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About kvskelton

  • Birthday 11/02/1964

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
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  • Location:
    Kingsport, TN

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  1. Unfortunately it's not really that surprising, nor has it been for quite a while. When you figure in warm nose, dry slotting and the dreaded "cold chasing rain" that always seems to plague parts of the valley (not to mention the various micro climates and the dreaded "Eastman Dome"), big hitters are usually a gamble in our area. And each part of the valley has its own set of unique circumstances that factor into the results of each system. Basically, a lot of things have to go right for us to get a wide spread "big dog." I'm an old guy (well, 57) and remember when 6" snows were the norm, not the exception. And while yes, wide spread 8" snows are rare these days, Kingsport had over 9" on 9 DEC 2018. My advice is hang on, don't live and die by the next model run (not saying you are, just saying to folks in general) and enjoy whatever comes. Yes, we may miss out but someone in our forum area will probably jackpot with this one. I'm happy for them and know that eventually we'll get our turn. Of course I was 29 when the Blizzard of 93 hit, so I've got no right to hope for snow the rest of my life!
  2. Having the same problems with Radarscope in regards to the Morristown MRX radar. Latest reading is over 2 hours old, while Nashville MRX reading is current. Poor time for this to happen.
  3. What a perfect segue into another episode of Story Time with the Old Surveyor. About a dozen years ago I was behind a surveying instrument as we did a topographical survey in the Bays Mountain area of Kingsport. It was late spring and the weather had turned nice, though the leaves were barely budding out. I was on a slope of about 30 degrees or so. Focused on the rodmen, I had this strange sensation that I was being watched. After a moment I looked to my right (down slope). About 75 yards away, with her back up against an old hickory stump was a goodly sized black bear. She was sitting on her haunches and her eyes were locked on me. That was pretty unnerving...but what really got my heart racing were the two cubs playing at her feet! Needless to say, the surveying instrument was left behind as everyone made a quick exit until she and her youngin's made a leisurely departure. I've had encounters with lots of wildlife during 30 years of surveying, but that one really got my attention.
  4. SPC AC 250559 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL...EASTERN AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is expected today into early this evening across parts of the Southeast northward into the Tennessee Valley. Several long-track strong tornadoes, destructive winds and very large hail are forecast from the Lower Mississippi Valley, eastward across parts of the Southeast and northward into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. ...Tornado Outbreak Expected Across Parts of the Southeast and Tennessee Valley Today into Early This Evening... ...Southeast/Tennessee and Ohio Valleys... A potent shortwave trough and an associated 75 to 90 kt mid-level jet will eject quickly northeastward across the southern Plains today. At the surface, a low will move northeastward and deepen across the Arklatex and mid Mississippi Valley today. Strong moisture advection will take place in the lower Mississippi Valley as a 50 to 65 kt low-level jet strengthens. Surface dewpoints will increase into the 65 to 70 F degree range by late morning throughout much of eastern Louisiana, Mississippi and western Alabama. The low-level moisture combined with surface heating will result in a moderately unstable and volatile airmass by late morning. A band of strong large-scale ascent, in advance of the shortwave trough, will move quickly northeastward across the Arklatex this morning. Convection appears likely to initiate around midday ahead of this band of ascent from southeast Arkansas southward into northeast Louisiana and eastward into southwest Mississippi. This cluster of thunderstorms is expected to organize and rapidly intensify, moving northeastward across central and northern Mississippi into northwestern Alabama during the afternoon. Moderate instability, strong deep-layer shear and impressive amount of lift on a large scale will be favorable for widespread severe thunderstorm development, and a tornado outbreak is expected. RAP and NAM Forecast soundings this afternoon across the warm sector from central Mississippi northeastward into northwest Alabama show an impressive environment for severe storms. MLCAPE is forecast to increase into the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range across much of central and northern Mississippi by midday. Surface winds are forecast to become backed to the south-southeast across the eastern half of Mississippi. This combined with 60 kt of flow near 850 mb will result in 0-3 km storm relative helicities in the 400 to 500 m2/s2 range. In addition, the progressive nature of the mid-level jet will be optimal for the development of tornadic storms. Supercells are forecast to develop rapidly after initiation across central Mississippi early this afternoon and move quickly north-northeastward into northeast Mississippi. Significant tornado parameter is forecast to increase to near ten across northeast Mississippi and northwest Alabama by 21Z, making conditions very favorable for long-track strong tornadoes. As the low-level jet consolidates and couples with the progressive mid-level jet, a violent long-track tornado will be possible. The cluster of severe thunderstorms is expected to move from parts of northern Mississippi and northern Alabama into the Tennessee Valley late this afternoon and early this evening. Supercells and bowing line segments will likely be severe, producing wind damage, tornadoes and large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter may occur with the stronger updraft cores. The wind damage threat is forecast to become more widespread as a squall line organizes along a cold front in the Mississippi Valley. This line of severe storms is forecast to move quickly eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys this evening, producing widespread wind damage. Wind gusts of greater than 65 knots will be possible. Further north in areas near the Ohio River, instability is forecast to be considerably weaker than in areas to the south. In spite of the weaker instability, enhanced lift and strong deep-layer shear will make severe storms possible. As storms move north-northeastward across the Ohio Valley this evening, isolated large hail and wind damage will accompany supercells and bow echoes. An isolated tornado threat will also exist. ..Broyles/Cook.. 03/25/2021 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z CURRENT UTC TIME: 1157Z (7:57AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
  5. I don't know, Carver's; looking at that map we may be in he best spot possible! Is that area of less zr from Johnson City to near Wytheville caused by the warm air taking longer to be scoured out after being trapped by the front or are the Apps wringing out moisture? Or the TEC dome? Oh and be sure to get yourself something REAL nice! Holston, in case you didn't hear that full story, that was an actual announcement made on the radio (WQUT) several times during the Blizzard of 93! I'm honored that Stovepipe keeps it alive in his signature!
  6. A friend of mine sent me a link this afternoon and evidently someone had also edited the wiki page of Tony Elliot saying he was the new coach at UT! Someone's having fun with the UT fans, I do believe...
  7. Thunder rumbling in Kingsport at the moment...
  8. Pictures from my daughter in Bristol, VA. She said the trip in to work was dicey. Thankfully her boyfriend has a 4wd.
  9. Not for TRI! Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Morristown TN 351 PM EST Thu Jan 7 2021 TNZ016-017-039-040-042-044-046-070-071-073-VAZ008-080500- /O.EXB.KMRX.WS.W.0001.210108T0600Z-210109T0000Z/ Hawkins-Sullivan-Hamblen-Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene- Washington-Northwest Carter-Jefferson-Northwest Blount- North Sevier- Including the cities of Mooresburg, Kingsport, Bristol TN, South Holston Dam, Alpha, Morristown, Russellville, Bybee, Newport, Greeneville, Johnson City, Elizabethton, Jefferson City, Strawberry Plains, Chestnut Hill, Dandridge, White Pine, Happy Valley, Maryville, Alcoa, Harrisburg, Kodak, McMahan, Sevierville, Seymour, Pigeon Forge, Benhams, Bristol VA, and Abingdon 351 PM EST Thu Jan 7 2021 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches, with increased amounts possible in the higher elevations. * WHERE...Portions of east Tennessee and southwest Virginia. * WHEN...From 1 AM to 7 PM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of weather information for the latest updates. Additional details can be found at www.weather.gov/mrx.
  10. @BuCoVaWx Welcome! You're definitely in the right forum! I think like most of us in the NETN/SWVA area, the model trend of the storm backing to the NW is concerning. That said I think we're still in the game for accumulation. The next few model runs will be very telling. If the NW trend continues, then I'll be concerned for my back yard for sure.
  11. @Kentucky I believe that can be said by most of us in this forum! @bluegrassweather71 Welcome to the forum! I'm a longtime member with a terminal case of lurkeritis myself. Great to have you join us!
  12. I think the timing of this investigation could be very telling. I have heard that a level 1 or 2 violation could result in Pruitt being fired with cause and without a buyout, where a lower violation could give UT the leverage to negotiate a lower buyout. If UT could negotiate a lower buyout, while giving up a bowl game this year (much like LSU has done) and maybe lose a scholarship or two for a brief period, I think the University comes out way ahead. Especially factoring in that payments to Butch Jones for his buyout are over in February, I believe (Though the last 1 or 2 may be eliminated by his taking the HC job at Arkansas State). I think Pruitt is a very good DC and may make a decent HC one day. But the lack of development of the Vols after his 3 years of being head coach is telling as to his ability to lead a P5 program at this time. Then again it's 2020, so heck, he may end up with another extension and raise for all I know!
  13. Had a light dusting in the Colonial Heights area of Kingsport this morning. It was a nice surprise! Got this photo from my daughter from her place in Bristol, VA this morning as well. Looks like they did well!
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