I would post this survey. Basically, it's a list of hypothetical weather events that you're going to rank in order from the one you'd most want to experience to the one you definitely don't want to experience. Here's the list of 15 events to rank, in no particular order. An EF-2 tornado (wouldn't directly damage your property, but would pass nearby so that you could clearly see it) Golfball/Hen egg-sized hail (1.75-2") A severe thunderstorm (funnel cloud, 70 mph winds, quarter sized hail) A Derecho (similar in intensity to the 1998 labor day derecho) A 12" snowstorm with blizzard conditions (basically a 1/4/18 rerun with slightly higher totals) A 20" snowstorm but without any wind and with marginal temps (basically a 2/10/10 rerun) A gravity wave that drops 4" of snow in an hour with a complete whiteout for the entire period. An ice storm with 4" of sleet and 1/2" of freezing rain A dry heat wave with three days of temps between 100 and 105 and low humidity and dews. A humid heat wave with three days of temps between 95 and 100 and 70-75 degree dews. A cold snap with three days of sub-zero lows and highs around 10 degrees, plus a light breeze at times. A category 2 hurricane landfall in NJ/LI that then tracks over your house (not an extratropical storm like Sandy). A powerful nor'easter similar to the Ash Wednesday storm of 1962, no snow (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ash_Wednesday_Storm_of_1962) A historic river flooding event with perhaps 2-3 significant rainstorms or one major tropical remnant (like Lee in 2011) A flash flooding event with 6 inches of rain in 8 hours Here is my ranking: 1) 20" Snowstorm 2) Derecho 3) 12" Snowstorm 4) Hurricane 5) Gravity Wave 6) Severe Thunderstorm 7) Ice Storm 8) Flash Flooding Event 9) Nor'easter 10) Tornado 11) Cold Snap 12) River Flooding Event 13) Large hail 14) Dry heat wave 15) Humid heat wave

Don't look now but it looks like we're getting our -AO and big time blocking just in time to ruin spring.

Great winters in that stretch but some of those summers were absolutely awful. Although Dewsaster 2018 can compete with any of those. As for Floyd, that was the second weather event I remember from growing up after the 1998 Labor Day derecho. The small lake next to my elementary school tripled in size and merged with a nearby creek to force the only rain-induced early dismissal of my school career.

The dew point numbers from Wisconsin during that heat wave were just disgusting. I would prefer to have a summer of 2009 rerun.

The GEFS (which is still run off the old GFS core) does actually give a little support.

lol

The way this winter has gone with all the day 8-10 threats that fell apart a surprise March snowstorm that only started showing up 5-6 days out actually makes sense.

Wind just starting to pick up in Midtown.

I agree that surface reflections are generally terrible outside of 150 but I think the models are generally better from a temperature and pattern perspective and still have some value until at least 200 hours.

There were other runs as well. At any rate, you don't want to be getting hits every time at this range, things are going to change.

The GFS has been consistent in showing a big system for then, and the airmass looks a lot better than the one forecast for the 1st.

With the exception of January 2018 every storm of any significance in NYC since 2017 has featured either a torched BL or severe mixing issues.

It certainly isn't looking like the month long torch that was advertised last week. If we can get the MJO to avoid any 2019-like shenanigans or collapse back into the COD then we should have plenty of chances at some snow.

Reading these posts reminds me of how many of the big NYC snowstorms of the past 20 years were non-events or underwhelming in Allentown where I grew up. December 2003: I remember watching the weather channel nonstop leading up to this storm, which ended up busting somewhat for NYC but which only dropped 6" in Allentown. We even changed over to sleet for a while, which wasn't forecasted. http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2004/05-Dec-03.html February 2006: For whatever reason I have zero memory of this storm. I had never heard of it prior to joining this board. The snowmaps for this storm are inconsistent but it appears that Allentown was just north of the best banding and ended up with 8-10". http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2006/12-Feb-06.html December 2009: This storm was a much bigger deal in the Mid Atlantic but still ended up being nice for the City (and a big storm on LI). I'll always remember the cutoff in this storm: 20+ inches in Philly and 4 in Allentown. I still have painful memories of watching the heavy snow bands erode as they moved north of the PA turnpike. http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2010/19-Dec-09.html February 2010 ("Snowicane"): Another storm where neither NYC or Allentown were near the jackpot zone (Upstate NY) but where NYC did far better, with over 20 inches (which is more than I thought). I ended up with 8 or so as the coastal low developed a little too late. http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2010/25-Feb-10.html Boxing Day: This one was truly painful. Allentown was under a WSW for 12-16" after a late jump west on the models. The western cutoff was always going to be sharp but it looked like far eastern PA was going to be on the right side of it. Then the low bombed out more than expected which tightened the precip shield, and everyone west of NENJ got shafted. I ended up with 2" of pixie dust. http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2011/26-Dec-10.html

I remember that. I was mostly hanging out in the Upstate NY forum then since I was in Ithaca but I lurked here when it looked like this would become an HECS. I remember a 0z NAM run 36 hours out or so that gave most of NNJ and the LHV 40"+. Easily the worst bust I've seen since I didn't follow the weather closely in March 2001 (although I do remember watching Local on the 8's and having my totals in Allentown slashed throughout that Sunday before the storm). The worst bust I ever experienced personally was January 2014 in Ithaca. It was a rare major snyoptic storm in upstate NY, and the Finger Lakes were, for once, the jackpot zone in all of the models. 16-20", and from how the storm was overperforming in the midwest it seemed like 2 feet was within reach. Every model was on board the night before, with the exception of the old RAP (I think) which had the heaviest snow sliding south, although it was still giving me 8-10". I went to bed expecting to wake up to heavy snow and no classes. When I woke up I heard a car passing on the road outside, and it sounded like it was driving through slush rather than compacted snow as you would expect in a big storm. Sure enough, when I looked outside we had 2 inches of pixie dust and a slushy coating on all the roads, with light snow falling. As it turned out, the RAP was right about the track, and a deathband had set up over an Oneonta-Binghamton-Elmira axis that ended up dropping 24-30" along most of the I-88 corridor. The subsidence from that band killed us and Ithaca ended up with 6", which was pretty much the lowest amount anyone in Upstate got from that storm (areas to the west cashed in more since the deathband hadn't set up yet and there was less subsidence, and areas to the north got lake enhancement and were north of the worst subsidence). Probably my worst weather memory.