Gravity Wave

I think the all time record low temp for the lower 48 in October was set at Peter Sinks, Utah yesterday (-35!!!), breaking the record from 1917. It might get broken again tomorrow morning too.

Ignoring the low skill areas, this would imply that the CFS sees a +PNA, correct? Or do the higher anomalies in Alaska indicate that the ridge will be too far west?

The stalled patterns this decade are really something. Imagine if the next stuck pattern is a Midwest trough to go with our WAR.

A more west-based version of 2014-15 wouldn't be that bad. The trough that year was too far east and so the Mid Atlantic got fringed repeatedly.

Great coup by the NAM but the failure here by the other models is concerning.

New Euro and UKMET seasonal snowfall outlooks are out. Long story short: December is a disaster, January is below average, and February is great. I don't trust these at all but they fact that both are in broad agreement is somewhat interesting. https://www.bennollweather.com/ukmet https://bennollweather.com/ecmwf

That developing system in the Gulf looks like it's going to rob us of our last chance of hitting 80 this year. If you believe the 12z GFS there aren't even any 70s on the horizon.

The NAM is wetter than the HRRR but it seems to better reflect the radar so I'd lean towards it.

Definitely a nowcasting situation. Good thing it's not winter!

Euro is the clear outlier on the rain front, everything else is widespread 1.5-2"+.

Definitely more rain than I expected here. There was a nice gust as I walked into work but the winds have generally been tame.

Man if this was in January we'd be going crazy with these massive shifts inside 100 hours.

It was cruel, and it only got worse when our perfect pattern arrived just in time to ruin the spring.

Loving the cool temps today. As for this winter, I don't envy those who are putting forecasts out. The tangle of factors and the consistent failures of long-range modeling make it dangerously close to a waste of time, imo. If we get to Thanksgiving and the Euro Weeklies are showing a massive ridge for New Years then I might start to get excited for a big winter.

The front has reached POU. https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KPOU.html

Interesting. My parents in Allentown say they rarely see Stinkbugs anymore, which is noteworthy since the first one of those reported in the US was found there in 1998.

I'm not seeing 90s on the 12z GFS, at least for the metro and points N&W. Saturday, Wednesday and Thursday look like the peak heat days, but even then it's mid 80s, not 90s. Legacy GFS and CMC are the same except they cut the heat off 1 day earlier. Am I missing something?

Looks like it just manages to escape to the east at 216 as the ridge shift/breaks down but obviously the general idea from 0z is still there.

Don't look now but here comes the Euro.

Hard to believe that there wasn't a stretch of that last fall. I guess it was more the extreme dews than 80+ temps.

Yeah that's the weekend I'm talking about. I noticed the GFS last night had a Floyd redux for that Sunday and the 12z is showing a massive cane on a Dorian-like track (for our area, not further south).

Ugh. I'm out of town next weekend with a flight back to LGA Sunday afternoon. Last thing I need is to be trapped in Pittsburgh in the midst of my lateral interviewing.

Yup, there's a train of waves coming from Africa right now and the pattern seems favorable for a coastal track.

Fun weekend coming up?

I remember that. I was mostly hanging out in the Upstate NY forum then since I was in Ithaca but I lurked here when it looked like this would become an HECS. I remember a 0z NAM run 36 hours out or so that gave most of NNJ and the LHV 40"+. Easily the worst bust I've seen since I didn't follow the weather closely in March 2001 (although I do remember watching Local on the 8's and having my totals in Allentown slashed throughout that Sunday before the storm). The worst bust I ever experienced personally was January 2014 in Ithaca. It was a rare major snyoptic storm in upstate NY, and the Finger Lakes were, for once, the jackpot zone in all of the models. 16-20", and from how the storm was overperforming in the midwest it seemed like 2 feet was within reach. Every model was on board the night before, with the exception of the old RAP (I think) which had the heaviest snow sliding south, although it was still giving me 8-10". I went to bed expecting to wake up to heavy snow and no classes. When I woke up I heard a car passing on the road outside, and it sounded like it was driving through slush rather than compacted snow as you would expect in a big storm. Sure enough, when I looked outside we had 2 inches of pixie dust and a slushy coating on all the roads, with light snow falling. As it turned out, the RAP was right about the track, and a deathband had set up over an Oneonta-Binghamton-Elmira axis that ended up dropping 24-30" along most of the I-88 corridor. The subsidence from that band killed us and Ithaca ended up with 6", which was pretty much the lowest amount anyone in Upstate got from that storm (areas to the west cashed in more since the deathband hadn't set up yet and there was less subsidence, and areas to the north got lake enhancement and were north of the worst subsidence). Probably my worst weather memory.