“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco

[40/70 Benchmark]

Hell, recall Dec 2020....  @dendritewas the butt of all cirrus jokes, and ended up with 40".

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

What’s up with the hyperbole today? We analyze model runs here…even the ones that aren’t the snowiest or the ones that tick SE. 

No one is saying the large scale features are changing. It’s just IMBY posts.

But I do get a kick out of latching onto the roided out mesos yet when they nuke into NNE they get tossed for being over done.

Never change weenies.

But who’s to say they’re overdone?

[Sey-Mour Snow]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That was ridiculous and one of the worst busts in recent memory.
 

Though I’ll also say that those forecasts from OKX seemed a little crazy…I remember at the time we were all kind of wondering why so much faith in Euro…despite it being the best model. Lot of other mesos like the RGEM (which really nailed the death band) showed potential issues to the west. I don’t think any models showed 7” of snow there but some of them were more like 8-14” or so. Could’ve split the difference and went 1-2 feet and it wouldn’t have felt quite as bad. 

I was just talking about the opposite this time.. This time 11-15" is Upton's call (too much faith in EURO again).. 

[dendrite]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

But who’s to say they’re overdone?

We just don’t know.

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Hell, recall Dec 2020....  @dendritewas the butt of all cirrus jokes, and ended up with 40".

I had over 1” QPF on some of those runs leading up to it. The RGEM hit that band hard the night before too. But I understand your point.

[vortex95]

3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

That was us in Juno 6-8" fell .. Forecast was 24-36" .. nws map had the 36-39" bullseye over my house still have the images on my phone for inspiration/rage when I need it.

I recall that well.  OKX NWS explicitly forecast 24-36" for NYC, an all-time record snowfall.  Even close to the event, there was not good agreement for that kind of snow for NYC, yet they bought the ECMWF completely (surprise, surprise), and it was massive fail.  Yes, up to a foot fell in NYC, but the psychological impact alone of forecasting 24-36" for NYC is immense, and you simply do not do that unless you have a damn good reason to do so.  And was forecasting a more modest 12-24" so hard?  That still is a blockbuster for NYC and same preparations would be made.  If it ends up more, so what?  You end up looking better in the end.

[78Blizzard]

Ukie held serve from 12z - no eastward shift.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That was ridiculous and one of the worst busts in recent memory.
 

Though I’ll also say that those forecasts from OKX seemed a little crazy…I remember at the time we were all kind of wondering why so much faith in Euro…despite it being the best model. Lot of other mesos like the RGEM (which really nailed the death band) showed potential issues to the west. I don’t think any models showed 7” of snow there but some of them were more like 8-14” or so. Could’ve split the difference and went 1-2 feet and it wouldn’t have felt quite as bad. 

I was all over models being too quick with the capture on that....I remember I opined on it in the NYC thread and had to run for my life....but nailed it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, dendrite said:

I had over 1” QPF on some of those runs leading up to it. The RGEM hit that band hard the night before too. But I understand your point.

Right....and my area has around an inch now....not that I expected that, but you get why I'm trying not to lose it.

[dendrite]

Never forget. Sorry NYC

[dendrite]

 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I was just talking about the opposite this time.. This time 11-15" is Upton's call (too much faith in EURO again).. 

yeah seems a little light. You want to include some realistic upper bound in there like 18-20”….obviously it could be higher too but at least go up to the 75% range. 

[H2Otown_WX]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Never forget. Sorry NYC

My all time greatest melt

[Ginx snewx]

Rap da da Rap they call me the Rapper 

[Masswx]

I feel that hype Im this forum has definitely died down with these 12z and 18z trends despite everybody being concerned about global and not close range models because “it’s too far out”-dad but I think meso models should definitely carry more weight than globals although nice that the euro ticked north and increased qpf. Nice gfs run at 0z and Nam and Reggie and hrrr do are good everybody will say we’re back!

[vortex95]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Rap da da Rap they call me the Rapper 

 

[FXWX]

22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I agree, but if I get 5", I'll break every single one of my kid's toys.

As you should... Maybe kick the dog while you're at it... Lol

[Greg]

18 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

1978 was nothing special in the Springfield area. The initial thump was solid but after that I am pretty sure the valley sucked exhaust for the next 24 hours before maybe a few parting storm snow showers. I think only 12 to 15 inches fell. BDL did a little better and my folks in Bristol CT swore it was close to two feet there. The big difference was all the blowing and drifting snow.

Nothing special? East Springfield got 22.5" (Pumping Station), 19" in Holyoke, 20.5" in Chicopee. This was outside of the down sloping/shadow effect of the River Valley. Those numbers were recorded by Coops back then. They are pretty solid.

[WalpoleJoe]

39 minutes ago, ChangeofSeasonsWX said:

I've always said that at some point in my life I would like to see something IMBY that rivals 1978. I certainly don't expect every biggie to reach those numbers but someday it would be fun to experience that. For the Cape 2005 was bigger than 1978 and for CT I guess it would be Nemo or 1888. 1978 is still the benchmark in the PVD area and while I know that this one wont surpass it, maybe it would come close if these top tier solutions verified.

Not to derail, I think '78, for everything written about it, is still underdone.  The drifts were amazing, 10 to 15 feet easy. I was from a family of 6 and only two of us, my mom who was home and me who could walk home from school (5th grade), made it home Monday. 3 of my siblings, who were in high schools in neighboring towns, did not make it home and my dad, whose work was in Pawtucket, was stuck on 95 and made it to a gas station were he stayed. He made it home Thursday with the big equipment from the Army Corps when they started to plow...it was amazing. This was for Cranston, btw.

[Snowcrazed71]

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Rap da da Rap they call me the Rapper 

Since we're within 24 hours of the start of the storm, doesn't it make more sense at this point anyway to use short-range models, not the long-range models like the Euro at GFS? 

I know the Nam is considered one of the short range models, is this also one of them?

[Torch Tiger]

15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Right....and my area has around an inch now....not that I expected that, but you get why I'm trying not to lose it.

when all is said and done, most likely outcome is similar to that that POS in 2022?  jmo

[Go Kart Mozart]

25 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

That was us in Juno 6-8" fell .. Forecast was 24-36" .. nws map had the 36-39" bullseye over my house still have the images on my phone for inspiration/rage when I need it.

How far out was that 36-39?  I've blocked the whole thing from my memory.

[CoastalWx]

Nice post Bryce!

[dendrite]

5 minutes ago, Masswx said:

I feel that hype Im this forum has definitely died down with these 12z and 18z trends despite everybody being concerned about global and not close range models because “it’s too far out”-dad but I think meso models should definitely carry more weight than globals although nice that the euro ticked north and increased qpf. Nice gfs run at 0z and Nam and Reggie and hrrr do are good everybody will say we’re back!

Some here only like to track storms. Once the storm hits they’d rather look at the 186hr ensembles instead of watching it snow 3”/hr.

[Lucy Pull]

Well 21z SREF’s don’t seem to be pulling a Lucy.

[Masswx]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Some here only like to track storms. Once the storm hits they’d rather look at the 186hr ensembles instead of watching it snow 3”/hr.

Not me!

[EastonSN+]

Anyone have the EPS?

[Masswx]

Just now, Lucy Pull said:

Well 21z SREF’s don’t seem to be pulling a Lucy.

Congrats dendrite?

[HIPPYVALLEY]

15 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

My all time greatest melt

You had one of the greatest melts of all time! 
Did you end up taking time away from the board after that one?

[EastonSN+]

Any suggestions for measuring in 50 mph gusts with snow already on the ground