Gravity Wave

The GFS has been consistent in showing a big system for then, and the airmass looks a lot better than the one forecast for the 1st.

Sticking to most surfaces here in Chelsea, nice to have a snowfall where everything doesn't start out wet for once.

Already down to 23 at the Park as of 10:00 PM with clear skies.

Hoping for 2" on my wood deck for the first time since the early March storm last year. This is probably the best antecedent airmass for an event since January 4, 2018, at least for the city.

With the exception of January 2018 every storm of any significance in NYC since 2017 has featured either a torched BL or severe mixing issues.

It certainly isn't looking like the month long torch that was advertised last week. If we can get the MJO to avoid any 2019-like shenanigans or collapse back into the COD then we should have plenty of chances at some snow.

People are really starting to talk about the 12/21-23 period for a major snowstorm. The setup mostly looks great but the ridge axis positioning is definitely concerning.

Reading these posts reminds me of how many of the big NYC snowstorms of the past 20 years were non-events or underwhelming in Allentown where I grew up. December 2003: I remember watching the weather channel nonstop leading up to this storm, which ended up busting somewhat for NYC but which only dropped 6" in Allentown. We even changed over to sleet for a while, which wasn't forecasted. http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2004/05-Dec-03.html February 2006: For whatever reason I have zero memory of this storm. I had never heard of it prior to joining this board. The snowmaps for this storm are inconsistent but it appears that Allentown was just north of the best banding and ended up with 8-10". http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2006/12-Feb-06.html December 2009: This storm was a much bigger deal in the Mid Atlantic but still ended up being nice for the City (and a big storm on LI). I'll always remember the cutoff in this storm: 20+ inches in Philly and 4 in Allentown. I still have painful memories of watching the heavy snow bands erode as they moved north of the PA turnpike. http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2010/19-Dec-09.html February 2010 ("Snowicane"): Another storm where neither NYC or Allentown were near the jackpot zone (Upstate NY) but where NYC did far better, with over 20 inches (which is more than I thought). I ended up with 8 or so as the coastal low developed a little too late. http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2010/25-Feb-10.html Boxing Day: This one was truly painful. Allentown was under a WSW for 12-16" after a late jump west on the models. The western cutoff was always going to be sharp but it looked like far eastern PA was going to be on the right side of it. Then the low bombed out more than expected which tightened the precip shield, and everyone west of NENJ got shafted. I ended up with 2" of pixie dust. http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2011/26-Dec-10.html

The trough was a little too far east in 2014-15. I remember because I was in Ithaca as it experienced its coldest February in history while SNE was getting repeatedly crushed by storms.

Looks like precip is filling back in over the city.

Starting a storm in NYC with temps at 34 or higher is a kiss of death 9 times out of 10.

In the end the heaviest banding did set up over the city, it was just that it was much weaker than anyone expected and wasted on the UHI during the middle of the day (with the exception of NENJ).

Even if the banding and accumulation doesn't improve around sunset, the real losers of this storm are EPA (widespread 4-8 and 6-10 calls which turned into virtually nothing). Even CNY fell a little short of expectations with a widespread 8-12 rather than the 10-16 which had been forecasted. SNE is at risk of a pretty significant bust as well.

It's sticking on roofs and open ground where I am just east of Times Square.

The dirt at the construction site across the street from me is starting to whiten. Flake size is looking good.

Wow at that convection off the coast.

Yup, really picking up now.

Yup, snow has started here as well. Radar is really filling in now.

Light drizzle in Midtown, should see it flip when the rates pick up.

Very encouraging trends for the area tonight. I'm still going to be surprised if the city gets past the 6" mark but it's very possible if that banding parks overhead.

Mostly snow now with a little sleet mixed in in Chelsea.

Sleet/rain mix in Chelsea. Might be transitioning more to the sleet side as I write this.

The marginal temps (and lack of a truly cold antecedent airmass) are keeping me from being optimistic about this storm in the city. Unless the CCB parks overhead like the NAM showed we're going to struggle to get more than a slushy coating anywhere. Even in the NAM scenario we'll lose quite a bit of QPF to melting on contact. 6" is the absolute ceiling for the city IMO (not including the park where melt is less of an issue).