January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage Thread 2

[300 square feet]

Not happy about this trend to a more icy solution. Let’s hope the models change course tomorrow.  

[Eskimo Joe]

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Euro going the wrong way. Each run has less snow and more sleet/fr rain for I-95 and points SE. Can hope its wrong, but most likely its not lol.

Agreed. The bleeding needs to stop and quick.

[TSSN+]

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Euro going the wrong way. Each run has less snow and more sleet/fr rain for I-95 and points SE. Can hope its wrong, but most likely its not lol.

Ya hope it stops moving nw. I have no interest in freezing rain from this one. 

[SnowGolfBro]

13 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Plenty of our storms are Miller B, including some rather epic ones(see Feb 2010). More of these type, or a hybrid of such, occur than a pure Miller A. Not sure why some think they are "bad". 

Totally agree. Maybe caught up in the moment. And also the B’s tend to be more complicated for us. Appreciate the follow up!

[JenkinsJinkies]

8 minutes ago, T. August said:

DC loses .6” of precip due to non snow precipitation

QPF or snow accumulation because that’s two different things.

[T. August]

Just now, JenkinsJinkies said:

QPF or snow accumulation because that’s two different things.

Qpf. That’s why DC’s total at 10:1 is on the way to putrid.

[ravensrule]

6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Euro going the wrong way. Each run has less snow and more sleet/fr rain for I-95 and points SE. Can hope its wrong, but most likely its not lol.

 

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

What does that have to do with my observation of the last few runs?

You wrote can hope it’s wrong but most likely not, nobody is hoping it’s wrong. We just want to see what the new data does. I know you’re on the coast so that’s probably why you’re all gloomy. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Anybody got 10:1 snow map for the 18z Euro?

[clskinsfan]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Well ofc. I don't give a fuck about your yard lol

Snow is most definitely an imby game.

[mitchnick]

Let's not forget how amp crazy the Euro can be. Just sayin'. The difference between this forecast and the Gfs isn't that much. But I  do agree the bleeding needs to stop.

[Buddy1987]

Euro an unmitigated disaster with 1.35” of Freezing Rain down this way. 

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Let's not forget how amp crazy the Euro can be. Just sayin'. The difference between this forecast and the Gfs isn't that much. But I  do agree the bleeding needs to stop.

Hopefully they’re just narrowing things down and meet in the middle or even closer to Euro’s side, then we’re fine. Unfortunately it’s a bit of a forum divider in terms of mixing.  

[LeesburgWx]

People just toss every other model and take euros output as gospel. Yes, it’s one of the best models, but a blend is ideal. The back and forth in here today is tough, but it’s a imby game and we are on the edge, so I guess it makes sense.

[SBYWeather]

Quite a big change at 500mb on the 18z euro. The end result didn't change a lot at the surface, but this is a pretty significant change at the upper levels, curious to see how this plays out at 0z. 

[ravensrule]

Just now, Terpeast said:

Hopefully they’re just narrowing things down and meet in the middle or even closer to Euro’s side, then we’re fine. Unfortunately it’s a bit of a forum divider in terms of mixing.  

Unfortunately I don’t feel bad, I have gotten screwed royally since 2016 while south and east have cleaned up. Screw the forum divider lol. Do i sound like @CAPEnow?. 

[mattskiva]

Well ofc. I don't give a fuck about your yard lol

Climo is climo for a reason - like it or not this feels like the most likely solution based on historical analogs. But yeah we all want it to snow IMBY


.

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, SBYWeather said:

Quite a big change at 500mn on the 18z euro. The end result didn't change a lot at the surface but this is a pretty significant change at the upper levels, curious to see how this plays out at 0z. 

Less phasing, more confluence (TPV up top that wasn’t shown in 12z)

[Maestrobjwa]

At least 6"-10" is still on the table. Just don't want this trend to take that away too. If I can't break the 10 year-long warning snowfall drought with this storm then mean how? Lol

[mitchnick]

Eps

[clskinsfan]

4 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Euro an unmitigated disaster with 1.35” of Freezing Rain down this way. 

Yeah. I am really concerned for you guys in southern VA. What is being modelled is catastrophic down there.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Moderate snow storm to ice and then extreme cold is still awesome I am not being a Deb but that’s how it looks now for dc metro.  Of course it can trend back colder but usually it seems like they don’t. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

Welp I’m pulling out, I’ve been down this road before and I’m not going to hit that wall again. I’ll check again tomorrow morning but I’m not holding my breath.

I am not saying it won’t snow, but I’m not holding my breath for a large event at this point.

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, ravensrule said:

 

You wrote can hope it’s wrong but most likely not, nobody is hoping it’s wrong. We just want to see what the new data does. I know you’re on the coast so that’s probably why you’re all gloomy. 

I'm not gloomy. I don't expect the Euro to vary its outcome by much from this point forward. Not generally what it does.

The ingesting new/better sampled data thing- do you know how many desperate weenies have used that one in this forum over the years? Its in the rule book lol

[Terpeast]

I’m also starting to think that the new data from the southern piece may not even change things all that much. Everything comes down to what’s going on over Canada. Hope they ingest data from up there. 

[SBYWeather]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

Less phasing, more confluence (TPV up top tha wasn’t shown in 12z)

Surprised we didn't see more changes at the surface but I would imagine if that trend continued we will. 

[nj2va]

3 minutes ago, SBYWeather said:

Quite a big change at 500mb on the 18z euro. The end result didn't change a lot at the surface, but this is a pretty significant change at the upper levels, curious to see how this plays out at 0z. 

You'd think that would result in a less amped storm with those changes at 500.

[WVclimo]

[Weather Will]

Lived in PG county for 30 years, Ellicott City 20 years, and into my 7th winter in Brunswick.  Biggest snow since I've been here looks to be on the doorstep. Once in awhile, the people living 50 miles plus NW of work in DC deserve a big snow storm.  Hopefully everyone gets a 10 inch thump before the changeover.  Looking at the weeklies, there will be other chances.

[Bob Chill]

8 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Euro an unmitigated disaster with 1.35” of Freezing Rain down this way. 

I'm pretty skeptical of the zr output for now. Imo, it would be more sleet than zr. I'll check 18z soundings when they come out but if they aren't much different then 12z I expect much more sleet than the panels posted above

[WEATHER53]

52 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

 

I love  when people tell you they don’t have time to but have time to tell you they don’t